Chapter 9: Problem 51
A bag contains some white and some black balls, all combinations of balls being equally likely. The total number of balls in the bag is 10 . If three balls are drawn at random without replacement and all of them are found to be black, the probability that the bag contains 1 white and 9 black balls is a. \(14 / 55\) b. \(12 / 55\) c. \(2 / 11\) d. \(8 / 55\)
Short Answer
Step by step solution
Define probabilities
Use Bayes' Theorem
Calculate Probability of Event A
Calculate Probability of Drawing 3 Black Balls Given A
Calculate Total Probability of Drawing 3 Black Balls
Apply Bayes' Theorem
Verify the Answer
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Bayes' Theorem
P(A|B) = \(\frac{P(B|A) \cdot P(A)}{P(B)}\).
- P(A): Prior probability that there are 1 white and 9 black balls.
- P(B|A): Probability of drawing 3 black balls given there are 1 white and 9 black balls.
- P(B): Total probability of drawing 3 black balls, considering all ball configurations.
Binomial Coefficient
In the formula \(\binom{n}{k}\), it can be calculated as:
\[\binom{n}{k} = \frac{n!}{k!(n-k)!}\].
In this exercise, the binomial coefficient helps calculate probabilities of selecting black balls. For example, \(\binom{9}{3}\) represents the number of ways to choose 3 black balls from 9.
It simplifies finding probabilities in events with different possible selections, providing a method to assess large combinations efficiently.
Combinatorics
In our problem, combinatorics plays a big role in computing both \(P(B|A)\) and \(P(B)\). We assess various ways balls can be drawn to determine the probability of certain configurations.
Using combinatorics, we calculate:
- The number of ways to draw black balls based on different configurations in the bag.
- Possible total contexts, like configurations from completely white to completely black.
Conditional Probability
In this context, we calculate the probability of drawing 3 black balls under different assumed configurations of the bag. Thus, Conditional Probability illustrates how specific topics influence the outcome probability.
For the problem, knowing that 3 balls are black affects the probability of having 9 black balls initially:
\[P(B|A) = \frac{\binom{9}{3}}{\binom{10}{3}}\]
Conditional reasoning helps refine initial probabilities by narrowing down to more likely scenarios, especially when new evidence emerges.