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A number of reports in the medical literature suggest that the season of birth and the incidence of schizophrenia may be related, with a higher proportion of schizophrenics being born during the early months of the year. A study (78) following up on this hypothesis looked at 5139 persons born in England or Wales during the years 1921-1955 who were admitted to a psychiatric ward with a diagnosis of schizophrenia. Of these 5139 , 1383 were born in the first quarter of the year. Based on census figures in the two countries, the expected number of persons, out of a random 5139 , who would be born in the first quarter is \(1292.1\). Do an appropriate \(\chi^{2}\) test with \(\alpha=0.05\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The observed number of schizophrenia cases born in the first quarter of the year is significantly different from the expected value, hence we can reject the null hypothesis that seasonality has no effect on schizophrenia cases (p < 0.05).

Step by step solution

01

Calculate Observed and Expected Frequencies

The observed frequency is the number of schizophrenics born in the first quarter of the year, which is 1383. According to the problem, the expected frequency based on census figures is \(1292.1\), which we will round to \(1292\) since we cannot have a fraction of a person.
02

Calculate the Chi-Square Statistic

We can calculate the Chi-Square statistic using the formula: \(\chi^{2} = \frac{(Observed-Expected)^2}{Expected}\). Inserting our values gives us \(\chi^{2}_observed = \frac{(1383-1292)^2}{1292} \approx 6.32\)
03

Determine the Critical Chi-Square Value

To determine if the observed value is statistically significant, we have to compare it to the critical Chi-Square value. For a desired alpha of \(0.05\) and degrees-of-freedom (\(df\)) of \(1\), the critical value is \(3.841\). This value can be found in a Chi-Square distribution table.
04

Draw Conclusion

Since our calculated \(\chi^{2}\) \(6.32\) exceeds the critical value of \(3.841\), we can reject the null hypothesis.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Chi-Square Distribution
The Chi-Square distribution is a fundamental tool in statistics, particularly when it comes to analyzing categorical data. It's a type of distribution that arises when a set of independent and normally distributed variables are squared and summed up. The resulting values conform to what we know as the Chi-Square distribution.

It's especially useful when you're assessing how well your observed data fit your expected data. In the textbook example, the number of schizophrenics born in a particular quarter of the year is compared against the figure expected based on census data to determine if there's a significant deviation.

In simple terms, if the observed values significantly deviate from the expected ones according to this distribution, that can indicate that some factor other than chance is at play. This insight can lead to questioning the randomness of the trait distribution or to considering possible external influences.
Statistical Significance
Statistical significance is a term that's often misunderstood. At its core, it's a measure of whether the result of an experiment or study is likely to be due to chance or if it's indicative of a real effect or relationship. Tying this back to our Chi-Square distribution, statistical significance in the context of the chi-square test tells us if the differences between the observed and expected frequencies are meaningful or not.

For instance, when the calculated chi-square value exceeds the critical value taken from the chi-square distribution table, as it did in the exercise with a value of approximately 6.32 exceeding the critical value of 3.841, it indicates that the result is statistically significant. We can then infer, with a degree of confidence dictated by our alpha level, usually set at 0.05 (5%), that there is a statistically significant difference between what was observed and what was expected.
Hypothesis Testing
Hypothesis testing is a structured process intended to test ideas or theories about a given population using sample data. It begins with the formulation of null and alternative hypotheses. The null hypothesis (\(H_0\)) typically suggests that there is no effect or difference, while the alternative hypothesis (\(H_a\)) posits that there is an effect or a difference.

In the solution provided, the exercise demonstrated a hypothesis test using the chi-square value. The null hypothesis would suggest that there's no difference in birth quarter for schizophrenics compared to the general population. After calculations, the finding that our chi-square statistic of 6.32 exceeds the critical value signifies that we have enough evidence to reject the null hypothesis and accept the alternative, meaning that there is a significant difference in the distribution of birth quarters amongst schizophrenics in the study compared to the general expectation.

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