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Consider the confidence interval for \(\mu\) with known standard deviation \(\sigma\) : $$ \bar{x}-z_{\alpha_{1}} \sigma / \sqrt{n} \leq \mu \leq \bar{x}+z_{\alpha_{2}} \sigma / \sqrt{n} $$ where \(\alpha_{1}+\alpha_{2}=\alpha .\) Let \(\alpha=0.05\) and find the interval for \(\alpha_{1}=\alpha_{2}=\alpha / 2=0.025 .\) Now find the interval for the case \(\alpha_{1}=0.01\) and \(\alpha_{2}=0.04 .\) Which interval is shorter? Is there any advantage to a "symmetric" confidence interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The symmetric interval is shorter. Symmetric intervals simplify interpretation.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Symmetric Confidence Interval

For a symmetric confidence interval where \( \alpha_1 = \alpha_2 = 0.025 \), we use \( z_{0.025} \). This represents the critical value that corresponds to the 0.025 tail of the standard normal distribution, commonly denoted as \( z_{0.025} = 1.96 \). We substitute into the formula: \[ \bar{x} - 1.96\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \leq \mu \leq \bar{x} + 1.96\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \].
02

Calculating the Interval for \(\alpha_1 = 0.01\) and \(\alpha_2 = 0.04\)

When \( \alpha_1 = 0.01 \) and \( \alpha_2 = 0.04 \), we calculate two different critical values: \( z_{0.01} \) and \( z_{0.04} \). From the standard normal distribution table, \( z_{0.01} = 2.33 \) and \( z_{0.04} = 1.75 \). Thus, the confidence interval is \[ \bar{x} - 2.33\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \leq \mu \leq \bar{x} + 1.75\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \].
03

Comparing the Length of Both Intervals

Calculate the length of both confidence intervals to determine which is shorter. For the symmetric case: length \( L = 2 \cdot 1.96 \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = 3.92 \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \). For the asymmetric case: length \( L = (2.33 + 1.75)\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} = 4.08 \cdot \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \).
04

Conclusion on Interval Length and Symmetry Advantage

The symmetric interval is shorter than the asymmetric one (3.92 vs 4.08). Symmetric intervals utilize the same critical value for each tail, potentially simplifying interpretation as it handles both tails equally and may offer better interpretability and standardization in analysis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Standard Deviation
Standard deviation is a measure that quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values.
It's a crucial concept in statistics used to understand how spread out numbers in a data set are from the mean. To calculate standard deviation, follow these general steps:
  • Find the mean (average) of your data set.
  • Subtract the mean and square the result for each data point.
  • Calculate the average of these squared differences.
  • Take the square root of this average to get the standard deviation.
A low standard deviation means that the data points are clustered closely around the mean, suggesting low variability.
A high standard deviation indicates more spread out data, showing high variability. Understanding standard deviation is vital because it plays an essential role in confidence intervals. When constructing confidence intervals, standard deviation helps us gauge how much our sample mean could differ from the true population mean.
Symmetric Confidence Interval
A symmetric confidence interval ensures that the probability of finding the true population parameter, like the mean, is equally distributed in both tails of the distribution curve. The basic formula for a symmetric confidence interval is:\[\bar{x} - z_{\alpha/2}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \leq \mu \leq \bar{x} + z_{\alpha/2}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]Here, \( \bar{x} \) is the sample mean, \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation, \( n \) is the sample size, and \( z_{\alpha/2} \) is the z-score that corresponds to the desired level of confidence;
for example, 1.96 for a 95% confidence interval. This interval splits equally on both sides of the sample mean, giving symmetry.Using a symmetric confidence interval comes with advantages. Since the interval is the same on both sides, it simplifies calculations and interpretations of results. It provides an easy-to-understand boundary for the estimated parameter across different studies, maintaining the sample mean as the central point. Many statistical analyses standardize these symmetric intervals, making comparisons straightforward across different datasets.
This is particularly useful when your data follows a normal distribution, ensuring accuracy and efficiency in statistical interpretation.
Asymmetric Confidence Interval
Unlike its symmetric counterpart, an asymmetric confidence interval involves different z-scores for both tails of the distribution. This interval does not equally divide the probability across each tail:\[\bar{x} - z_{\alpha_1}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \leq \mu \leq \bar{x} + z_{\alpha_2}\frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}}\]Here, \( z_{\alpha_1} \) and \( z_{\alpha_2} \) represent different critical values for the left and right tails, respectively.
As seen in the example, \( \alpha_1 = 0.01 \) and \( \alpha_2 = 0.04 \) correspond to \( z \)-scores of 2.33 and 1.75.An asymmetric confidence interval offers flexibility when one tail of your distribution needs more focus or accuracy.
This can be crucial in fields where either false positives or false negatives carry a heavier cost. By adjusting the width of the interval on one side, researchers can tailor confidence intervals to match the importance of potential outcomes.
However, this complexity adds to the difficulty of interpretation and requires more careful consideration when applied, mainly when results deviate from normal distributions. The length and computation of these intervals might complicate the standardization of comparisons, making them less common for general studies.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

An article in the Journal of Agricultural Science ["The Use of Residual Maximum Likelihood to Model Grain Quality Characteristics of Wheat with Variety, Climatic and Nitrogen Fertilizer Effects" (1997, Vol. 128, pp. \(135-142\) ) ] investigated means of wheat grain crude protein content (CP) and Hagberg falling number (HFN) surveyed in the United Kingdom. The analysis used a variety of nitrogen fertilizer applications \((\mathrm{kg} \mathrm{N} / \mathrm{ha}),\) temperature \(\left({ }^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\right),\) and total monthly rainfall \((\mathrm{mm})\). The following data below describe temperatures for wheat grown at Harper Adams Agricultural College between 1982 and \(1993 .\) The temperatures measured in June were obtained as follows: $$ \begin{array}{llllll} 15.2 & 14.2 & 14.0 & 12.2 & 14.4 & 12.5 \\ 14.3 & 14.2 & 13.5 & 11.8 & 15.2 & \end{array} $$ Assume that the standard deviation is known to be \(\sigma=0.5\) (a) Construct a \(99 \%\) two-sided confidence interval on the mean temperature. (b) Construct a \(95 \%\) lower-confidence bound on the mean temperature. (c) Suppose that you wanted to be \(95 \%\) confident that the error in estimating the mean temperature is less than 2 degrees Celsius. What sample size should be used? (d) Suppose that you wanted the total width of the two-sided confidence interval on mean temperature to be 1.5 degrees Celsius at \(95 \%\) confidence. What sample size should be used?

Suppose that \(n=100\) random samples of water from a freshwater lake were taken and the calcium concentration (milligrams per liter) measured. A \(95 \%\) CI on the mean calcium concentration is \(0.49 \leq \mu \leq 0.82\). (a) Would a \(99 \%\) CI calculated from the same sample data be longer or shorter? (b) Consider the following statement: There is a \(95 \%\) chance that \(\mu\) is between 0.49 and \(0.82 .\) Is this statement correct? Explain your answer. (c) Consider the following statement: If \(n=100\) random samples of water from the lake were taken and the \(95 \% \mathrm{CI}\) on \(\mu\) computed, and this process were repeated 1000 times, 950 of the CIs would contain the true value of \(\mu\). Is this statement correct? Explain your answer.

A random sample has been taken from a normal distribution and the following confidence intervals constructed using the same data: (37.53,49.87) and (35.59,51.81) (a) What is the value of the sample mean? (b) One of these intervals is a \(99 \% \mathrm{CI}\) and the other is a \(95 \%\) CI. Which one is the \(95 \%\) CI and why?

The 2004 presidential election exit polls from the critical state of Ohio provided the following results. The exit polls had 2020 respondents, 768 of whom were college graduates. Of the college graduates, 412 voted for George Bush. (a) Calculate a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the proportion of college graduates in Ohio who voted for George Bush. (b) Calculate a \(95 \%\) lower confidence bound for the proportion of college graduates in Ohio who voted for George Bush.

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