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You are asked to match three songs with the performers who made those songs famous. If you guess, the probability distribution for the number of correct matches is: $$\begin{array}{|lrrrr|}\hline \text { Probability } & .333 & .500 & 0 & .167 \\\\\text { Number correct } & 0 & 1 & 2 & 3 \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ What is the probability you get: a. Exactly one correct? b. At least one correct? C. Exactly two correct? d. Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation of this distribution.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a) 0.5; b) 0.667; c) 0; d) Mean = 1.001, Variance = 1.001, Std Dev ≈ 1.001.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the probability of exactly one correct guess

The provided probability distribution table indicates that the probability of guessing exactly one correct match is 0.5. Thus, \( P(X = 1) = 0.5 \).
02

Determine the probability of at least one correct guess

To find the probability of at least one correct guess, we add the probabilities of getting 1, 2, or 3 correct matches. Additionally, it can be more simply calculated by subtracting the probability of getting 0 correct, which is \( 0.333 \) from 1.\[ P(X \geq 1) = 1 - P(X = 0) = 1 - 0.333 = 0.667 \]
03

Identify the probability of exactly two correct guesses

From the table, it is observed that the probability of guessing exactly two correct matches is given as 0. Thus, \( P(X = 2) = 0 \).
04

Compute the mean of the distribution

The mean \( \mu \) is calculated by multiplying each number of correct matches by its probability and summing the results.\[ \mu = (0 \times 0.333) + (1 \times 0.5) + (2 \times 0) + (3 \times 0.167) = 0 + 0.5 + 0 + 0.501 = 1.001 \]
05

Calculate the variance of the distribution

The variance \( \sigma^2 \) is found by computing the squared difference between each outcome and the mean, multiplied by its probability, and then summing these products.\[\sigma^2 = (0-1.001)^2 \times 0.333 + (1-1.001)^2 \times 0.5 + (2-1.001)^2 \times 0 + (3-1.001)^2 \times 0.167\]\[= 1.002001 \times 0.333 + 0.000001 \times 0.5 + 3.996001 \times 0 + 3.998001 \times 0.167\]\[= 0.333364333 + 0.0000005 + 0 + 0.667668167\]\[= 0.333364833 + 0.667668167 = 1.001033 \]
06

Find the standard deviation of the distribution

The standard deviation \( \sigma \) is the square root of the variance.\[ \sigma = \sqrt{1.001033} \approx 1.000516 \]

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean
The mean of a probability distribution, often called the expected value, gives us a sense of the average or the central tendency. It tells us what result we can expect on average if we were to repeat the experiment many times. In this context, the mean represents the average number of correct matches guessed.To compute the mean, we multiply each possible outcome by its probability and then sum these products. For our distribution:- Outcome 0 has probability 0.333- Outcome 1 has probability 0.5- Outcome 2 has probability 0- Outcome 3 has probability 0.167Thus, the mean \( \mu \) is calculated as:\[ \mu = (0 \times 0.333) + (1 \times 0.5) + (2 \times 0) + (3 \times 0.167) \]Breaking it down:- \( 0 \times 0.333 = 0 \)- \( 1 \times 0.5 = 0.5 \)- \( 2 \times 0 = 0 \)- \( 3 \times 0.167 = 0.501 \)Adding these gives \( \mu = 0 + 0.5 + 0 + 0.501 = 1.001 \). So, on average, you can expect to guess 1 correct match out of the three.
Variance
Variance is an essential measure in statistics that tells us how much the values in a distribution spread out from the mean. It gives the expected squared distance of each outcome from the mean, providing a clearer picture of actual variability.To calculate the variance \( \sigma^2 \), follow these steps:1. Compute the squared difference between each outcome and the mean.2. Multiply each squared difference by the corresponding probability.3. Sum all these values.For our distribution, the outcomes are compared with the mean \( \mu = 1.001 \):- For 0 correct: \( (0 - 1.001)^2 \times 0.333 \)- For 1 correct: \( (1 - 1.001)^2 \times 0.5 \)- For 2 correct: \( (2 - 1.001)^2 \times 0 \)- For 3 correct: \( (3 - 1.001)^2 \times 0.167 \)Calculating these:- \( 1.002001 \times 0.333 = 0.333364333 \)- \( 0.000001 \times 0.5 = 0.0000005 \)- \( 3.996001 \times 0 = 0 \)- \( 3.998001 \times 0.167 = 0.667668167 \)The variance \( \sigma^2 \) thus becomes:\[ 0.333364333 + 0.0000005 + 0 + 0.667668167 = 1.001033 \]
Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a widely used measure of the amount of variation or dispersion within a distribution. While variance gives us information about spread, the standard deviation provides that information in more understandable units, since it corresponds to the scale of measurement.To find the standard deviation \( \sigma \), simply take the square root of the variance:\[ \sigma = \sqrt{1.001033} \approx 1.000516 \]The standard deviation of about 1.000516 suggests that the number of correct matches you can guess tends to deviate from the mean by about one match. This insight can help understand the consistency of guesses. A smaller standard deviation would indicate guesses are closely concentrated around the mean, while a larger one shows more spread.

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