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Senior Population The number of Americans age 65 or older can be modeled as $$ n(x)=-0.00082 x^{3}+0.059 x^{2}+0.183 x+34.42 $$ where output is measured in million people and \(x\) is the number of years since 2000 , projections through \(2050 .\) (Source: Based on dara from U.S. Bureau of the Census) a. What is the projected number of Americans 65 years of age and older in 2011 ? in \(2030 ?\) b. What is the rate of change of the projected number in $$ 2011 ? \text { in } 2030 ? $$ c. Calculate the percentage rate of change in the projected number in 2030 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
In 2011, 42.481 million; in 2030, 70.870 million; rate of change is 1.18 m/year in 2011, and 1.51 m/year in 2030, with a 2.13% increase.

Step by step solution

01

Setup the function for the year 2011

Since 2011 is 11 years after 2000, set \(x = 11\) in the function:\[ n(11) = -0.00082(11)^3 + 0.059(11)^2 + 0.183(11) + 34.42 \]
02

Calculate the projected population for 2011

Compute the value of \(n(11)\):\[ n(11) = -0.00082 \times 1331 + 0.059 \times 121 + 0.183 \times 11 + 34.42 \] = -1.091 + 7.139 + 2.013 + 34.42 = 42.481.Thus, the projected population in 2011 is 42.481 million.
03

Setup the function for the year 2030

Since 2030 is 30 years after 2000, set \(x = 30\) in the function:\[ n(30) = -0.00082(30)^3 + 0.059(30)^2 + 0.183(30) + 34.42 \]
04

Calculate the projected population for 2030

Compute the value of \(n(30)\):\[ n(30) = -0.00082 \times 27000 + 0.059 \times 900 + 0.183 \times 30 + 34.42 \] = -22.14 + 53.1 + 5.49 + 34.42 = 70.87.Thus, the projected population in 2030 is 70.87 million.
05

Find the derivative for the rate of change

Find the derivative \(n'(x)\) to determine the rate of change:\[ n'(x) = -0.00082 \, \cdot \, 3x^2 + 0.059 \, \cdot \, 2x + 0.183 \]\[ n'(x) = -0.00246x^2 + 0.118x + 0.183 \] {}.
06

Calculate the rate of change in 2011

Substitute \(x = 11\) into the derivative:\[ n'(11) = -0.00246 \times 121 + 0.118 \times 11 + 0.183 \]\[ n'(11) = -0.29766 + 1.298 + 0.183 \] = 1.18334.The rate of change in 2011 is approximately 1.18 million people per year.
07

Calculate the rate of change in 2030

Substitute \(x = 30\) into the derivative:\[ n'(30) = -0.00246 \times 900 + 0.118 \times 30 + 0.183 \]\[ n'(30) = -2.214 + 3.54 + 0.183 \]= 1.509.The rate of change in 2030 is approximately 1.51 million people per year.
08

Calculate the percentage rate of change for 2030

Compute the percentage rate of change using the formula \(\frac{n'(30)}{n(30)} \times 100\):\[ \text{Percentage Change} = \frac{1.509}{70.87} \times 100 \] = 2.13%.The percentage rate of change in 2030 is approximately 2.13%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Polynomial Functions
Polynomial functions are mathematical expressions involving variables raised to whole-number exponents. In our problem, we have the function \( n(x) = -0.00082x^{3} + 0.059x^{2} + 0.183x + 34.42 \). Here, \( n(x) \) models the population of Americans aged 65 or older between the years 2000 to 2050. The variables in polynomial functions have coefficients, which are numbers that multiply the variables' powers. For example, \(-0.00082, 0.059,\) and \(0.183\) are coefficients of the terms \(x^3, x^2,\) and \(x,\) respectively. The term \(34.42\) is a constant that remains the same no matter the value of \(x\). Using polynomial functions, you can calculate future projections by substituting years into the equation. For example, to find the population in 2011, substitute \(x = 11\) (since 2011 is 11 years from 2000) to find \(n(11)\). Each of the terms is then calculated by plugging into the expression, and finally, the results are summed to get the total number of the target group, projected as 42.481 million for 2011. This shows how polynomial functions can help predict future trends based on past data.
Rate of Change
The rate of change in the context of our polynomial function refers to how quickly the population of seniors is expected to increase or decrease each year. Calculus helps us find the rate of change using derivatives. In this problem, the derivative of the polynomial function \( n(x) \) is used to find \( n'(x) = -0.00246x^2 + 0.118x + 0.183 \). The derivative, \( n'(x) \), is interpreted as the rate at which the senior population is changing at a given year \( x \). For example, to find the rate of change in 2011, substitute \(x = 11\) into the derivative, resulting in \( n'(11) = 1.18334 \). This means that in 2011, the population of older Americans was increasing by approximately 1.18 million people per year.Similarly, substituting \(x = 30\) for 2030 into the derivative yields a change rate of 1.51 million people per year. Observing rate changes across different years helps understand aspects like growth trends and planning for future infrastructural needs. For example, knowing the rate at which the elderly population increases can potentially influence healthcare planning and social security adjustments.
Percentage Change
Percentage change is a valuable way of expressing changes in population as a proportion of the initial amount. This is particularly useful in understanding relative growth over time. In our exercise, to find the percentage change in 2030, we use the formula:\[\text{Percentage Change} = \left(\frac{n'(30)}{n(30)}\right) \times 100\]The percentage change illustrates how much the population's size changes relative to its total in that year. By calculating \( n'(30) = 1.509 \) and \( n(30) = 70.87 \), we find the percentage by solving:\[\text{Percentage Change} = \left(\frac{1.509}{70.87}\right) \times 100 \approx 2.13\%\]This calculation shows that in 2030, the projected senior population is increasing at approximately 2.13% relative to its size at that time. Understanding percentage changes is pivotal because it provides a normalized manner to discuss changes over time, and it's especially helpful when comparing different populations or time periods. This understanding can guide government policies as they work to accommodate future demographic shifts efficiently.

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