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Making handcrafted pottery generally takes two major steps: wheel throwing and firing. The time of wheel throwing and the time of firing are normally distributed random variables with means of 40 minutes and 60 minutes and standard deviations of 2 minutes and 3 minutes, respectively. a. What is the probability that a piece of pottery will be finished within 95 minutes? b. What is the probability that it will take longer than 110 minutes?

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 8.23% chance in 95 minutes; b. 0.27% chance over 110 minutes.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Total Time Distribution

Let the random variable \( T \) represent the total time to finish a piece of pottery. The total time \( T \) is the sum of the wheel throwing time (\( X \)) and the firing time (\( Y \)). Since both are normally distributed, \( X \sim N(40, 2^2) \) and \( Y \sim N(60, 3^2) \). The sum \( T = X + Y \) is also normally distributed with mean \( \mu_T = 40 + 60 = 100 \) minutes and variance \( \sigma^2_T = 2^2 + 3^2 = 13 \), hence \( T \sim N(100, \sqrt{13}) \).
02

Determine Standard Deviation and Z-Scores

The standard deviation of \( T \) is \( \sigma_T = \sqrt{13} \approx 3.6 \). For part (a), find the Z-score for 95 minutes using the formula: \( Z = \frac{95 - 100}{3.6} \approx -1.39 \). For part (b), find the Z-score for 110 minutes: \( Z = \frac{110 - 100}{3.6} \approx 2.78 \).
03

Calculate Probabilities Using Z-Scores

For part (a), using the standard normal distribution table, find the probability corresponding to \( Z = -1.39 \). This is approximately 0.0823, which means there is an 8.23% chance the pottery will be completed within 95 minutes. For part (b), use the standard normal distribution table for \( Z = 2.78 \); you find the cumulative probability is approximately 0.9973. Thus, the probability that \( T > 110 \) is \( 1 - 0.9973 = 0.0027 \) or 0.27%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
The concept of normal distribution is foundational in statistics. It is a probability distribution that is symmetric about its mean, meaning that data near the mean are more frequent in occurrence than data far from the mean. Most of the naturally-occurring phenomena fit this distribution model.

Key characteristics of normal distribution include:
  • Bell Shape: The graph of the distribution curve is bell-shaped, with the highest point at the mean.
  • Mean, Median, Mode: In a perfectly normal distribution, these three measures of central tendency are all the same.
  • Symmetry: It is symmetric around the mean.
  • Standard Deviation: Determines the distribution's spread or width. Most data falls within three standard deviations of the mean.
In our exercise, the time for both wheel throwing and firing follows a normal distribution with specified means and standard deviations. By understanding these properties, we can compute the probabilities of a piece of pottery being finished in certain time frames.
Random Variables
A random variable is a variable whose values depend on outcomes of a random phenomenon. It's a concept that allows us to quantify uncertainty with numbers.

There are two types of random variables:
  • Discrete Random Variables: These can take on a finite number of values, such as the roll of a die.
  • Continuous Random Variables: These can take on an infinite number of values between any two specific values, like the time it takes to polish a surface or exactly how much liquid fills up a bottle.
In the given exercise, both wheel throwing and firing time are represented as continuous random variables because they can take any value within a range. We denote this as \( X \) for wheel throwing time and \( Y \) for firing time, both of which follow normal distributions.
Z-Scores
Z-scores are a statistical measurement that describe a value's relation to the mean of a group of values. They are particularly useful in comparing results from different data sets or different scores.

The formula for the Z-score is:

\[ Z = \frac{X - \mu}{\sigma} \]

Where:
  • \( X \) is the value in question.
  • \( \mu \) is the mean of the distribution.
  • \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation.
In the problem, the Z-scores help convert the times (like 95 and 110 minutes) into standard form so we can find the probabilities using the standard normal distribution table.

For example, by calculating the Z-score for 95 minutes as \( Z = \frac{95 - 100}{3.6} \approx -1.39 \), it's established how far and in what direction the 95-minute mark is from the mean of 100 minutes. This process enables us to determine the likelihood or percentage of pottery being completed within that time frame.

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