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Assume that a random variable is normally distributed with a mean of 24 and a standard deviation of \(2 .\) Consider an interval of length one unit that starts at the value \(a\) so that the interval is \([a, a+1] .\) For what value of \(a\) is the probability of the interval greatest? Does the standard deviation affect that choice of interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The value of \(a\) is 23.5; the standard deviation does not affect this choice.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find a value of \(a\) that maximizes the probability of a random variable, normally distributed with a mean of 24 and a standard deviation of 2, falling within the interval \([a, a+1]\).
02

Use the Properties of the Normal Distribution

For a normal distribution, the probabilities are highest near the mean. The interval that is centered around the mean maximizes the probability. This means we want to find an interval centered as close to 24 as possible.
03

Choose the Interval Centered Around the Mean

To choose the interval that maximizes the probability, place the interval symmetrically around the mean. The middle point of the interval \([a, a+1]\) should be closest to 24. Thus set \(\frac{a + (a+1)}{2} = 24\).
04

Solve for a

Solve the equation from the previous step: \[\frac{a + a + 1}{2} = 24\]. Simplifying, we get \[\frac{2a + 1}{2} = 24\]. Multiply through by 2: \[2a + 1 = 48\]. Solve for \(a\) by subtracting 1 from both sides to get \[2a = 47\]. Divide both sides by 2 to find \[a = 23.5\].
05

Does the Standard Deviation Affect This Choice?

The choice of \(a = 23.5\) only depends on the mean being centered in the interval. The standard deviation affects the spread, but not the center of where the interval should be placed to maximize the probability.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Mean
The mean of a dataset represents its average value. It's a central concept in statistics and plays a pivotal role in understanding normal distributions. In essence, it tells us where the center of the data lies.

Calculating the mean is simple. Add up all the numbers in your dataset, then divide by the count of those numbers. For example, if you have a dataset of five numbers: 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30, the mean is \[(10 + 15 + 20 + 25 + 30) / 5 = 20.\]

The mean is especially important in a normal distribution. A normal distribution is symmetric around its mean, resembling a bell shape. Most values in the dataset tend to gather around the mean, making it a vital reference point for probability calculations.

In exercises like finding the optimal interval in a normal distribution, the mean determines where the interval should be centered to maximize the likelihood of containing data points. This is because the probability density is highest near the mean.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure of how spread out numbers in a dataset are. It quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion from the mean.

To compute the standard deviation, first find the variance by averaging the squared differences between each data point and the mean. Then? Take the square root of this variance. In formulaic terms, if you have a dataset with values \(x_1, x_2, \, ..., \, x_n\), and a mean \(\mu\), the standard deviation, \(\sigma\), is: \[\sigma = \sqrt{\frac{\sum (x_i - \mu)^2}{n}}.\]

A small standard deviation indicates that the values are close to the mean. A larger one means they are more spread out. In the context of a normal distribution, it affects the width of the bell curve: a larger standard deviation leads to a flatter and wider curve, while a smaller one results in a narrower and taller curve.

While the standard deviation determines the spread, it does not influence the location of the peak itself. This position is dictated by the mean, which is why in the exercise, the interval choice focuses on centering around the mean, with the standard deviation reflecting the distribution's spread.
Probability
Probability measures the likelihood or chance of an event occurring. It ranges from 0 (impossible event) to 1 (certain event), aiding decision-making under uncertainty.

In the realm of a normal distribution, probabilities help assess how likely it is for a random variable to fall within a particular range or interval. The total area under the normal distribution curve equals 1, representing 100% probability.

For a given interval \([a, a+1]\), the probability that a random variable falls within this range is represented by the area under the curve over that interval. Since normal distributions are symmetric around the mean, intervals closer to the mean hold a higher probability.

For example, consider when we determine where to place an interval to maximize probability. By centering around the mean, you target the part of the bell curve with the most density. This is crucial in the exercise, as choosing the interval \([23.5, 24.5]\) ensures you're capturing values most likely around the peak point of the distribution, thus maximizing probability.

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