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In a little over a month, from June \(5,1879,\) to July 2 1879 , Albert Michelson measured the velocity of light in air 100 times (Stigler, Annals of Statistics, 1977 ). Today we know that the true value is \(299,734.5 \mathrm{~km} / \mathrm{sec} .\) Michelson's data have a mean of \(299,852.4 \mathrm{~km} / \mathrm{sec}\) with a standard deviation of 79.01 (a) Find a two-sided \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the true mean (the true value of the speed of light). (b) What does the confidence interval say about the accuracy of Michelson's measurements?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) The 95% CI is [299,836.91, 299,868.89] km/s. (b) Michelson's measurements were not accurate as his mean is outside this interval.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the given values

We know from the problem that Michelson performed 100 measurements, so the sample size \(n = 100\). The sample mean \(\bar{x} = 299,852.4\ \text{km/s}\) and the sample standard deviation \(s = 79.01\). We are asked to calculate a 95% confidence interval for the mean.
02

Determine the critical value

For a 95% confidence interval and a large sample size, we typically use the standard normal distribution to find the critical value. For a two-tailed test, this critical value \(Z\) is approximately 1.96.
03

Compute the standard error of the mean

The standard error of the mean is given by the formula \( SE = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \). Here, \( SE = \frac{79.01}{\sqrt{100}} = 7.901 \).
04

Calculate the confidence interval

The formula for the confidence interval is given by \( \bar{x} \pm Z \times SE \). This becomes:\[ 299,852.4 \pm 1.96 \times 7.901 \]Calculating the margin of error gives \(1.96 \times 7.901 = 15.48596\). Therefore, the confidence interval is:\[ 299,852.4 - 15.48596, 299,852.4 + 15.48596 \]Which results in \([299,836.91404, 299,868.88596]\).
05

Interpret the confidence interval

The 95% confidence interval \([299,836.91, 299,868.89]\ \text{km/s}\) suggests that if we were to repeat this experiment many times, 95% of the calculated intervals would contain the true mean of the speed of light. Because the known true value \(299,734.5 \text{ km/s}\) is not within this interval, this indicates that Michelson's mean measurements were not accurate when compared to the true value.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Mean
The sample mean, often represented as \( \bar{x} \), is a key statistic that represents the average value of a sample. In Michelson's experiment, where he measured the speed of light 100 times, the sample mean is given as \( 299,852.4 \; \text{km/s} \). This mean is calculated by adding up all the measured values and dividing by the sample size, which is 100 in this case.

The sample mean provides an estimate of the true population mean, which is what scientists aim to measure. However, it is important to remember that this is an estimate based on the sample and can differ from the true population mean. The reliability of the sample mean as an estimate improves with larger sample sizes.
Standard Deviation
Standard deviation, represented by \( s \), measures the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. In Michelson's measurements, the standard deviation is \( 79.01 \; \text{km/s} \). This tells us that, on average, the individual measurements are about 79.01 km/s away from the sample mean.

It's an important statistic because it provides insight into the consistency of the data. A smaller standard deviation means that the data points are closer to the mean, indicating more reliable measurements. Conversely, a larger standard deviation suggests more variability, which can influence our confidence in the sample mean as a representation of the true mean.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) of the mean measures how much the sample mean is expected to vary from the actual population mean. It is calculated using the formula \( SE = \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( s \) is the standard deviation and \( n \) is the sample size.

In Michelson's case, the standard error is \( 7.901 \; \text{km/s} \). The standard error is crucial because it helps in constructing the confidence interval, which indicates how accurate the sample mean is likely to be as a representation of the population mean. A smaller SE suggests that the sample mean is a more precise estimate of the true mean.
Critical Value
The critical value is a key component when constructing confidence intervals. For a 95% confidence interval with a large sample size, such as Michelson's 100 measurements, the critical value from the standard normal distribution is approximately 1.96.

This value indicates how many standard errors away from the sample mean we need to go to capture the true population mean with the desired confidence level. Multiplying the critical value by the standard error gives us the margin of error. The larger the critical value, the wider the confidence interval, which reflects more uncertainty in the estimate. Thus, understanding the critical value is essential for interpreting the range where the true mean is likely to lie.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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