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Consider the time to recharge the flash in cell-phone cameras as in Example \(3-2 .\) Assume that the probability that a camera passes the test is 0.8 and the cameras perform independently. What is the smallest sample size needed so that the probability of at least one camera failing is at least \(95 \% ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
The smallest sample size needed is 14.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the smallest sample size \( n \) such that the probability that at least one camera fails is at least 95%. The probability that a camera fails is \( 1 - 0.8 = 0.2 \).
02

Express the Complement Event

The complement event to at least one camera failing is that all cameras pass the test. The probability of all \( n \) cameras passing is \( 0.8^n \).
03

Set Up the Inequality

We need the probability of at least one camera failing to be at least 95%, which is expressed as \( 1 - 0.8^n \geq 0.95 \).
04

Solve the Inequality

Rearrange the inequality to solve for \( n \):\[ 0.8^n \leq 0.05 \]Take the natural logarithm on both sides:\[ n \cdot \ln(0.8) \leq \ln(0.05) \]Divide both sides by \( \ln(0.8) \) (which is negative, so the inequality sign reverses):\[ n \geq \frac{\ln(0.05)}{\ln(0.8)} \]
05

Calculate \( n \)

Calculate the numerical value:\[ n \geq \frac{-2.9957}{-0.2231} \approx 13.42 \]Since \( n \) must be a whole number, round up to the nearest whole number: \( n = 14 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability of Failure
In the context of this problem, the probability of failure is a crucial concept. It is defined by the probability that a single event does not succeed. In our exercise, this event is the inability of a camera to pass the test. Given that a camera has a 0.8 probability of passing, the probability it fails is simply:
  • Failure Probability = 1 - Passing Probability
  • Failure Probability = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2
Thus, the probability of failure for each camera is 0.2, implying a 20% chance that an individual camera won't meet the criteria. Understanding this helps set the stage for upcoming calculations involving groups of cameras.
Binomial Probability
Binomial probability is used when calculating events with two possible outcomes: success or failure. Each camera being tested represents a trial, where the outcome is either it passes or it does not. The concept helps us understand how likely it is for at least one camera to fail out of a group.In our scenario, we consider the binomial distribution of n cameras all passing the test. The probability of this is given by raising the success probability (0.8) to the power of n: \[ \text{Probability of all n cameras passing} = 0.8^n \]The complementary probability, that at least one camera fails, is calculated as:\[ 1 - 0.8^n \]This formula is essential to identify the smallest n such that this complementary probability reaches or exceeds 95%.
Inequality Solving
Inequality solving involves finding the values of variables that satisfy a given inequality condition. In this exercise, we set the condition that the probability of at least one camera failing should be no less than 95%. Hence, we have the inequality:\[ 1 - 0.8^n \geq 0.95 \]By solving this inequality, we rearrange it to:\[ 0.8^n \leq 0.05 \]This shows us the need to solve for n, which represents the sample size. Solving inequalities often requires manipulations like taking natural logs. This allows us to linearize the problem, making it easier to handle.
Natural Logarithm
The natural logarithm, often denoted as \( \ln \), is a logarithm to the base e, where e is approximately 2.71828. It is particularly helpful in simplifying calculations involving exponential growth or decay. In the given problem, the natural logarithm is employed to solve the inequality by converting an exponential function into a linear relationship.After establishing the inequality:\[ 0.8^n \leq 0.05 \]We take the natural logarithm of both sides to remove the exponent, which results in:\[ n \cdot \ln(0.8) \leq \ln(0.05) \]This transformation changes multiplicative relationships into additive ones, easing the calculation process. Since \( \ln(0.8) \) is negative, dividing both sides by it reverses the inequality sign:\[ n \geq \frac{\ln(0.05)}{\ln(0.8)} \]This step is vital for determining the smallest integer n, representing the required sample size.

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