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The weight of a small candy is normally distributed with a mean of 0.1 ounce and a standard deviation of 0.01 ounce. Suppose that 16 candies are placed in a package and that the weights are independent. a. What are the mean and variance of the package's net weight? b. What is the probability that the net weight of a package is less than 1.6 ounces? c. What value will the mean weight exceed with probability \(0.99 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. Mean = 1.6 ounces, Variance = 0.0016 ounces² b. Probability = 0.5 c. 1.6932 ounces

Step by step solution

01

Determine the mean weight of the package

Since the weight of each candy is normally distributed with a mean of 0.1 ounce, the total mean weight for 16 candies is given by multiplying the mean weight of one candy by 16. Thus, the mean weight of the package is \(0.1 \times 16 = 1.6\) ounces.
02

Determine the variance of the package weight

The variance of the weight of one candy is \(0.01^2 = 0.0001\). For 16 independent candies, the variance of the package weight is \(16 \times 0.0001 = 0.0016\) ounces squared.
03

Standard deviation of the package weight

The standard deviation is the square root of the variance. Thus, the standard deviation of the package weight is \(\sqrt{0.0016} = 0.04\) ounces.
04

Find the probability that the net weight is less than 1.6 ounces

Since the mean package weight is 1.6 ounces, we are looking for \(P(X < 1.6)\), where the package weight is normally distributed. Since \(1.6\) is exactly the mean, and the normal distribution is symmetric, \(P(X < 1.6) = 0.5\).
05

Determine the Z-score for the 0.99 probability

To find the value that the mean weight exceeds with a probability of 0.99, we need to find the Z-score that corresponds to this probability. In the normal distribution table, the Z-score for 0.99 is approximately 2.33.
06

Compute the weight value corresponding to the 0.99 probability

The general formula for converting a Z-score to a value in a normal distribution is \(X = \mu + Z \sigma\). Here, \(\mu = 1.6\) and \(\sigma = 0.04\). Thus, \(X = 1.6 + 2.33 \times 0.04\). Calculating this gives \(X = 1.6 + 0.0932 = 1.6932\) ounces.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean and Variance
Understanding mean and variance is essential in exploring the normal distribution. Let's start with the mean. In this exercise, each candy's weight is normally distributed with a mean of 0.1 ounce. The mean of a distribution tells us the average value. So, when we have 16 candies, we simply multiply this mean by 16 to get the average weight of all candies together, which sums up to 1.6 ounces.
Variance, on the other hand, measures the spread or dispersion of the data. It tells us how much the individual weights differ from the mean. For one candy, the variance is the square of the standard deviation: \(0.01^2 = 0.0001\). When considering 16 independent candies, the variance of their total weight is \(16 \times 0.0001 = 0.0016\) ounces squared. This larger variance accounts for more fluctuations as the number of candies increases.
The standard deviation, which is the square root of the variance, shows us the average difference from the mean. Here, it calculates to \(\sqrt{0.0016} = 0.04\) ounces, helping us understand the average spread relative to the mean.
Probability Calculations
In probability calculations involving the normal distribution, symmetry about the mean plays a crucial role. Given that the mean weight of our package is 1.6 ounces, we want to determine the probability that the package's net weight is less than this mean.
Thanks to the properties of the normal distribution, this probability is straightforward. Since our mean value, 1.6 ounces, lies exactly at the center, the probability that the package weight is less than 1.6 ounces is 0.5. This is because half of the distribution lies on each side of the mean.
Analyzing probabilities with a normal distribution can be handy, especially when quantities naturally cluster around a central mean with some variability. Here, knowing that the distribution is symmetric allows us to easily find the probability that falls on either side of the mean without complex calculations.
Z-score
The Z-score is a statistical measure that tells us how many standard deviations an element is from the mean. It helps standardize values for comparison within the context of a normal distribution.
In this exercise, you want to find the weight that the mean of the candies will exceed with 99% probability. First, identify the Z-score that matches a cumulative probability of 0.99. Referring to Z-tables, this Z-score is approximately 2.33.
Once the Z-score is known, you can use it to find the corresponding weight value. Using the formula \(X = \mu + Z \sigma\), where \(\mu\) is the mean (1.6 ounces), \(Z\) is the Z-score (2.33), and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation (0.04 ounces), you can substitute these values in. This gives you \(X = 1.6 + 2.33 \times 0.04 = 1.6932\) ounces.
Thus, with 99% certainty, the package weight will not exceed 1.6932 ounces. Understanding how to apply the Z-score transforms probability calculations from just numbers into meaningful metrics.

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