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Distribution of \(\mu\). Suppose the true population proportion were \(p=0.6\) and a researcher takes a simple random sample of size \(n=50\). (a) Find and interpret the standard deviation of the sample proportion \(\hat{p} .\) (b) Calculate the probability that the sample propartion will be larger than 0.65 for a random sample of size 50 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
The standard deviation is about 0.0693, and the probability that the sample proportion will be greater than 0.65 is approximately 23.58%.

Step by step solution

01

Find the Standard Deviation Formula

The standard deviation of the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) can be calculated using the formula: \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \). Here, \( p = 0.6 \) and \( n = 50 \).
02

Calculate the Standard Deviation for \( \hat{p} \)

Substitute the given values into the formula to find the standard deviation: \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.6(1-0.6)}{50}} = \sqrt{\frac{0.24}{50}} = \sqrt{0.0048} \approx 0.0693 \).
03

Interpret the Standard Deviation

The standard deviation \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \approx 0.0693 \) means that, on average, the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is expected to differ from the true population proportion \( p = 0.6 \) by about 0.0693 in a random sample of size 50.
04

Calculate the Z-Score

We need to find the probability that \( \hat{p} > 0.65 \). First, compute the z-score using the formula: \( z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} \). Substitute values: \( z = \frac{0.65 - 0.6}{0.0693} \approx 0.721 \).
05

Find Probability Using the Z-Score

Using a standard normal distribution table or calculator, find the probability corresponding to \( z = 0.721 \). The table tells us that \( P(Z < 0.721) \approx 0.7642 \). Therefore, \( P(\hat{p} > 0.65) = 1 - P(Z < 0.721) \approx 1 - 0.7642 = 0.2358 \).
06

Interpret the Probability Result

The probability that the sample proportion will be larger than 0.65 in a random sample of 50 is approximately 23.58%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Understanding Standard Deviation
The standard deviation is a crucial concept in statistics that measures the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of values. In the context of sampling distributions, the standard deviation helps us understand how much the sample proportion may vary from the true population proportion.
When dealing with the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \), the standard deviation, often denoted as \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \), is calculated using the formula: \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \). Here, \( p \) is the true population proportion, and \( n \) is the sample size.
For instance, if \( p = 0.6 \) and \( n = 50 \), the standard deviation helps gauge how the sample results might deviate due to random sampling errors.
A smaller standard deviation indicates that the sample proportions are closely clustered around the population proportion, while a larger standard deviation suggests more spread out values.
Explaining Z-Score
Z-score is a statistical measure that describes a value's relation to the mean of a group of values, expressed as standard deviations from the mean. In sampling distributions, z-scores help determine how unusual or typical a sample proportion is compared to the overall population proportion.
The formula for the z-score when considering sample proportion is \( z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} \). Here, \( \hat{p} \) is the observed sample proportion, \( p \) is the population proportion, and \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \) is the standard deviation of the sample proportion.
Once calculated, the z-score can be used to find probabilities in a standard normal distribution table. For instance, if you find a z-score of 0.721, this tells you how many standard deviations a sample proportion of 0.65 is from the mean proportion of 0.6.
This concept is particularly useful in hypothesis testing and determining statistical significance.
Defining Population Proportion
Population proportion is the fraction of the population that has a particular attribute of interest. For instance, if we're studying a population where 60% of individuals have a specific characteristic, then the population proportion \( p \) is 0.6.
Understanding the population proportion is vital in statistics as it serves as a baseline or expected value when comparing sample data to the entire population. It's a key parameter when calculating the standard deviation of the sample proportion, \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \), and when determining how sample results might differ due to random chance.
Knowing the true population proportion allows researchers to assess the reliability and accuracy of their findings when drawing conclusions from sample surveys or experiments.
Choosing the Right Sample Size
Sample size, denoted as \( n \), is the number of observations or individuals included in a sample. Selecting an appropriate sample size is essential for statistical analysis, as it can significantly affect the precision of the sample results and the validity of any inferences about the population.
A larger sample size generally leads to more reliable and accurate estimates of the population parameters, as it reduces the standard deviation of the sample proportion, \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \). This means less variability in the sample results and a stronger ability to detect patterns or differences.
Choosing the right sample size depends on several factors, including the desired confidence level, the acceptable margin of error, and the variability within the population. It's crucial to strike a balance between a sample size that is large enough to yield accurate results and one that is feasible in terms of resources and time constraints.
In summary, a well-chosen sample size leads to more credible statistical conclusions, enhancing the overall quality of research.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

CFLs. A manufacturer of compact fluorescent light bulbs advertises that the distribution of the lifespans of these light bulbs is nearly normal with a mean of 9,000 hours and a standard deviation of 1.000 hours. (a) What is the probability that a randomly chosen light bulb lasts more than 10.500 hours? (b) Describe the distribution of the mean lifespan of 15 light bulbs. (c) What is the probability that the mean lifespan of 15 randomly chosen light bulbs is more than 10.500 hours? (d) Sketch the two distributions (population and sampling) on the same scale. (e) Could you estimate the probabilities from parts (a) and (c) if the lifespans of light bulbs had a skewed distribution?

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Housing prices, Part I. ' A A housing survey was conducted to determine the price of a typical home in Topanga, CA. The mean price of a house was roughly \(\$ 1.3\) million with a standard deviation of \(\$ 300,000\). There were no houses listed below \(\$ 600.000\) but a few houses above \(\$ 3\) million. (a) Is the distribution of housing prices in Topanga symmetric, right skewed, or left skewed? Hint: Sketch the distribution. (b) Would you expect most houses in Topanga to cost more or less than \(\$ 1.3\) million? (c) Can we estimate the probability that a randomly chosen house in Topanga costs more than \(\$ 1.4\) million using the normal distribution? (d) What is the probability that the mean of 60 randomly chosen houses in Topanga is more than \(\$ 1.4\) million? (e) How would doubling the sample size affect the standard deviation of the mean?

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