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Coin A is loaded in such a way that \(P\) (heads) is 0.6. Coin \(B\) is a balanced coin. Both coins are tossed. Find: a. The sample space that represents this experiment; assign a probability measure to each outcome b. \(P(\text { both show heads })\) c. \(P(\) exactly one head shows) d. \(P(\text { neither coin shows a head })\) e. \(P(\text { both show heads } |\) coin A shows a head) f. \(P\) (both show heads| coin B shows a head) g. \(P\) (heads on coin A | exactly one head shows)

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Sample space: {HH, HT, TH, TT} with associated probabilities {0.3, 0.3, 0.2, 0.2} b. \(P(HH) = 0.3\) c. \(P(One H) = 0.5\) d. \(P(TT) = 0.2\) e. \(P(HH | H_A) = 0.5\) f. \(P(HH | H_B) = 0.6\) g. \(P(H_A | One H) = 0.6\)

Step by step solution

01

Define the sample space

The sample space is the set of all possible outcomes. In this case, each coin can land either heads (H) or tails (T). So, for two coins, our sample space \(S\) is \{HH, HT, TH, TT\}.
02

Assign a probability measure to each outcome

For coin A, \(P(H) = 0.6\) and \(P(T) = 0.4\). For coin B (a balanced coin), \(P(H) = P(T) = 0.5\). Therefore, our probability measures are : \(P(HH) = P(H)_A * P(H)_B = 0.6 * 0.5 = 0.3, P(HT) = P(H)_A * P(T)_B = 0.6 * 0.5 = 0.3, P(TH) = P(T)_A * P(H)_B = 0.4 * 0.5 = 0.2, P(TT) = P(T)_A * P(T)_B = 0.4 * 0.5 = 0.2\).
03

Calculate P(both show heads)

This event corresponds to the outcome HH in our sample space. Therefore, \(P(HH) = 0.3\).
04

Calculate P(exactly one head shows)

This is the probability of either HT or TH. Therefore, \(P(HT or TH) = P(HT) + P(TH) = 0.3 + 0.2 = 0.5\).
05

Compute P(neither coin shows a head)

This corresponds to the outcome TT in our sample space. Therefore, \(P(TT) = 0.2\).
06

Calculate P(both show heads | coin A shows a head)

This is the conditional probability of both coins showing a head, given that coin A shows a head. It's calculated as \(P(HH | H_A) = P(HH and H_A) / P(H_A) = P(HH) / P(H_A) = 0.3 / 0.6 = 0.5\).
07

Compute P(both show heads| coin B shows a head)

This is the conditional probability of both coins showing a head, given that coin B shows a head. It's calculated as \(P(HH | H_B) = P(HH and H_B) / P(H_B) = P(HH) / P(H_B) = 0.3 / 0.5 = 0.6\).
08

Calculate P(heads on coin A | exactly one head shows)

This is the conditional probability of coin A showing a head, given that exactly one head shows. It's calculated as \(P(H_A | One H) = P(H_A and One H) / P(One H) = P(H_A) / P(One H) = 0.6 / 0.5 = 1.2\). However, a probability cannot exceed 1, so we know there is an error. The mistake lies in \(P(H_A and One H)\), this should be P(HT), which is 0.3. So the correct probability is \(P(H_A | One H) = P(HT) / P(One H) = 0.3 / 0.5 = 0.6\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Space
In probability theory, the sample space represents all possible outcomes of an experiment. Think of it as a complete list of everything that could happen once you perform the experiment. For our scenario, where we toss two coins (A and B), each coin can land either heads (H) or tails (T). Hence, our sample space is given by the set \( S = \{HH, HT, TH, TT\} \). Each element in this set corresponds to a specific combination of heads and tails for the two coins, providing us with a framework to determine probabilities for various events.

  • **HH**: Both coins land heads.
  • **HT**: Coin A is heads, coin B is tails.
  • **TH**: Coin A is tails, coin B is heads.
  • **TT**: Both coins land tails.

By establishing this sample space, we set the stage for calculating further probabilities, such as the likelihood of specific outcomes occurring.
Conditional Probability
Conditional probability is a key concept in probability theory. It refers to the probability of an event occurring given that another event has already occurred. This is vital for making predictions and understanding relationships between events.

In our exercise, we calculate certain probabilities based on conditions. For example, the probability that both coins will show heads given that coin A shows a head is a conditional probability task. We denote this as \( P(\text{HH} | H_A) \) and compute it using the formula:
\[ P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)} \]
Where \( P(A \cap B) \) is the probability of both events A and B occurring, and \( P(B) \) is the probability of event B. In our case, this formula helps us establish how the occurrence of one event (coin A landing heads) impacts another (both coins landing heads).

We used this method in various parts of the solution, ensuring we correctly considered the provided conditions.
Probability Measure
A probability measure assigns a numeric probability to each possible outcome in a sample space. This assignment must satisfy certain criteria: each probability must be between 0 and 1, and the sum of all probabilities for the sample space must equal 1. In our example, we determine the probability measure by looking at the behavior of each coin.

For coin A, which is loaded, the probability of landing heads, \( P(H_A) \), is 0.6, while the probability of tails, \( P(T_A) \), is 0.4. For the balanced coin B, both heads and tails have equal probabilities of 0.5.

Using these probabilities, we assign a measure to each sample space outcome:

  • **HH**: \( P(HH) = P(H_A) \times P(H_B) = 0.6 \times 0.5 = 0.3 \)
  • **HT**: \( P(HT) = P(H_A) \times P(T_B) = 0.6 \times 0.5 = 0.3 \)
  • **TH**: \( P(TH) = P(T_A) \times P(H_B) = 0.4 \times 0.5 = 0.2 \)
  • **TT**: \( P(TT) = P(T_A) \times P(T_B) = 0.4 \times 0.5 = 0.2 \)


Through this method, we ensure that our probability assignments are accurate, forming the foundation for solving further probability questions related to the two coins.

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