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Suppose that \(n=100\) random samples of water from a freshwater lake were taken and the calcium concentration (milligrams per liter) measured. A \(95 \%\) CI on the mean calcium concentration is \(0.49 \leq \mu \leq 0.82\) a. Would a \(99 \%\) CI calculated from the same sample data be longer or shorter? b. Consider the following statement: There is a \(95 \%\) chance that \(\mu\) is between 0.49 and \(0.82 .\) Is this statement correct? Explain your answer. c. Consider the following statement: If \(n=100\) random samples of water from the lake were taken and the \(95 \% \mathrm{CI}\) on \(\mu\) computed, and this process were repeated 1000 times, 950 of the CIs would contain the true value of \(\mu\). Is this statement correct? Explain your answer.

Short Answer

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a. Longer; b. Incorrect; c. Correct.

Step by step solution

01

Understand Confidence Intervals and their Width

The width of a confidence interval ( ext{CI}) is related to the confidence level and sample size. A larger confidence level (like 99%) results in wider intervals because we need more coverage to be more confident about containing the true parameter. Therefore, a 99% confidence interval would be longer than a 95% confidence interval if all other factors remain the same.
02

Analyze the Statement on Probability

The statement, 'There is a 95% chance that \(\mu\) is between 0.49 and 0.82,' is incorrect. In frequentist statistics, the true mean \(\mu\) is fixed and not a random variable. The 95% confidence interval approach indicates that if we were to take repeated samples, 95% of such computed intervals would contain the true mean. It does not mean there is a 95% probability that the current interval contains \(\mu\).
03

Understand Repeated Sampling for Confidence Intervals

The statement regarding repeating the process 1000 times and expecting 950 out of those intervals to contain the true \(\mu\) is correct. This interpretation aligns with the frequentist definition of a 95% confidence interval. Specifically, in repeated sampling, we'd expect about 95% of the intervals to capture \(\mu\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Confidence Level
The confidence level is crucial in understanding confidence intervals. It represents the degree of certainty we have that a particular interval contains the true mean of a population. A higher confidence level indicates that we can be more sure that our interval captures this true mean. For instance, a 99% confidence interval is wider than a 95% confidence interval. This increased width accounts for the additional certainty we desire, allowing us to cover a broader range of possible true mean values.
When choosing a confidence level, consider the balance between precision and certainty. A higher level provides more security but at the cost of wider intervals, which might reduce the interval's usefulness for precise estimations. It's a balancing act that researchers must navigate based on the context of their studies.
Sample Size
Sample size plays a critical role in the determination of confidence intervals. A larger sample size generally leads to more precise estimates of the population mean. This is because a bigger sample size reduces the standard error, thus leading to narrower confidence intervals.
  • More samples provide a clearer picture of the broader population.
  • This allows for tighter and more reliable confidence intervals.
  • Conversely, a smaller sample size can lead to larger standard errors, resulting in wider confidence intervals.
Given a fixed confidence level, increasing the sample size reduces the interval width, which means our estimate of the true population mean becomes more precise. However, it's important to consider practical constraints, such as time and cost, when deciding on the sample size.
True Mean
Understanding the concept of true mean is key in statistics. The true mean, denoted by \(\mu\), is a fixed value that represents the average of an entire population. Unlike a sample mean, which is calculated from a subset of the population, the true mean is not subject to variation. In context of confidence intervals, the true mean remains constant regardless of the interval's width or position. Confidence intervals function as a means to estimate this fixed value from sample data. They provide a range within which we suspect the true mean exists based on our sample. It is crucial to remember that while the true mean itself never changes, our confidence in the position of our confidence interval does—notably depending on factors such as confidence level and sample size. Thus, confidence intervals provide a probabilistic measure about the range within which the true mean likely falls.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Ishikawa et al. ["Evaluation of Adhesiveness of Acinetobacter sp. Tol 5 to Abiotic Surfaces," Journal of Bioscience and Bioengineering (Vol. \(113(6),\) pp. \(719-725)\) ] studied the adhesion of various biofilms to solid surfaces for possible use in environmental technologies. Adhesion assay is conducted by measuring absorbance at \(\mathrm{A}_{590}\). Suppose that for the bacterial strain Acinetobacter, five measurements gave readings of \(2.69,5.76,2.67,1.62,\) and 4.12 dyne-cm \(^{2}\). Assume that the standard deviation is known to be 0.66 dyne-cm \(^{2}\). a. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean adhesion. b. If the scientists want the confidence interval to be no wider than 0.55 dyne- \(\mathrm{cm}^{2},\) how many observations should they take? a. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean adhesion. b. If the scientists want the confidence interval to be no wider than 0.55 dyne-cm \(^{2}\), how many observations should they take?

An article in the Journal of the American Statistical Association ["Illustration of Bayesian Inference in Normal Data Models Using Gibbs Sampling" (1990, Vol. 85, pp. \(972-985)\) ] measured the weight of 30 rats under experiment controls. Suppose that 12 were underweight rats. a. Calculate a \(95 \%\) two-sided confidence interval on the true proportion of rats that would show underweight from the experiment. b. Using the point estimate of \(p\) obtained from the preliminary sample, what sample size is needed to be \(95 \%\) confident that the error in estimating the true value of \(p\) is less than \(0.02 ?\) c. How large must the sample be if you wish to be at least \(95 \%\) confident that the error in estimating \(p\) is less than 0.02 regardless of the true value of \(p ?\)

A research engineer for a tire manufacturer is investigating tire life for a new rubber compound and has built 16 tires and tested them to end-of-life in a road test. The sample mean and standard deviation are 60,139.7 and 3645.94 kilometers. Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval on mean tire life.

An article in the Journal of Composite Materials (December \(1989,\) Vol. \(23(12),\) pp. \(1200-1215)\) describes the effect of delamination on the natural frequency of beams made from composite laminates. Five such delaminated beams were subjected to loads, and the resulting frequencies (in hertz) were as follows: $$230.66,233.05,232.58,229.48,232.58$$ Check the assumption of normality in the population. Calculate a \(90 \%\) two- sided confidence interval on mean natural frequency.

A confidence interval estimate is desired for the gain in a circuit on a semiconductor device. Assume that gain is normally distributed with standard deviation \(\sigma=20\). a. How large must \(n\) be if the length of the \(95 \% \mathrm{Cl}\) is to be \(40 ?\) b. How large must \(n\) be if the length of the \(99 \% \mathrm{Cl}\) is to be \(40 ?\)

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