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Suppose that 1000 seven-digit telephone numbers within your area code are dialed randomly. What is the probability that your number is called?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is approximately \( 0.0001 \) or 0.01%.

Step by step solution

01

Define Total Outcomes

There are 10,000,000 possible seven-digit telephone numbers (from 0000000 to 9999999). This is because each digit can be from 0 to 9, and the number is 7 digits long.
02

Define Favorable Outcomes

Your telephone number is a specific one among those 10,000,000 seven-digit numbers. This means there is only 1 favorable outcome for your number being dialed.
03

Calculate Probability of a Single Call

The probability of your specific number being called in a single random call is given by the ratio of favorable outcomes to total outcomes: \( \frac{1}{10,000,000} \).
04

Calculate Probability of Not Being Called in a Single Call

The probability of not being called in a single random call is 1 minus the probability of being called: \( 1 - \frac{1}{10,000,000} = \frac{9,999,999}{10,000,000} \).
05

Calculate Probability of Not Being Called in 1000 Calls

The probability that your number is not called at all in 1000 selections is the product of the individual probabilities for each call: \( \left(\frac{9,999,999}{10,000,000}\right)^{1000} \).
06

Calculate Probability of Being Called in 1000 Calls

The probability that your number is called at least once in 1000 random selections is 1 minus the probability that it is not called at all: \( 1 - \left(\frac{9,999,999}{10,000,000}\right)^{1000} \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Selection
Random selection is the process by which a choice is made without a particular pattern or rule in picking one option among many. In the context of the telephone number exercise, random selection refers to the dialing of any one of the possible 10,000,000 seven-digit numbers without bias or preference. Each number has an equal chance of being chosen.
In probability theory, random selection ensures that every outcome possible within a given set of outcomes is equally likely. It is akin to picking a name out of a hat where all names are put in without favoring any specific one.
In practice, when a number is randomly selected, it implies that there are no external factors influencing which number is chosen—every choice is purely by chance. This is foundational to our calculation of probabilities in the given scenario.
Favorable Outcomes
In probability, favorable outcomes are the specific results you are interested in when an event occurs. For the telephone number problem, the favorable outcome is your own phone number being dialed.
There are literally millions of possibilities, but only one outcome counts as favorable for you—the one where your specific phone number is called.
Favorable outcomes are critical in calculating probability because they define what success or desired results mean in the context of the question. In this scenario, there’s only a singular favorable outcome among 10,000,000 possibilities.
Probability Calculation
Probability calculation is the process of quantifying the likelihood of an event occurring. It uses the formula:
\[P( ext{Event}) = \frac{ ext{Number of Favorable Outcomes}}{ ext{Total Number of Possible Outcomes}} \]
The chance of your phone number being dialed randomly is calculated by identifying the number of favorable outcomes (which is 1, your number being called) over the total possible outcomes (10,000,000 possible seven-digit telephone numbers).
Thus, the probability P of your number being called in one random dial is:
\[P( ext{Your number called}) = \frac{1}{10,000,000}\]
Understanding how to calculate probability helps you appreciate the sheer unlikelihood of any single specific event occurring when so many possibilities exist.
Telephone Numbers
Telephone numbers are often used as excellent examples in probability problems due to the vast number of combinations they present. Every digit from 0 to 9 can be any digit in a sequence—this permits around 10 million different possibilities for a seven-digit number. This large range makes calculating probabilities interesting as it models real-world random scenarios effectively.
  • Each digit increases the complexity exponentially.
  • 7-digit numbers have 10 million possible combinations (0 to 9 for each of 7 sequential spots).
These numbers help us understand the nuance of probability by physically quantifying how many results there could be and how frequently a specific outcome might occur.
Independent Events
Independent events refer to scenarios where the occurrence of one event does not affect the probability of another event happening. In the telephone number exercise, each phone number dialed is an independent event.
This implies that whether or not your number is called does not influence the chance of it being called in the next dial, or any other in the sequence.
* Repeatedly dialing numbers independently means each selection is a new chance without memory of the previous ones. * Independence is crucial for assessing scenarios where events have no conditional effects on one another.
In the context of calculating the probability of your number being called in 1000 independent calls, the calculations emphasize how the chances remain consistently small for each attempt due to independence, yet the cumulative probability adjusts due to numerous opportunities for success.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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