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Suppose that lesions are present at 5 sites among 50 in a patient. A biopsy selects 8 sites randomly (without replacement). (a) What is the probability that lesions are present in at least one selected site? (b) What is the probability that lesions are present in two or more selected sites? (c) Instead of eight sites, what is the minimum number of sites that need to be selected to meet the following objective? The probability that at least one site has lesions present is greater than or equal to 0.9.

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Approximately 0.531; (b) Greater than 0.5; (c) At least 9 sites are required.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Scenario

We have 50 sites, with lesions on 5 of these sites. We are randomly selecting 8 out of the 50 sites and need to calculate the probability of selecting sites with lesions.
02

Calculate Probability of No Lesions (a)

To find the probability of lesions at least at one site, first calculate the probability of having no lesions: \[ P(0) = \frac{{\binom{45}{8}}}{{\binom{50}{8}}} \]Calculate these binomial coefficients and the probability: \[ \binom{45}{8} = 45! / (8!(45-8)!) \] \[ \binom{50}{8} = 50! / (8!(50-8)!) \]Then substitute the values to find the probability for no lesions.
03

Calculate Lesions Present at Least One Site (a)

The probability of lesions being present at least at one site is:\[ P(\geq 1) = 1 - P(0) \]Use the previously calculated probability of no lesions to determine \( P(\geq 1) \).
04

Calculate Probability of Lesions at Two or More Sites (b)

First, determine the probability of lesions at exactly one site:\[ P(1) = \frac{{\binom{5}{1} \binom{45}{7}}}{{\binom{50}{8}}} \]Then, calculate the probability of lesions at two or more sites:\[ P(\geq 2) = 1 - P(0) - P(1) \]
05

Determine Minimum Sites for 0.9 Probability (c)

We need to determine the minimum number of sites \( n \) to select such that the probability is at least 0.9 that one or more sites have lesions:\[ 1 - \frac{{\binom{45}{n}}}{{\binom{50}{n}}} \geq 0.9 \]This can be solved by iterative substitution of integers for \( n \) and calculating until the condition is satisfied.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Combinatorics
Combinatorics is a branch of mathematics focused on counting, arrangement, and combination of objects. In the context of the exercise, combinatorics is used to determine the number of possible selections of biopsy sites from a total set of 50 sites. The fundamental principle used here involves combinations, which represent ways to choose items from a larger set where the order does not matter.

Combinations can be calculated using factorials, denoted by an exclamation mark (!). A factorial of a number is the product of all positive integers up to that number. For example, 5! = 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 = 120. The notation \( \binom{n}{k} \) represents the number of combinations possible when selecting \( k \) items from \( n \), and is calculated by the formula:\[ \binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!} \]

Understanding how to compute combinations is essential in accurately finding probabilities in such scenarios. In this exercise, it helps us find out how many different sets of eight biopsies we can select from 50 sites, and among these, how many include the lesion sites.
Binomial Coefficients
Binomial coefficients arise in the field of combinatorics and are crucial when dealing with problems involving selection or distribution. In our exercise, we use them to calculate the likelihood of selecting certain sites that may or may not have lesions.

In the given problem, the binomial coefficient \( \binom{n}{k} \) is used to denote the number of ways to choose \( k \) sites from \( n \) sites. For example:\[ \binom{50}{8} \]represents the number of ways to choose 8 sites out of 50, whereas \( \binom{45}{8} \) indicates choosing 8 sites from the remaining 45 non-lesion sites.

These coefficients help in understanding how many combinations of lesion and non-lesion sites can be drawn upon random selection, which directly affects the probability calculations involved in our exercise. Accurately calculating these coefficients is fundamental to solving probability problems such as those presented.
Random Selection
The concept of random selection is pivotal in probability theory, especially in this exercise where we are conducting a biopsy by randomly selecting 8 sites from a total of 50.

Random selection ensures that each site has an equal chance of being chosen, making the process unbiased and fair. This randomness is what lends the problem its probabilistic nature, as the outcomes (which sites are selected) cannot be determined in advance with certainty.

It's important to note that the selection is done without replacement, which means once a site is selected, it cannot be selected again. This affects the calculations as the total number of available sites decreases with each selection. Understanding this helps us to use the right combinatorial models and calculate the probabilities accurately. In real-world applications such as medical biopsies, ensuring randomness might mean employing certain protocols or techniques to eliminate bias and ensure validity.
Lesion Probability Calculations
Lesion probability calculations are based on combinatorial principles used to find the likelihood of certain configurations of selections that include sites with lesions. This is a matter of finding probabilities by comparing how many desired selections are possible versus the total number of possible selections.

In the exercise, we calculated various probabilities:
  • Probability of selecting at least one lesion: First, calculate the probability of no lesions being selected using: \[ P(0) = \frac{\binom{45}{8}}{\binom{50}{8}} \]
  • The probability of selecting one or more lesions is then the complement: \[ P(\geq 1) = 1 - P(0) \]
  • For two or more lesions, account for exactly one lesion using \[ \binom{5}{1}\binom{45}{7} \], then compute: \[ P(\geq 2) = 1 - P(0) - P(1) \]
  • To find the minimum number of selections needed for at least a 90% chance of finding a lesion, an iterative approach is used, modifying \( n \) in \[ 1 - \frac{\binom{45}{n}}{\binom{50}{n}} \geq 0.9 \]
The logic behind these calculations is to explore the different ways lesion-bearing sites can appear in selected biopsies and express this probabilistically. These calculations are critical when determining sufficient sampling sizes for accurate medical diagnostics or experiments.

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