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The probability that a person in the general population suffers from depression is 0.12. If five people from the general population are randomly selected, the probability that three of them will suffer from depression is the third term of the binomial expansion of

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that exactly 3 out of 5 randomly selected people from the general population suffer from depression is approximately 0.01338.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the binomial distribution

The binomial distribution model is used to calculate the probability of exactly r successes in n independent trials, where the probability of success on any given trial is p. The formula for the binomial distribution is \( P(r|n, p) = \binom{n}{r} * p^r * (1-p)^{n-r} \), where \(\binom{n}{r}\) is the number of combinations of n items taken r at a time.
02

Calculate the Binomial Coefficient

The Binomial coefficient, \(\binom{n}{r}\), represents the number of ways to choose r items from n items without regard to order. In this case, n=5 and r=3, so \(\binom{5}{3} = \frac{5!}{3!(5-3)!} = 10\). where '!' denotes factorial function
03

Calculate the Binomial Probability

Next, plug the known values into the binomial distribution formula to calculate the probability. The formula becomes: \( P(3 | 5, 0.12) = \binom{5}{3} * 0.12^3 * (1-0.12)^{5-3} = 10 * 0.001728 * 0.7744 = 0.01338 \)
04

Interpret the Result

The calculated probability, 0.01338, indicates the chance that exactly 3 out of 5 randomly chosen people from the general population will suffer from depression.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability
In simple terms, binomial probability is about the 'chance of something happening' in scenarios where there are two possible outcomes, typically labeled success and failure. When you flip a coin, landing heads or tails is a classic example of a binomial event. However, it isn't just coin flips. Any event with two outcomes, like pass/fail, yes/no, or in the case of our example, suffering from depression or not, can be analyzed with binomial probability.

Binomial probability is especially useful when you're looking at a series of events, which in statistics we call 'trials.' The conditions are that each trial must be independent (the outcome of one doesn't affect the others), and the probability of success must stay the same in each trial. In the given exercise, five people are selected, which are the five independent trials, and the probability of success (in this case, suffering from depression, which has a probability of 0.12) remains constant across trials.

For calculating the binomial probability, a specific formula is used that encompasses the binomial coefficient (more on that next), the probability of success raised to the number of successes, and the probability of failure raised to the number of failures.
Binomial Coefficient
The term 'binomial coefficient' sounds quite intimidating, but it really refers to a simple concept: The number of ways you can pick a certain number of items out of a larger set, where the order doesn't matter. If you're into puzzles, think of it as figuring out how many different combinations you can arrange your puzzle pieces in, assuming each piece is distinct.

To figure out this number, mathematicians use the notation \(\binom{n}{r}\), which reads as 'n choose r'—it's the number of ways to choose r items from a set of n. This is where the factorial function comes in handy (we'll get into factorials next). The formula essentially divides the number of total arrangements (permutations) by the number of arrangements that don't matter because they are just reordering of the same items (i.e., reordering the 'successes' and 'failures' doesn't change the scenario).

To calculate the binomial coefficient, you use the formula \(\binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!}\). For example, if you have 5 people and you want to know how many different ways 3 of them could suffer from depression, you would calculate \(\binom{5}{3}\) which would give you 10. Hence, there are 10 different ways in which any 3 out of 5 people could be chosen.
Factorial Function
A factorial is like a shortcut for multiplying a series of descending natural numbers and is represented by an exclamation point (!). For instance, the factorial of 5 (written as 5!) is just 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1. The factorial function is non-negotiable when you're working out binomial coefficients because it allows you to calculate all possible orders of arrangement for any number. \( n! \) means you multiply every number from n down to 1. So, if n equals 5, you'd multiply 5 x 4 x 3 x 2 x 1 to get 120.

Factorials are integral to understanding binomial coefficients and, by extension, binomial probability because they are part of the formula used to calculate the number of combinations. Interestingly, the factorial of 0 is defined to be 1, because there is exactly one way to arrange zero items. Remember, factorials get very large, very quickly, so calculations for larger numbers often require a calculator or software.

In the context of our exercise, you'd calculate the factorials involved in the binomial coefficient part of binomial probability formula; for example, in \(\binom{5}{3}=\frac{5!}{3!(5-3)!} \), the factorials of 5, 3, and (5-3) which is 2, would be calculated as 120, 6, and 2 respectively.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

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Explaining the Concepts Describe the difference between theoretical probability and empirical probability.

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