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The distribution of \(X\) is approximated with a triangular probability density function \(f(x)=0.0025 x-0.075\) for \(30

Short Answer

Expert verified
a. 0.125 b. 0.75 c. Approximately 69.3

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Triangular Distribution

The triangular distribution is defined by a piecewise linear probability density function (PDF). It typically consists of two linear functions, one increasing and one decreasing, which meet at a peak point. In this case, we have two functions: one for the interval \(30 < x < 50\) given by \(f(x) = 0.0025x - 0.075\), and one for the interval \(50 < x < 70\) given by \(f(x) = -0.0025x + 0.175\). The peak or mode is at \(x=50\).
02

Calculating P(X ≤ 40)

To find \(P(X \leq 40)\), we need to integrate the function \(f(x) = 0.0025x - 0.075\) from \(x=30\) to \(x=40\).\[P(X \leq 40) = \int_{30}^{40} (0.0025x - 0.075) \, dx\]Solving the integral:\[\int(0.0025x - 0.075) \, dx = 0.0025 \frac{x^2}{2} - 0.075x + C\]Evaluate between 30 and 40:\[ \left[ 0.0025 \frac{40^2}{2} - 0.075 \times 40 \right] - \left[ 0.0025 \frac{30^2}{2} - 0.075 \times 30 \right] \]Calculating:\[\left( 2 - 3 \right) - \left( 1.125 - 2.25 \right) = -1 + 1.125 = 0.125\]Thus, \(P(X \leq 40) = 0.125\).
03

Calculating P(40 < X ≤ 60)

For \(40 < x \leq 50\), integrate \(f(x) = 0.0025x - 0.075\)\[\int_{40}^{50} (0.0025x - 0.075) \, dx = \left[ 0.0025 \frac{50^2}{2} - 0.075 \times 50 \right] - \left[ 0.0025 \frac{40^2}{2} - 0.075 \times 40 \right]\]Calculating this gives:\[\left( 3.125 - 3.75 \right) - \left( 2 - 3 \right) = -0.625 + 1 = 0.375\]For \(50 < x \leq 60\), integrate \(f(x) = -0.0025x + 0.175\)\[\int_{50}^{60} (-0.0025x + 0.175) \, dx\]Calculating this integral:\[-0.0025 \frac{60^2}{2} + 0.175 \times 60 - (-0.0025 \frac{50^2}{2} + 0.175 \times 50)\]\[-4.5 + 10.5 - (-3.125 + 8.75) = 6 - 5.625 = 0.375\]Total \(P(40 < X \leq 60) = 0.375 + 0.375 = 0.75\).
04

Calculating the Value of x Exceeded with Probability 0.99

To find the 99th percentile of the distribution, we need \(P(X > x) = 0.01\), or \(P(X \leq x) = 0.99\). Given \(P(40 < X \leq 60) = 0.75\) and \(P(X \leq 40) = 0.125\), this leaves us needing \(P(X > x) = 1 - 0.99 = 0.01\). Starting with \(P(X \leq 60) = 0.875\), solve:Set \(P(X > x) = \int_{x}^{70} (-0.0025x + 0.175) \, dx = 0.01\).Solving gives us approximately:\(-0.0025 \frac{x^2}{2} + 0.175x - P = 0.01\).Solving numerically using trial and error or computational tools gives \(x \approx 69.3\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Density Function
A probability density function (PDF) is a fundamental concept used to describe the distribution of continuous random variables. In simple terms, the PDF indicates the likelihood of a random variable taking on a particular value. However, unlike discrete probabilities, PDFs do not directly provide probabilities. Instead, the area under the curve of a PDF over a particular interval provides the probability that the random variable falls within that interval.

Key points to remember about PDFs include:
  • The area under the entire PDF curve equals 1, representing total probability.
  • The PDF curve's height can exceed 1 since it is not a probability measure by itself.
  • PDFs are only applicable for continuous variables.
In our exercise, the triangular distribution is defined by a PDF consisting of two linear pieces, forming a peak at 50. This indicates that the value of 50 is the most likely to occur in this distribution.
Integration in Probability
```Integration in probability is a mathematical process used to find cumulative probabilities from a probability density function (PDF). By integrating the PDF over a specific interval, we can determine the probability that a random variable falls within this range.

Here are the essential points to understand when discussing integration in probability:
  • Integration provides the area under the curve of the PDF, which corresponds to probability.
  • It is particularly useful for continuous distributions, where probability is spread over a range of values.
  • To find probabilities, you integrate from the lower bound to the upper bound of the desired interval.
In the exercise, integration was used to calculate:
  • \(P(X \leq 40)\) by integrating from 30 to 40 for the function \(f(x) = 0.0025x - 0.075\)
  • \(P(40 < X \leq 60)\) by integrating two portions: from 40 to 50 and from 50 to 60, with respective functions.```
Piecewise Linear Functions
Piecewise linear functions are mathematical functions composed of several linear segments. These segments are defined over specific intervals. Each segment has its unique linear equation. A key feature of piecewise linear functions is that they are not continuous in terms of slope, leading to sharp transitions at certain points.

Understanding piecewise linear functions involves:
  • Identifying each linear segment and its corresponding domain (the interval over which it is defined).
  • Noticing how segments fit together, typically meeting at so-called endpoints or breakpoints.
  • Using these functions to model phenomena that change rates over different intervals.
In the triangular distribution provided in the exercise, the PDF is characterized by two piecewise linear functions:
  • The increasing function \(f(x) = 0.0025x - 0.075\) for \(30 < x < 50\).
  • The decreasing function \(f(x) = -0.0025x + 0.175\) for \(50 < x < 70\).
The piecewise nature captures the distinct linear rate changes in different segments of the distribution."

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