/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 102 He is the last guy you want to s... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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He is the last guy you want to see in your rearview mirror when you are speeding down the highway, but research shows that a traffic ticket reduces a driver's chance of being involved in a fatal accident, at least for a few weeks. By age group, \(13.3 \%\) of all drivers are younger than age \(25,58.6 \%\) are between ages 25 and \(54,\) and \(28.1 \%\) are 55 or older. Statistics show that \(1.6 \%\) of the drivers younger than age \(25,2.2 \%\) of those ages 25 to \(54,\) and \(0.5 \%\) of those 55 or older will have an accident in the next month. What is the probability that a randomly identified driver will have an accident in the next month?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that a randomly identified driver will have an accident in the next month is approximately 1.6425 \%.

Step by step solution

01

Joint Probability Calculation for drivers under 25

The first group to consider is drivers younger than age 25. Given that the percentage of all drivers in this group is 13.3\% and the likelihood of them having an accident is 1.6\%, the joint probability is: (0.133 * 0.016) = 0.002128.
02

Joint Probability Calculation for drivers between 25 and 54

Next consider drivers aged between 25 and 54. Given that the percentage of all drivers in this group is 58.6\% and the likelihood of them having an accident is 2.2\%, the joint probability is: (0.586 * 0.022) = 0.012892.
03

Joint Probability Calculation for drivers over 55

Lastly consider drivers aged 55 or older. Given that the percentage of all drivers in this group is 28.1\% and the likelihood of them having an accident is 0.5\%, the joint probability is: (0.281 * 0.005) = 0.001405.
04

Summation of Joint Probabilities

The total probability is the sum of the individual joint probabilities calculated, which is: (0.002128 + 0.012892 + 0.001405) = 0.016425 or 1.6425 \%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
At its core, probability theory is a branch of mathematics that deals with quantifying the likelihood of events. It provides a framework for understanding and measuring uncertainty, enabling us to make predictions about outcomes of random events or processes.

For example, in the exercise given, probability theory is applied to assess the risk of different age groups of drivers being involved in an accident within a specific time frame. The concept of joint probability, central to this context, refers to the probability of two events happening at the same time. Here, it's the intersection between the age group of drivers and the probability of them having an accident in the next month.

In practice, probability theory informs many areas including statistics, finance, gaming, and even day-to-day decision making. By analyzing the given percentages and applying the rules of probability, we arrive at a nuanced understanding of the risks posed by various driver age groups.
Statistical Analysis
Moving beyond basic theory, statistical analysis involves collecting, reviewing, and interpreting data to discover patterns or trends. It often employs probability theory as a tool for making inferences about a larger population based on a sample.

In the context of our exercise, statistical analysis is used to infer the probability of accidents across different age groups. The given statistics represent a crucial piece of data from which we derive joint probabilities. The percent figures of drivers within each age category and the accident rates are samples that allow us to infer the overall likelihood of an accident occurring in the next month.

Importance of Data Representation

It is essential to clearly represent statistical data to ensure accuracy in calculations. A clear understanding of the data helps in avoiding errors and provides a more solid foundation for any conclusions drawn from the analysis. Practical applications of statistical analysis include market research, quality control, and policy development, making it a cornerstone of decision-making in many fields.
Probability Calculation
The probability calculation is a key part of solving problems related to chances and risks. This involves mathematical formulas and principles to compute the likelihood of various outcomes. In the given exercise, we calculate the joint probability, which is the measure of two independent events happening concurrently.

The steps to compute joint probability involve multiplication of the probability of each event. In this case, the probability of a driver being in a certain age group and the probability of that driver having an accident. The sum of these joint probabilities across all relevant groups then provides us with an overall probability. This figure is crucial for predicting events such as accidents.

Real-world Applications

Understanding how to calculate probabilities can be applied in real-world scenarios like risk assessment for insurance companies, predicting health outcomes in medical research, and even during strategic planning in business. Accurate probability calculations enable stakeholders to prepare better for the future by accounting for the inherent uncertainty in various situations.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The odds against throwing a pair of dice and getting a total of 5 are 8 to \(1 .\) The odds against throwing a pair of dice and getting a total of 10 are 11 to \(1 .\) What is the probability of throwing the dice twice and getting a total of 5 on the first throw and 10 on the second throw?

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a. Explain what is meant by the statement: "When a single die is rolled, the probability of a 1 is \(\frac{1}{6} "\) b. Explain what is meant by the statement: "When one coin is tossed one time, there is a \(50-50\) chance of getting a tail."

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