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91Ó°ÊÓ

The survival rate during a risky operation for patients with no other hope of survival is \(80 \% .\) What is the probability that exactly four of the next five patients survive this operation?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Use the calculated result from Step 4 as the short answer. This result represents the required probability that exactly four of the next five patients survive this operation.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the variables

In this problem, we have n (number of trials) = 5 (next five patients), x (number of 'successes') = 4 (exactly four patients survive), and p (probability of 'success' on any given trial) = 0.8 (80% survival rate)
02

Apply the binomial probability formula

Plug the identified variables into the binomial probability formula. So, \(P(x; n, p) = C(n, x) \cdot p^x \cdot (1-p)^{n-x}\). Replace \(n\), \(x\), and \(p\) with their respective values, we have \(C(5, 4) \cdot 0.8^4 \cdot (1-0.8)^{5-4}\)
03

Calculate the combinations and probabilities

First, calculate \(C(5, 4)\), which is the number of ways you can choose 4 successes from 5 trials. Then, calculate \(0.8^4\) (the probability of 4 successes) and \((1-0.8)^{5-4}\) (the probability of 1 failure).
04

Multiply all the results

Finally, multiply all these results together to get the overall probability that exactly four of the next five patients survive this operation. The obtained result is the required answer.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combination Formula
When solving problems involving binomial probability, one important component is the combination formula. This formula helps determine how many different ways an event can occur when the order of outcomes doesn't matter. It's written as \( C(n, x) \) or sometimes \( \binom{n}{x} \). Here, \( n \) represents the total number of trials or items, and \( x \) is the number of successful outcomes you are interested in finding.

The combination formula is defined as:
\[ C(n, x) = \frac{n!}{x!(n-x)!} \]
where \(!\) denotes factorial, meaning the product of all positive integers up to that number. For example, \( 5! = 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 120 \).

In our exercise, calculating \( C(5, 4) \) tells us how many ways we can choose 4 patients to survive out of 5. The formula simplifies the process of solving complex probability questions by providing the number of favorable outcomes.
Probability Calculation
Calculating probability involves measuring the likelihood of a certain event occurring. In the context of binomial probability, like our problem with patient survival rates, we use a specialized formula to determine this likelihood.

The binomial probability formula is:
\[ P(x; n, p) = C(n, x) \cdot p^x \cdot (1-p)^{n-x} \]
Here, \( P(x; n, p) \) is the probability of exactly \( x \) successes in \( n \) trials, \( p \) represents the probability of success on a single trial, and \( (1-p) \) is the probability of failure.

In the problem at hand:
  • \( n = 5 \), as there are five patients.
  • \( x = 4 \), because we want exactly four to survive.
  • \( p = 0.8 \), representing the 80% survival rate.
By substituting these values into the binomial probability formula, we can calculate the overall probability of the desired outcome.
Survival Rate
The term survival rate in this scenario refers to the likelihood that a patient will survive the operation. This is expressed as a percentage or a decimal. For example, an 80% survival rate is equivalent to a probability of 0.8.

Understanding survival rate is crucial in medical statistics, where it can inform decisions about treatment effectiveness and patient prognosis. In mathematical terms, the survival rate is used as the probability \( p \) in binomial probability formula calculations, representing the probability of a single trial resulting in success.

Thus, this survival rate directly impacts the probability we calculate for multiple trials, like estimating how many patients out of five will survive based on the 80% rate. As probabilities can vary based on conditions and sample size, it's essential to consider how these rates influence statistical predictions.
Elementary Statistics
Elementary statistics serve as the foundational tools and concepts that help in understanding data and probabilities in real-world scenarios. They include basic statistical measures like mean, median, mode, range, and concepts such as probability distributions and normal distribution.

Binomial probability, as used in this exercise, is an elementary statistical concept that applies to scenarios with fixed numbers of trials, two possible outcomes per trial (like survival or not surviving), where each trial is independent of others. You'll often encounter these concepts in introductory statistics courses.

Using statistics to describe and predict outcomes in everyday scenarios, like the likelihood of a patient surviving surgery, helps bridge theoretical mathematics and practical applications. A foundation in elementary statistics enables the deeper analysis and interpretation of data, crucial skills in many fields from healthcare to business.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider a binomial experiment made up of three trials with outcomes of success, \(S,\) and failure, \(F,\) where \(P(S)=p\) and \(P(F)=q.\) a. Complete the accompanying tree diagram. Label all branches completely. b. In column (b) of the tree diagram, express the probability of each outcome represented by the branches as a product of powers of \(p\) and \(q.\) c. Let \(x\) be the random variable, the number of successes observed. In column (c), identify the value of\(x\) for each branch of the tree diagram. d. Notice that all the products in column (b) are made up of three factors and that the value of the random variable is the same as the exponent for the number\(p .\) Write the equation for the binomial probability function for this situation.

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The town council has nine members. A proposal to establish a new industry in this town has been tabled, and all proposals must have at least two-thirds of the votes to be accepted. If we know that two members of the town council are opposed and that the others randomly vote "in favor" and "against," what is the probability that the proposal will be accepted?

In a germination trial, 50 seeds were planted in each of 40 rows. The number of seeds germinating in each row was recorded as listed in the following table. $$\begin{array}{cc|cc}\begin{array}{c}\text { Number } \\\\\text { Germinated }\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}\text { Number } \\\\\text { of Rows }\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}\text { Number } \\\\\text { Germinated }\end{array} & \begin{array}{c}\text { Number } \\\\\text { of Rows }\end{array} \\\\\hline 39 & 1 & 45 & 8 \\\40 & 2 & 46 & 4 \\\41 & 3 & 47 & 3 \\\42 & 4 & 48 & 1 \\\43 & 6 & 49 & 1 \\\44 & 7 & & \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ a. Use the preceding frequency distribution table to determine the observed rate of germination for these seeds. b. The binomial probability experiment with its corresponding probability distribution can be used with the variable "number of seeds germinating per row" when 50 seeds are planted in every row. Identify the specific binomial function and list its distribution using the germination rate found in part a. Justify your answer. c. Suppose you are planning to repeat this experiment by planting 40 rows of these seeds, with 50 seeds in each row. Use your probability model from part b to find the frequency distribution for \(x\) that you would expect to result from your planned experiment. d. Compare your answer in part c with the results that were given in the preceding table. Describe any similarities and differences.

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