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The United States Postal Service reports 95 percent of first class mail within the same city is delivered within two days of the time of mailing. Six letters are randomly sent to different locations. a. What is the probability that all six arrive within two days? b. What is the probability that exactly five arrive within two days? c. Find the mean number of letters that will arrive within two days. d. Compute the variance and standard deviation of the number that will arrive within two days.

Short Answer

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Step 1: Understand probability of 95% for each letter. In next steps the requested solutions will be determined.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Probability for Each Letter

Each letter has a 95% chance of being delivered within two days. This probability is denoted as \( p = 0.95 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
Binomial distribution is a common probability distribution used to model the number of successful outcomes in a fixed number of trials. In situations where there are only two possible outcomes, like success or failure, the binomial distribution is used.

Let's explore how it works. Suppose you conduct an experiment 'n' times, and in each trial, there's a probability 'p' of success (and probability '1-p' of failure). In the postal service example, every letter is an independent experiment – a trial where it either is or isn't delivered within two days.

Some core characteristics of a binomial distribution include:
  • Fixed number of trials: We've six letters.
  • Two possible outcomes: Delivered on time or late.
  • Constant probability of success: Each letter has a 95% probability of timely delivery.
These make it easy to use the binomial formula to calculate probabilities for different scenarios, such as all six letters arriving on time or exactly five letters arriving on time.
Mean and Variance
Mean and variance are statistical measures that provide insights into a dataset’s behavior. For a binomial distribution like our postal example, these values tell a lot about what's expected and the variability around this expectation.

The **mean**, or the expected number of successful outcomes, is computed using the formula:\[ \text{Mean} = n \times p \]where 'n' represents the number of trials (6 letters) and 'p' is the probability of success (0.95). For the letters, the mean number of letters expected to arrive within two days is:\[ 6 \times 0.95 = 5.7 \]
This implies that, on average, about 5.7 letters are expected to arrive within two days.

Next, the **variance** measures how much the number of successful deliveries is likely to vary. The variance is calculated as:\[ \text{Variance} = n \times p \times (1-p) \]Again using our numbers, the variance is:\[ 6 \times 0.95 \times (1-0.95) = 0.285 \]
This number indicates that there is some variability expected in the number of letters delivered on time, but it is fairly low due to the high probability of success.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of the dispersion or spread of the outcomes around the mean. It tells you how spread out the numbers are expected to be from the mean.

For a binomial distribution, the standard deviation is derived from the variance using the formula:\[ \text{Standard Deviation} = \sqrt{\text{Variance}} \]
If we use our variance of 0.285, the standard deviation is:\[ \sqrt{0.285} \approx 0.534 \]
This number represents the typical deviation from the mean number of letters expected to be delivered on time.
By understanding the standard deviation, you gain insights into the reliability and consistency of the delivery time process. Here, a relatively small standard deviation reflects the consistency driven by the high probability of success.

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