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An article in Knee Surgery, Sports Traumatology, Arthroscopy ["Arthroscopic Meniscal Repair with an Absorbable Screw: Results and Surgical Technique" \((2005,\) Vol. \(13,\) pp. \(273-279)\) ] showed that only 25 out of 37 tears \((67.6 \%)\) located between 3 and \(6 \mathrm{~mm}\) from the meniscus rim were healed. a. Calculate a two-sided \(95 \%\) confidence interval on the proportion of such tears that will heal. b. Calculate a \(95 \%\) lower confidence bound on the proportion of such tears that will heal.

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. The 95% CI is approximately [0.524, 0.828]. b. The lower bound is approximately 0.549.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Problem

We have 25 healed tears out of a total of 37. We need to calculate a two-sided 95% confidence interval and a one-sided lower 95% confidence bound on the proportion of tears that heal.
02

Determine Proportion and Sample Size

The sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is calculated as \( \hat{p} = \frac{25}{37} \approx 0.676 \). The sample size \( n \) is 37.
03

Find Standard Error for Proportion

The standard error (SE) for the proportion \( \hat{p} \) is \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \). Substitute the known values: \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.676(1-0.676)}{37}} \approx 0.0774 \).
04

Calculate Confidence Interval Z-score

For a 95% confidence level, the corresponding Z-score is approximately 1.96.
05

Compute Two-Sided Confidence Interval

The two-sided 95% confidence interval is given by \( \hat{p} \pm Z \times SE \). Thus, \( 0.676 \pm 1.96 \times 0.0774 \approx [0.524, 0.828] \).
06

Compute Lower Confidence Bound

The lower 95% confidence bound is \( \hat{p} - Z \times SE \). Therefore, \( 0.676 - 1.645 \times 0.0774 \approx 0.549 \).
07

Interpret Results

The 95% two-sided confidence interval suggests that the true proportion of tears that heal is between 52.4% and 82.8%, and the lower bound suggests it is at least 54.9%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Proportion
A proportion represents a part of a whole and is usually expressed as a fraction or percentage. In the context of our exercise, the proportion of healed meniscus tears is calculated as the number of healed tears divided by the total number of tears. This gives us an estimate of how many tears typically heal. Here, with 25 healed out of 37 tears, our proportion is approximately 67.6%.
This proportion helps us understand the probability of a tear healing under specific conditions. It's important because it sets the stage for deeper statistical analysis, like forming confidence intervals to provide a range for our estimate. Proportions are utilized frequently in statistics and everyday decisions, offering a snapshot of a whole based on partial data observation.
Explaining Standard Error
Standard Error (SE) measures the accuracy with which a sample distribution represents a population using sample data. In simpler terms, it shows how much our sample proportion is expected to vary if we took many samples from the population. For proportions, SE is calculated by taking the square root of the product of the proportion and its complement (1-proportion), then dividing by the sample size.
In the exercise, the SE is calculated to be approximately 0.0774. This value tells us the expected variability of our sample proportion, helping us to construct a more reliable confidence interval. Think of it as the degree of certainty we have about our sample estimate being close to the true population proportion.
95% Confidence Level Made Simple
The 95% confidence level is a statistical standard used to define the precision and reliability of an estimate. When we say we are 95% confident, it means if we were to repeat the study multiple times, 95 out of 100 confidence intervals calculated from those repetitions would contain the true population proportion.
This confidence level is tied to a Z-score, which in this case is 1.96 for a normal distribution. It is an integral part of forming the confidence interval, ensuring that the margin of error around our sample proportion is scientifically meaningful, providing both lower and upper bounds of possible population proportions.
Decoding Z-Score
A Z-score, in the context of a confidence interval, is the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean. For a 95% confidence interval, this corresponds to a Z-score of approximately 1.96, which is derived from a normal distribution table.
Z-scores are crucial in adjusting the width of the confidence interval, which represents the range of values we expect the true population parameter to fall within. By applying the Z-score to the standard error, we can determine the boundaries of our confidence interval, providing a more informed estimate about the population proportion. In essence, the Z-score adjusts our confidence interval to reflect a higher certainty level.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

An article in the Journal of Composite Materials (December \(1989,\) Vol. \(23(12),\) pp. \(1200-1215)\) describes the effect of delamination on the natural frequency of beams made from composite laminates. Five such delaminated beams were subjected to loads, and the resulting frequencies (in hertz) were as follows: $$230.66,233.05,232.58,229.48,232.58$$ Check the assumption of normality in the population. Calculate a \(90 \%\) two- sided confidence interval on mean natural frequency.

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