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Dr. Lynn Rogers of the North American Bear Center does research on bear cub survival. He observed 35 litters in 1996 . The distribution of cubs is shown in this table. Bear Litter Study \begin{tabular}{|l|c|c|c|c|} \hline Number of cubs & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 \\ \hline Number of litters & 2 & 8 & 22 & 3 \\ \hline \end{tabular} (The North Bearing News, July 1997) a. Describe a trial for this situation. Name one outcome. (A) b. Is each outcome equally likely? Explain. (a) c. Based on the given information, what is the probability that a litter will have exactly three cubs? (a)

Short Answer

Expert verified
A trial involves counting cubs in a litter; not all outcomes are equally likely. The probability of exactly 3 cubs is 0.63.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Table

The table provides the number of bear litters with 1, 2, 3, or 4 cubs. For example, 2 litters had 1 cub, 8 litters had 2 cubs, 22 litters had 3 cubs, and 3 litters had 4 cubs.
02

Describe a Trial

A trial involves observing a bear litter to count the number of cubs it contains. One possible outcome for this trial is observing a litter with exactly 3 cubs.
03

Determine if Outcomes are Equally Likely

Each outcome corresponds to a different count of cubs per litter. Given the varying frequencies (2, 8, 22, and 3), these outcomes are not equally likely, as some counts occur more frequently than others. For example, litters with 3 cubs are more frequent compared to litters with 1 cub.
04

Calculate the Probability

To determine the probability of a litter having exactly 3 cubs, divide the number of litters with 3 cubs by the total number of litters. This is calculated as \( \frac{22}{35} \approx 0.6286 \). Thus, the probability of having a litter with exactly 3 cubs is approximately 0.63.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Statistics
Statistics is the science of collecting, analyzing, and interpreting data. In the bear cub study, statistics helps us to understand patterns in animal reproduction. Dr. Lynn Rogers used the data from 35 litters to determine how many cubs were most commonly found in each litter. In statistics, this kind of data can be organized into a table to show the frequencies of different outcomes, like the number of bear cubs in each litter. This information helps researchers make informed conclusions about this bear population.

Statistical methods are essential in wildlife studies because they provide a clear way to present findings. By using statistics, researchers can offer insights into bear behavior and their likelihoods, which is crucial for species conservation. For instance, knowing the most common number of cubs can help conservationists predict population changes.
Data Analysis
Data analysis is the process of inspecting and interpreting raw data to discover useful information. In this case, analyzing Dr. Rogers's data on bear cubs involves looking at how many litters had certain numbers of cubs. Data analysis breaks down information into understandable parts and shows patterns or trends, such as which outcome occurs most frequently.

Conducting data analysis on the bear cub study, we realize that more litters had exactly three cubs than any other number. Key points include:
  • Collecting and organizing data to present it in easily understood tables.
  • Counting occurrences to find frequencies.
  • Interpreting what these frequencies mean for the study's subject—in this case, bear cub survival.
As data analysis uncovers these points, it helps take a large set of data and transform it into insightful information.
Probability Distribution
A probability distribution is a statistical function that defines how the values of a random variable are distributed. In simpler terms, it shows the likelihood of each outcome occurring. For the bear study, the probability distribution of the number of cubs per litter reveals which outcomes are more common.

In this particular study, we can determine the probability of each litter size using the frequency data. For example, the probability of a litter having exactly three cubs is calculated as 22 out of 35 litters, or roughly 0.63. This demonstrates which litter size happens most often and informs predictions about future litters.

Key points to understand with probability distribution are:
  • Each outcome of a random variable, like the number of cubs, has a probability associated with it.
  • These probabilities add up to 1 (or 100%).
  • The distribution helps in predicting future occurrences, guiding conservation efforts and resource planning.
Probability distribution is thus a vital tool in making educated predictions based on observed data.

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