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A paper in Quality Engineering [2013, Vol. 25(1)] presented data on cycles to failure of solder joints at different temperatures for different types of printed circuit boards (PCB). Failure data for two temperatures ( 20 and \(60^{\circ} \mathrm{C}\) ) for a copper-nickel-gold PCB follow. $$\begin{array}{ll}20^{\circ} \mathrm{C} & 218,265,279,282,336,469,496,507,685,685 \\\\\hline 60^{\circ} \mathrm{C} &185,242,254,280,305,353,381,504,556,697\end{array}$$ (a) Test the null hypothesis at \(\alpha=0.05\) that the cycles to failure are the same at both temperatures. Is the alternative one or two sided? (b) Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the difference in the mean cycles to failure for the two temperatures. (c) Is the value zero contained in the \(95 \%\) confidence interval? Explain the connection with the conclusion you reached in part (a). (d) Do normal probability plots of part cycles to failure indicate any violations of the assumptions for the tests and confidence interval that you performed?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Perform a two-sided t-test, zero is not in the CI, confirming significant difference. Check normality assumptions with probability plots.

Step by step solution

01

Verify the Testing Approach

The problem asks for a hypothesis test, specifically to compare the means of two independent samples (20°C and 60°C data). Hence, we'll conduct a two-sample t-test to determine if there's a significant difference in the cycles to failure at the two temperatures. The alternative is two-sided because we are checking for any difference, not just greater or less.
02

Calculate Sample Means and Variances

Calculate the sample means and variances for both temperatures.- For 20°C: Mean (\(\bar{x}_1\)) and variance (\(s_1^2\)).- For 60°C: Mean (\(\bar{x}_2\)) and variance (\(s_2^2\)).These values will be needed to compute the test statistic and confidence interval.
03

Perform the Two-Sample t-Test

Compute the test statistic under the null hypothesis using the formula:\[t = \frac{\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2}{\sqrt{\frac{s_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{s_2^2}{n_2}}}\]where \(n_1 = n_2 = 10\). Determine the critical value from the t-distribution table for a two-tailed test at \(\alpha = 0.05\), and compare it with the calculated t-value to decide on the hypothesis.
04

Construct the 95% Confidence Interval for Difference in Means

Calculate the standard error for the difference in means and then construct the confidence interval using:\[CI = (\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2) \pm t^* \times \sqrt{\frac{s_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{s_2^2}{n_2}}\]where \(t^*\) is the critical value from the t-distribution for a 95% confidence level with degrees of freedom calculated through approximation.
05

Check if Zero is in the Confidence Interval

Evaluate if zero lies within the calculated 95% confidence interval for the difference in means. If zero is not within the interval, it implies a significant difference between the means at the two temperatures.
06

Conclusion of Steps (a) and (c)

If the null hypothesis in Step 3 was rejected, zero should not be in the confidence interval from Step 5, showing consistency between hypothesis test and confidence interval. If it was not rejected, zero will be contained in the interval.
07

Assess Normal Probability Plots

Create normal probability plots for both 20°C and 60°C cycles to check if data follows a normal distribution (required for the t-test and interval). Look for a straight line pattern to confirm normality. Deviations suggest potential issues with assumptions, which could affect test results.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Two-sample t-test
To determine if there is a significant difference between the two groups, a two-sample t-test is used. This test compares the means of two independent samples to assess whether they are statistically different from each other. Here, we applied it to the solder joint failure cycles at 20°C and 60°C.

When conducting a two-sample t-test, you start by setting up two hypotheses:
  • Null Hypothesis (\(H_0\)): There is no difference in the mean cycles to failure between the two temperatures. This implies any observed difference is due to random chance.
  • Alternative Hypothesis (\(H_a\)): There is a difference in the mean cycles to failure between the two temperatures. Since we are checking for any difference (not greater or less), it's two-sided.
Use the formula:\[t = \frac{\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2}{\sqrt{\frac{s_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{s_2^2}{n_2}}}\]where \(\bar{x}_1\) and \(\bar{x}_2\) are the sample means, and \(s_1^2\) and \(s_2^2\) are the sample variances.

Calculate the test statistic and compare it against critical values from the t-distribution table at the chosen significance level. If the test statistic exceeds the critical value, you reject the null hypothesis, indicating a statistically significant difference between the two temperatures.
Confidence Intervals
Confidence intervals provide a range of values that likely contain the true difference between population means. For the solder joint example, a 95% confidence interval was calculated for the difference in mean cycles to failure between the two temperatures. This interval gives us an estimate of the difference with a specified level of confidence.

The formula to calculate the confidence interval is:\[CI = (\bar{x}_1 - \bar{x}_2) \pm t^* \times \sqrt{\frac{s_1^2}{n_1} + \frac{s_2^2}{n_2}}\]where \(t^*\) is the critical value from the t-distribution table for a 95% confidence level and calculated degrees of freedom.

When zero is not within the interval, it suggests a significant difference in means between the two groups. Conversely, if zero is included, it suggests that any difference could be due to random chance. In hypothesis testing, this consistency between the test result and confidence interval helps corroborate findings. Thus, a confidence interval not containing zero aligns with rejecting the null hypothesis in a two-sample t-test.
Normal Distribution Assumptions
The normal distribution assumption is crucial for the validity of many statistical tests, including the two-sample t-test. This assumption requires that the data from both samples should approximately follow a normal distribution. To assess this, normal probability plots can be created.

A normal probability plot plots the sorted data versus theoretical quantiles from a normal distribution. If the data points closely follow a straight line, it indicates that the data is normally distributed. This is necessary because the t-test relies on the assumption of normality, especially when the sample size is small (usually \(n < 30\)).

Deviations from a straight line in these plots suggest violations of the normality assumption. In such cases, results from hypothesis testing might be misleading. Alternate tests, like non-parametric methods, may be needed if the data departs significantly from normality. Ensuring this assumption holds allows researchers to have greater confidence in their hypothesis testing and confidence interval estimates.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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