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A manufacturer produces piston rings for an automobile engine. It is known that ring diameter is normally distributed with \(\sigma=0.001\) millimeters. A random sample of 15 rings has a mean diameter of \(\bar{x}=74.036\) millimeters. (a) Construct a \(99 \%\) two-sided confidence interval on the mean piston ring diameter. (b) Construct a \(99 \%\) lower-confidence bound on the mean piston ring diameter. Compare the lower bound of this confidence interval with the one in part (a)

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Confidence interval: [74.035334, 74.036666] mm. (b) Lower bound: 74.035334 mm, same as part (a).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We need to find a confidence interval for the mean diameter of piston rings, given that the diameter is normally distributed with a known standard deviation. We will construct a two-sided 99% confidence interval and then find a 99% lower-bound confidence interval for the mean.
02

Find the Standard Error

The standard error (SE) of the mean is calculated using the formula \( SE = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \), where \( \sigma = 0.001 \) mm and \( n = 15 \). So, \( SE = \frac{0.001}{\sqrt{15}} \approx 0.0002582 \) mm.
03

Determine the Z-value for 99% Confidence Interval

For a 99% confidence interval, we use the Z-value associated with 99% confidence, which is approximately 2.576.
04

Construct the Two-Sided Confidence Interval

The formula for a two-sided confidence interval is \( \bar{x} \pm Z \cdot SE \). Substituting the values: \( 74.036 \pm 2.576 \cdot 0.0002582 \). This results in a confidence interval of \( 74.036 \pm 0.000666 \). Thus, the interval is \([74.035334, 74.036666]\) mm.
05

Construct the Lower Confidence Bound

For a lower confidence bound, we use the formula \( \bar{x} - Z \cdot SE \). Thus, the lower bound is \( 74.036 - 2.576 \cdot 0.0002582 = 74.035334 \) mm.
06

Compare Lower Bounds

The lower-bound of the two-sided interval is the same as the lower confidence bound calculated separately, both approximating \( 74.035334 \) mm.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Normal Distribution
Normal distribution is a fundamental concept in statistics, often visualized as a bell-shaped curve. It describes data that clusters around a mean or average value.If you imagine a histogram of your data, a normal distribution would show most values falling around the central mean, with fewer and fewer values appearing as you move away from the center.
  • Characteristics: Symmetrical, bell-shaped, and continuous.
  • The mean, median, and mode of a normal distribution are all the same.
  • It is defined by two parameters: the mean (\( \ar{x} \)) and the standard deviation (\( \sigma \)).

In our exercise, the piston ring diameters are assumed to follow a normal distribution.This assumption allows us to use specific statistical methods to construct confidence intervals.It is critical to understand that while many natural phenomena approximate a normal distribution, no real-world data is perfectly normal.
Nonetheless, normal distribution is a crucial concept because it serves as a handy model for statistical inference, helping statisticians make predictions about a population based on sample data.
Standard Error
The standard error (SE) is a measure that reflects the amount of variability or dispersion in a sample mean.It is used to estimate the standard deviation of a sampling distribution.The smaller the standard error, the more representative the sample mean is of the population mean.
  • Formula: \[ SE = \frac{\sigma}{\sqrt{n}} \]where \( \sigma \) is the standard deviation and \( n \) is the sample size.
  • Role: It plays a critical role in calculating confidence intervals.
  • Impact: A larger sample size will result in a smaller standard error, indicating more precise estimates of the population mean.

In our exercise, the SE is calculated as \( 0.0002582 \) mm.This small value indicates that our sample provides a very precise estimate of the true mean diameter of the rings.A deep understanding of standard error is important because it affects how confident we can be in the results of our statistical analysis, such as the width of our confidence interval.
Z-value
A Z-value, also known as a Z-score, is a statistical measurement that describes a value's position relative to the mean of a group of values. It is expressed in terms of standard deviations from the mean. The main use of the Z-value in statistics is with standardizing scores on different scales, to allow comparison.
  • Definition: It represents the number of standard deviations a data point is from the mean.
  • For confidence intervals: A specific Z-value corresponds to a specific level of confidence (e.g., 2.576 for 99% confidence).
  • Calculation: It's used with the standard error to calculate the margin of error for confidence intervals.

In constructing the confidence interval for the piston ring diameters, the Z-value of 2.576 is used, reflecting our desire for 99% confidence. This means we expect that if we were to take many samples and construct intervals the same way, 99% of those intervals would contain the true mean diameter. Understanding Z-values is crucial for interpreting confidence intervals and making informed decisions based on statistical data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Determine the \(t\) -percentile that is required to construct each of the following two-sided confidence intervals: (a) Confidence level \(=95 \%,\) degrees of freedom \(=12\) (b) Confidence level \(=95 \%,\) degrees of freedom \(=24\) (c) Confidence level \(=99 \%,\) degrees of freedom \(=13\) (d) Confidence level \(=99.9 \%,\) degrees of freedom \(=15\)

A normal population has a known mean of 50 and unknown variance. (a) A random sample of \(n=16\) is selected from this population, and the sample results are \(\bar{x}=52\) and \(s=8\). How unusual are these results? That is, what is the probability of observing a sample average as large as 52 (or larger) if the known, underlying mean is actually \(50 ?\) (b) A random sample of \(n=30\) is selected from this population, and the sample results are \(\bar{x}=52\) and \(s=8\). How unusual are these results? (c) A random sample of \(n=100\) is selected from this population, and the sample results are \(\bar{x}=52\) and \(s=8\). How unusual are these results? (d) Compare your answers to parts (a)-(c) and explain why they are the same or different.

An article in Obesity Research ["Impaired Pressure Natriuresis in Obese Youths" \((2003,\) Vol. \(11,\) pp. \(745-751)]\) described a study in which all meals were provided for 14 lean boys for three days followed by one stress (with a video-game task). The average systolic blood pressure (SBP) during the test was \(118.3 \mathrm{~mm} \mathrm{HG}\) with a standard deviation of \(9.9 \mathrm{~mm}\) HG. Construct a \(99 \%\) one-sided upper confidence interval for mean SBP.

A machine produces metal rods used in an automobile suspension system. A random sample of 15 rods is selected, and the diameter is measured. The resulting data (in millimeters) are as follows: \(\begin{array}{lllll}8.24 & 8.25 & 8.20 & 8.23 & 8.24 \\ 8.21 & 8.26 & 8.26 & 8.20 & 8.25 \\ 8.23 & 8.23 & 8.19 & 8.28 & 8.24\end{array}\) (a) Check the assumption of normality for rod diameter. (b) Calculate a \(95 \%\) two-sided confidence interval on mean rod diameter. (c) Calculate a \(95 \%\) upper confidence bound on the mean. Compare this bound with the upper bound of the two-sided confidence interval and discuss why they are different.

8-34. The solar energy consumed (in trillion BTU) in the U.S. by year from 1989 to 2004 (source: U.S. Department of Energy Web site, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu) is shown in the table below. Read down, then right for year. $$ \begin{array}{llll} \hline 55.291 & 66.458 & 70.237 & 65.454 \\ 59.718 & 68.548 & 69.787 & 64.391 \\ 62.688 & 69.857 & 68.793 & 63.62 \\ 63.886 & 70.833 & 66.388 & 63.287 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Check the assumption of normality in the population. Construct a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for the mean solar energy consumed.

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