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The probability that your call to a service line is answered in less than 30 seconds is \(0.75 .\) Assume that your calls are independent. (a) What is the probability that you must call six times in order for two of your calls to be answered in less than 30 seconds? (b) What is the mean number of calls to obtain two answers in less than 30 seconds?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) 0.011; (b) 2.67 calls.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find the probability that two calls are answered in less than 30 seconds out of six calls. This situation can be modeled using the negative binomial distribution.
02

Define the Variables

The probability of success (a call answered in less than 30 seconds) is given as \( p = 0.75 \). We need exactly \( r = 2 \) successful calls, with a total of \( n = 6 \) calls.
03

Apply the Negative Binomial Formula

The negative binomial probability is given by \( P(X = n) = \binom{n-1}{r-1} p^r (1-p)^{n-r} \). Here, \( X \) is the number of trials needed to achieve \( r \) successes. Plug in \( n = 6 \), \( r = 2\), and \( p = 0.75 \) into the formula.
04

Calculate the Probability

Plug the values into the formula: \( P(X = 6) = \binom{5}{1} (0.75)^2 (0.25)^4 \). Calculate: \( \binom{5}{1} = 5 \), \( (0.75)^2 = 0.5625 \), and \( (0.25)^4 = 0.00390625 \). Multiply it out: \( 5 \times 0.5625 \times 0.00390625 = 0.010986328125 \).
05

Calculate the Mean Calls for Achieving 2 Successes

The mean number of calls needed to achieve \( r \) successes in a negative binomial distribution is given by \( \frac{r}{p} \). Substitute \( r = 2 \) and \( p = 0.75 \) to calculate the mean: \( \frac{2}{0.75} = 2.67 \).
06

Conclusion

The probability that it takes exactly six calls to get two answered in less than 30 seconds is approximately 0.011. The mean number of calls needed to achieve two successes is 2.67.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability of Success
The probability of success in this context is the chance that your phone call will be answered within a specified time frame, which in this problem is less than 30 seconds. This is a basic yet crucial concept in understanding distributions. Here, the probability of success, denoted as \( p \), is given as 0.75. This means that each call has a 75% chance of being answered in less than 30 seconds.

When dealing with probabilities in a distribution, especially the negative binomial, knowing the probability of success is key, as it determines various aspects of the probability model. In our scenario, we assume that each call is independent, meaning that the result of one call doesn't affect another. This is an important assumption in probability theory, ensuring that each event only depends on the underlying probability of success, \( p \), which remains constant for every call.
Mean Number of Calls
The mean number of calls refers to the average or expected number of attempts it takes to achieve a certain number of successes, given a probability of success. Within the context of a negative binomial distribution, this provides us with an understanding of how often we might expect to make calls until achieving our goal.

In this problem, the formula used to find the mean number of calls necessary to achieve \( r \) successes is given by \( \frac{r}{p} \). Here, \( r \) is the total number of successful outcomes we want, which is 2, and \( p \) is 0.75, the probability of success for each call. By substituting these values into the formula, we get \( \frac{2}{0.75} = 2.67 \).

This means that, on average, you would expect to make about 2.67 calls to have two of them answered in less than 30 seconds. The mean value helps in planning and predicting outcomes over many attempts.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient is a crucial component of the formula used in calculating probabilities for both the binomial and negative binomial distributions. In our problem, it signifies the number of ways to choose \( r-1 \) successes out of \( n-1 \) trials. This is often denoted as \( \binom{n-1}{r-1} \), where \( \binom{n-1}{r-1} = \frac{(n-1)!}{(r-1)!(n-r)!} \).

For the given exercise, when we need to calculate the probability of exactly two out of six calls being answered in under 30 seconds, we utilize the binomial coefficient. Plugging into the coefficient formula gives us \( \binom{5}{1} \), because we are choosing 1 success scenario out of the 5 remaining trials (after one success has already occurred).

Calculating \( \binom{5}{1} \), results in 5, indicating there are 5 ways to achieve the desired outcome of two calls being answered correctly from six attempts. Understanding the binomial coefficient helps in arranging and calculating these scenarios effectively.

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