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An urban planner claims that, nationally, 20 percent of all families renting condominiums move during a given year. A random sample of 200 families renting condominiums in Dallas Metroplex revealed that 56 had moved during the past year. At the .01 significance level, does this evidence suggest that a larger proportion of condominium owners moved in the Dallas area? Determine the \(p\) -value.

Short Answer

Expert verified
There is evidence to suggest that more than 20% of condominium renters moved in Dallas.

Step by step solution

01

State the Hypotheses

First, establish the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) and the alternative hypothesis (\(H_1\)). For this problem, the null hypothesis is that the proportion of families moving is 20% (\(p = 0.20\)), and the alternative hypothesis is that the proportion of families moving is greater than 20% (\(p > 0.20\)).
02

Determine the Sample Proportion

Calculate the sample proportion of families that moved. Here, 56 families moved out of 200, so the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\) is \(\frac{56}{200} = 0.28\).
03

Calculate the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) is calculated using the formula \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}}\), where \(p = 0.20\) and \(n = 200\). This gives us \(SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.20 \times 0.80}{200}} \approx 0.0283\).
04

Find the Test Statistic

Using the sample proportion \(\hat{p}\), the null proportion \(p\), and the standard error, the test statistic \(z\) can be calculated by \(z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{SE} = \frac{0.28 - 0.20}{0.0283} \approx 2.828\).
05

Determine the p-value

Using the \(z\)-score obtained from the previous step, find the p-value. A \(z\)-score of 2.828 corresponds to a p-value less than 0.0023 on a standard normal distribution table, or using statistical software.
06

Compare the p-value to the Significance Level

Compare the p-value from Step 5 to the significance level of 0.01. Since the p-value (\(<0.0023\)) is less than 0.01, we reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding the Null Hypothesis
In the realm of hypothesis testing, the concept of the null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) is fundamental. It serves as a statement that indicates no effect or no difference, and it is the hypothesis you aim to test.
For instance, in our exercise, the null hypothesis claims that 20% of condominium-renting families move annually. This figure represents the status quo or the expected proportion according to national statistics.
The primary purpose of establishing a null hypothesis is to have a baseline to compare against, to either provide support for its validity or evidence to refute it. Rejecting the null hypothesis usually suggests that the actual situation is different than previously believed.
Exploring the Alternative Hypothesis
If the null hypothesis represents no change or status quo, the alternative hypothesis (\(H_1\)) proposes a different outcome. In hypothesis testing, you aim to test evidence against the null hypothesis to see if there's strong support for the alternative.
In this exercise, the alternative hypothesis suggests that more than 20% of families renting condominiums in the Dallas Metroplex move annually. This implies a rise in mobility compared to the national average.
Supporting the alternative hypothesis involves demonstrating that the observed data significantly departs from what the null hypothesis claims. To draw such conclusions, statistical evidence, like the p-value, must be compelling enough to either accept or reject these hypotheses.
Deciphering the P-Value
The p-value is a critical element in hypothesis testing and provides insight into the strength of the evidence against the null hypothesis. It represents the probability of observing the given data, or something more extreme, assuming the null hypothesis is true. In essence, it helps gauge the unexpectedness of your data.
For our specific problem, the p-value was found to be less than 0.0023, suggesting that if the true proportion was indeed 20%, there's a very small chance of observing 28% or more families moving just by random chance.
A small p-value typically indicates strong evidence against the null hypothesis, usually leading researchers to the conclusion that the sample data do not support the preset assumptions of the null hypothesis. Thus, it's pivotal in judging whether observed results are statistically significant.
Significance Level in Context
The significance level, often denoted by \(\alpha\), acts as a threshold in hypothesis testing to determine statistical significance. It's the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis when it is actually true, commonly set at 0.01, 0.05, or 0.10.
In the context of our exercise, the significance level of 0.01 was chosen, indicating that if the p-value is below 0.01, the null hypothesis would be rejected.
This prevents the researcher from making a Type I error, where one mistakenly deduces that a difference exists when it does not. By adopting a strict significance level such as 0.01, you imply a strong criterion for evidence against the null hypothesis, hence only robust results suffice for rejecting it.
In this case, since the p-value is less than 0.01, the evidence strongly suggests that a larger proportion of condominium renters are moving in the Dallas area, with significant confidence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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