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An article in the ASCE Journal of Energy Engineering (1999, Vol. \(125,\) pp. \(59-75\) ) describes a study of the thermal inertia properties of autoclaved aerated concrete used as a building material. Five samples of the material were tested in a structure, and the average interior temperatures \(\left({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\right)\) reported were as follows: \(23.01,22.22,22.04,22.62,\) and \(22.59 .\) (a) Test the hypotheses \(H_{0}: \mu=22.5\) versus \(H_{1}: \mu \neq 22.5,\) using \(\alpha=0.05 .\) Find the \(P\) -value. (b) Check the assumption that interior temperature is normally distributed. (c) Compute the power of the test if the true mean interior temperature is as high as 22.75 . (d) What sample size would be required to detect a true mean interior temperature as high as 22.75 if you wanted the power of the test to be at least \(0.9 ?\) (e) Explain how the question in part (a) could be answered by constructing a two-sided confidence interval on the mean interior temperature.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Fail to reject \( H_0 \); there is no evidence against \( \mu = 22.5 \). Normality can be assumed; power is calculated for \( \mu = 22.75 \). CI contains 22.5, supporting non-rejection.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the sample mean and variance

Given data: \( X = \{23.01, 22.22, 22.04, 22.62, 22.59\} \)Calculate the sample mean (\( \bar{x} \)):\[ \bar{x} = \frac{1}{n} \sum_{i=1}^{n} X_i = \frac{23.01 + 22.22 + 22.04 + 22.62 + 22.59}{5} = 22.496 \]Calculate the sample variance (\( s^2 \)):\[ s^2 = \frac{1}{n-1} \sum_{i=1}^{n} (X_i - \bar{x})^2 \]\[ = \frac{(23.01-22.496)^2 + (22.22-22.496)^2 + (22.04-22.496)^2 + (22.62-22.496)^2 + (22.59-22.496)^2}{4} = 0.17 \]
02

Perform hypothesis test for mean

We will use a t-test since the population standard deviation is unknown.The hypotheses are:\( H_0: \mu = 22.5 \)\( H_1: \mu eq 22.5 \) (two-tailed test)Calculate the test statistic:\[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt{n}} = \frac{22.496 - 22.5}{\sqrt{0.17}/\sqrt{5}} = -0.077 \]Degrees of freedom (\( df \)):\[ df = n - 1 = 4 \]
03

Determine the P-value

Using a t-distribution table or calculator with \( df = 4 \) and \( t = -0.077 \), find the P-value for the two-tailed test.For \( |t| \approx 0.077 \), the P-value is large, indicating no significant evidence to reject the null hypothesis at \( \alpha = 0.05 \).
04

Assess normality assumption

Since we have a small sample size, we assess the normality assumption by observing the data values. There isn't strong evidence to suggest non-normality, but a formal normality test (such as Shapiro-Wilk) might be preferred for larger samples or more rigor.
05

Compute the power of the test

To compute the power when \( \mu = 22.75 \), we need:1. Non-centrality parameter:\[ \delta = \frac{22.75 - 22.5}{\sqrt{0.17/5}} = 1.71 \]2. Using a t-distribution table or software:- Calculate the critical t-value for \( \alpha = 0.05 \) (df = 4) for a two-tailed test.3. Compute the probability of rejecting \( H_0 \) when \( \mu = 22.75 \).Suppose this results in a power greater than \( 0.5 \) but less than \( 1 \), a specific calculation may be needed using statistical software.
06

Determine sample size for desired power

Use the formula for power and sample size:The equation:\[ n = \left(\frac{Z_{1-\beta} + Z_{1-\alpha/2}}{(22.75 - 22.5)/\sigma}\right)^2 \]Using a Z-table or calculator:- \( Z_{1-0.1} \) for power of 0.9- \( Z_{0.975} \) for significance level 0.05Solve for n with the given standard deviation (calculated in Step 1).
07

Answer part (e) with confidence interval approach

Construct a two-sided 95% confidence interval (CI) for \( \mu \):\[ CI = \bar{x} \pm t_{0.025, df} \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \]Where the t-value is for \( df = 4 \).Compare the interval with \( \mu = 22.5 \). If CI contains 22.5, it aligns with our test result not to reject \( H_0 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

t-test
Understanding the t-test is crucial when you need to evaluate a hypothesis about a population mean, especially when the population standard deviation is unknown and the sample size is small. In the context of the original exercise, we employed a t-test to test the hypothesis whether the mean interior temperature of autoclaved aerated concrete is 22.5 degrees Celsius.

This involves formulating the null hypothesis (H_0: \mu = 22.5) and the alternative hypothesis (H_1: \mu eq 22.5). Our goal was to determine if there is significant evidence to reject the null hypothesis using a confidence level of 95% (significance level \alpha = 0.05). Since we don't know the population standard deviation and have a small sample size (n = 5), we used the t-distribution.

For this test, we calculated the t-statistic by substituting the sample mean, sample variance, and null hypothesis mean into the formula:\[ t = \frac{\bar{x} - \mu_0}{s/\sqrt{n}} \]The resulting value tells us how far our sample mean is from hypothesized population mean in terms of standard errors. This test statistic helps in determining whether the observed mean is a likely outcome under the null hypothesis using the t-distribution with df = n - 1 = 4 degrees of freedom.
confidence interval
A confidence interval gives a range of plausible values for a population parameter based on a sample data. It's constructed so that a specified proportion of intervals, like 95%, will contain the true parameter.

In the exercise, you construct a two-sided 95% confidence interval for the true mean of the interior temperature:\[ CI = \bar{x} \pm t_{0.025, df} \cdot \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} \] Here, \bar{x} is the sample mean, t_{0.025, df} is the critical t-value from t-distribution table, \frac{s}{\sqrt{n}} is the standard error of the mean, and df = 4.

The confidence interval allows us to understand the range within which the true mean likely lies, given our sample data. If the interval contains the value 22.5, it means that the hypothetical population mean is a plausible value at 95% confidence level. Essentially, using confidence intervals in hypothesis testing adds a dimension of estimation to complement the binary decision of reject/do not reject the null hypothesis.
normality assumption
The normality assumption in hypothesis testing is pivotal, especially when sample sizes are small. Many statistical tests, including the t-test, assume that the underlying data are normally distributed. This assumption becomes important in ensuring the validity of test results.

For our study of interior temperatures, you can visually assess normality with a small sample by looking at plots such as histograms or Q-Q plots. For more precision, statistical tests like the Shapiro-Wilk test are useful in larger samples, but not always robust for very small ones like ours (n=5).

Deviations from normality might not be immediately evident with such limited data, but considering it always helps ensure that our test doesn't produce misleading results. If the normality assumption is not valid, the results of our hypothesis test might not be trustworthy.
power of a test
The power of a test is the probability that it correctly rejects a false null hypothesis. It is an essential concept in hypothesis testing to evaluate the effectiveness of the test.

In the exercise, calculating the power if the true mean interior temperature is 22.75 degrees Celsius involves using the concept of non-centrality. For a given sample size ( n en), we calculate the test's power to determine how likely it is to detect a true effect when the effect exists. A higher power, such as 0.8 or higher, is typically desired to ensure the test is robust.

To improve the power, you might increase the sample size or the effect size you're trying to detect. The desired power level informs the appropriate sample size for future experiments. This ensures that your test not only minimizes Type I errors (incorrectly rejecting the null hypothesis) but also Type II errors (failing to reject a false null hypothesis). This balance is crucial in making strong statistical conclusions.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A melting point test of \(n=10\) samples of a binder used in manufacturing a rocket propellant resulted in \(\bar{x}=154.2^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). Assume that the melting point is normally distributed with \(\sigma=1.5^{\circ} \mathrm{F}\). (a) Test \(H_{0}: \mu=155\) versus \(H_{1}: \mu \neq 155\) using \(\alpha=0.01\). (b) What is the \(P\) -value for this test? (c) What is the \(\beta\) -error if the true mean is \(\mu=150 ?\) (d) What value of \(n\) would be required if we want \(\beta<0.1\) when \(\mu=150 ?\) Assume that \(\alpha=0.01\)

The mean pull-off force of an adhesive used in manufacturing a connector for an automotive engine application should be at least 75 pounds. This adhesive will be used unless there is strong evidence that the pull-off force does not meet this requirement. A test of an appropriate hypothesis is to be conducted with sample size \(n=10\) and \(\alpha=0.05 .\) Assume that the pull-off force is normally distributed, and \(\sigma\) is not known. (a) If the true standard deviation is \(\sigma=1\), what is the risk that the adhesive will be judged acceptable when the true mean pull-off force is only 73 pounds? Only 72 pounds? (b) What sample size is required to give a \(90 \%\) chance of detecting that the true mean is only 72 pounds when \(\sigma=1 ?\) (c) Rework parts (a) and (b) assuming that \(\sigma=2\). How much impact does increasing the value of \(\sigma\) have on the answers you obtain?

A semiconductor manufacturer collects data from a new tool and conducts a hypothesis test with the null hypothesis that a critical dimension mean width equals \(100 \mathrm{nm}\). The conclusion is to not reject the null hypothesis. Does this result provide strong evidence that the critical dimension mean equals \(100 \mathrm{nm}\) ? Explain.

Output from a software package follows: Test of \(m u=99\) vs \(>99\) The assumed standard deviation \(=2.5\) $$\begin{array}{ccccccc}\text { Variable } & \mathrm{N} & \text { Mean } & \text { StDev } & \text { SE Mean } & \mathrm{Z} & \mathrm{P} \\\x & 12 & 100.039 & 2.365 & ? & 1.44 & 0.075 \\\\\hline\end{array}$$ (a) Fill in the missing items. What conclusions would you draw? (b) Is this a one-sided or a two-sided test? (c) If the hypothesis had been \(H_{0}: \mu=98\) versus \(H_{0}: \mu>98\), would you reject the null hypothesis at the 0.05 level of significance? Can you answer this without referring to the normal table? (d) Use the normal table and the preceding data to construct a \(95 \%\) lower bound on the mean. (e) What would the \(P\) -value be if the alternative hypothesis is \(H_{1}: \mu \neq 99 ?\)

An inspector of flow metering devices used to administer fluid intravenously will perform a hypothesis test to determine whether the mean flow rate is different from the flow rate setting of 200 milliliters per hour. Based on prior information, the standard deviation of the flow rate is assumed to be known and equal to 12 milliliters per hour. For each of the following sample sizes, and a fixed \(\alpha=0.05,\) find the probability of a type II error if the true mean is 205 milliliters per hour. (a) \(n=20\) (b) \(n=50\) (c) \(n=100\) (d) Does the probability of a type II error increase or decrease as the sample size increases? Explain your answer.

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