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Chicken Delight claims that 90 percent of its orders are delivered within 10 minutes of the time the order is placed. A sample of 100 orders revealed that 82 -were delivered within the promised time. At the .10 significance level, can we conclude that less than 90 percent of the orders are delivered in less than 10 minutes?

Short Answer

Expert verified
We fail to reject the null hypothesis; there is not enough evidence to support the claim.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Hypotheses

First, define the null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis, \( H_0 \), states that the true proportion of orders delivered in less than 10 minutes is 90% (i.e., \( p = 0.90 \)). The alternative hypothesis, \( H_a \), states that the true proportion is less than 90% (i.e., \( p < 0.90 \)). Thus, we have: \( H_0: p = 0.90 \) and \( H_a: p < 0.90 \).
02

Calculate the Test Statistic

Use the formula for the test statistic for a proportion, which is \( z = \frac{\hat{p} - p_0}{\sqrt{\frac{p_0(1-p_0)}{n}}} \), where \( \hat{p} \) is the sample proportion, \( p_0 \) is the hypothesized proportion, and \( n \) is the sample size. Here, \( \hat{p} = \frac{82}{100} = 0.82 \), \( p_0 = 0.90 \), and \( n = 100 \). Calculate \( z \): \[z = \frac{0.82 - 0.90}{\sqrt{\frac{0.90 \times 0.10}{100}}} = \frac{-0.08}{\sqrt{0.009}} = \frac{-0.08}{0.09487} = -0.8431\]
03

Determine the Critical Value

Determine the critical value for a left-tailed test at the \( \alpha = 0.10 \) significance level. For a standard normal distribution, the critical value corresponding to \( \alpha = 0.10 \) is approximately \( z = -1.28 \).
04

Compare Test Statistic and Critical Value

Compare the calculated test statistic to the critical value to decide whether to reject the null hypothesis. Since the test statistic \( z = -0.8431 \) is greater than the critical value \( z = -1.28 \), we fail to reject the null hypothesis.
05

State the Conclusion

Based on the comparison, we do not have enough evidence to conclude that the true proportion of orders delivered within 10 minutes is less than 90% at the 0.10 significance level.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Proportion Test
A proportion test is a statistical method used to compare the proportion of a sample to a known population proportion. In our example of Chicken Delight, the company claims that 90% of its orders are delivered within 10 minutes. This claim represents the population proportion, denoted by \( p = 0.90 \).
The proportion test involves taking a sample—in this case, a sample of 100 orders with 82 delivered on time—and checking if this sample proportion is statistically different from the population proportion.
To perform a proportion test, we calculate the sample proportion, \( \hat{p} = \frac{82}{100} = 0.82 \), and use this to compute the test statistic. This statistic helps determine whether the observed sample proportion is significantly different from the hypothesized proportion. In hypothesis testing, calculating the test statistic is essential for making informed conclusions based on data.
Significance Level
In hypothesis testing, the significance level, denoted \( \alpha \), is the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true. It essentially measures the "risk" we are willing to take in making this error, also known as a Type I error.
For Chicken Delight, the significance level is set at \( \alpha = 0.10 \), meaning there's a 10% chance of concluding that less than 90% of orders are delivered within 10 minutes when, in fact, the claim holds true.
Choosing the significance level can have implications for test outcomes. A lower \( \alpha \) is more stringent but reduces the risk of Type I errors. In practice, common significance levels are 0.05, 0.01, or 0.10, depending on the situation and the desirable balance between rigor and risk.
It's crucial to set this threshold before conducting the test to prevent bias and ensure the integrity of conclusions.
Critical Value
The critical value is a point on the scale of the test statistic beyond which we will reject the null hypothesis. It plays a key role in hypothesis testing by setting the decision boundary. For a given significance level in a left-tailed test, the critical value can be found using statistical tables or software.
In our Chicken Delight example, the critical value was determined based on a left-tailed test at \( \alpha = 0.10 \). This meant looking for the point in a standard normal distribution where only 10% of values lie to the left. The critical value for \( \alpha = 0.10 \) in this setting is approximately \( z = -1.28 \).
Once the critical value is known, we compare it with the test statistic. If the test statistic falls beyond the critical value, the null hypothesis is rejected. In this case, since the test statistic \( z = -0.8431 \) did not surpass \( z = -1.28 \), we failed to reject the null hypothesis, indicating insufficient evidence that less than 90% of orders are delivered within the promised time. This comparison highlights whether or not the sample data provides strong enough evidence to support a conclusion.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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