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A politician claims that she will receive \(60 \%\) of the vote in an upcoming election. The results of a properly designed random sample of 100 voters showed that 50 of those sampled will vote for her. Is it likely that her assertion is correct at the 0.05 level of significance? a. Solve using the \(p\) -value approach. b. Solve using the classical approach.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Using both p-value and classical approach, we reject the null hypothesis that the politician will get 60% votes. Therefore, her claim is likely incorrect.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

The null hypothesis would be \( H_0 : p = 0.60 \), the politician is correct. The alternative hypothesis would be \( H_1: p \neq 0.60 \), the politician is not correct.
02

Compute the Test Statistic

The test statistic formula for a one sample proportion is \( Z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_{0}}{\sqrt{\frac{p_{0}(1 - p_{0})}{n}}}\), where, \(\hat{p} = \frac{x}{n}\) is the sample proportion, \(x = 50\) voters have expressed to vote her, \(p_{0} = 0.60, n = 100\). Here \( Z = \frac{0.50 - 0.60}{\sqrt{\frac{0.60 \times 0.40}{100}}} = -2 \).
03

Calculate the p-value

It's a two-tailed test so the p-value is two times the probability that a Z statistic is less than -2. As per standard normal distribution table, \(P(Z < -2) = 0.0228\). Therefore, the p-value = \(2 \times 0.0228 = 0.0456\).
04

Make a decision using p-value approach

We reject the null hypothesis if the p-value is less than or equal to the level of significance, which is 0.05 in this case. Since p-value \(0.0456 < 0.05\), we reject the null hypothesis and conclude that the politician's claim is likely incorrect.
05

Classical Approach - Compare test statistic with critical value

For two-tailed test with significance level \(\alpha = 0.05\), the critical value for Z is approximately \(\pm 1.96\). If the calculated test statistic lies in the critical region, we reject the null hypothesis. Our test statistic (-2) lies in the critical region hence we again reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Null Hypothesis
In any hypothesis test, the null hypothesis, denoted as \( H_0 \), represents the status quo or a default position that there is no difference or no effect. In the context of the presented exercise, the null hypothesis corresponds to the politician’s claim of receiving \(60\%\) of the vote, formally expressed as \( H_0 : p = 0.60 \). When performing the test, we initially assume the null hypothesis to be true and use statistical analysis to determine if there is sufficient evidence to reject it in favor of the alternative hypothesis.

It's crucial to frame the null hypothesis precisely since it defines the course of the testing procedure. If the evidence collected through a systematic method contradicts this hypothesis significantly, we consider it not likely to be true.
Alternative Hypothesis
The alternative hypothesis, \( H_1 \), is what a researcher aims to prove. It suggests that there is a significant difference or effect. In our example, the alternative hypothesis is that the politician will not receive exactly \(60\%\) of the vote. This is written as \( H_1: p eq 0.60 \).

The alternative hypothesis is directly opposed to the null hypothesis, and it encompasses every other possible outcome that is not covered by the null hypothesis. The determination of whether the null hypothesis is rejected or not hinges on the gathered data and the statistical test applied to it. If the null hypothesis is rejected, we accept the alternative hypothesis, which indicates a significant difference detected by the test.
P-value Approach
The p-value is the probability of observing data as extreme as, or more so, than what was actually observed, given that the null hypothesis is true. It is a measure used to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis.

To use the p-value approach, we compare the p-value to a pre-determined significance level, usually denoted as \(\alpha\). If the p-value is less than or equal to \(\alpha\), we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis. In our exercise, since the calculated p-value of \(0.0456\) is less than the level of significance \(0.05\), we reject the null hypothesis, indicating that the politician's claim is not supported by the data.
Test Statistic
The test statistic is a numerical value calculated from sample data during a hypothesis test. It is a standardized value that is used for hypothesis testing. In the case of testing a proportion, the test statistic can be calculated using the formula: \[ Z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_{0}}{\sqrt{\frac{p_{0}(1 - p_{0})}{n}}} \]

In this example, the test statistic is a Z-score, which measures the number of standard deviations a data point is from the population mean under the null hypothesis. With the given data (50 voters out of 100 in favor), the calculated Z-score is -2. This test statistic is later compared to values from the standard normal distribution to either support or reject the null hypothesis.
Level of Significance
The level of significance, denoted as \(\alpha\), is the cutoff point that you choose to determine whether to reject the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of making a Type I error, which occurs when the null hypothesis is true, but incorrectly rejected. A common choice for \(\alpha\) is \(0.05\) or \(5\%\).

The level of significance is set before examining the data, and it serves as a threshold for making our decision. For this exercise, the significance level of \(0.05\) means there is a \(5\%\) chance of concluding that the politician will not receive \(60\%\) of the votes when she actually will. Since the p-value in our test is below the defined significance level, we conclude that there is significant evidence to reject the null hypothesis at the \(5\%\) level of significance.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Karl Pearson once tossed a coin 24,000 times and recorded 12,012 heads. a. Calculate the point estimate for \(p=P(\) head ) based on Pearson's results. b. Determine the standard error of proportion. c. Determine the \(95 \%\) confidence interval estimate for \(p=P(\text { head })\). d. It must have taken Mr. Pearson many hours to toss a coin 24,000 times. You can simulate 24,000 coin tosses using the computer and calculator commands that follow. (Note: A Bernoulli experiment is like a "single" trial binomial experiment. That is, one toss of a coin is one Bernoulli experiment with \(p=0.5;\) and 24,000 tosses of a coin either is a binomial experiment with \(n=24,000\) or is 24,000 Bernoulli experiments. Code: \(0=\) tail, \(1=\) head. The sum of the 1 s will be the number of heads in the 24,000 tosses.) e. How do your simulated results compare with Pearson's? f. Use the commands (part d) and generate another set of 24,000 coin tosses. Compare these results to those obtained by Pearson. Also, compare the two simulated samples to each other. Explain what you can conclude from these results.

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