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Distribution of \(\dot{p}\) : 1\. Suppose the true population proportion were \(p=0.5\) and a researcher takes a simple random sample of size \(n=50\). (a) Find and interpret the standard deviation of the sample proportion \(\dot{p}\). (b) Calculate the probability that the sample proportion will be larger than 0.55 for a random sample of size 50 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
The standard deviation is approximately 0.0707, and the probability \( P(\hat{p} > 0.55) \approx 0.2398 \) or 23.98%.

Step by step solution

01

Standard Deviation Formula

To find the standard deviation of the sample proportion, we use the formula for the standard deviation of a sampling distribution of a proportion, which is: \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{ \frac{p(1-p)}{n} } \).
02

Calculate \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \) with Given Values

Substitute the given values into the formula: \( p = 0.5 \) and \( n = 50 \).\[ \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{ \frac{0.5 \times (1 - 0.5)}{50} } = \sqrt{ \frac{0.5 \times 0.5}{50} } = \sqrt{ \frac{0.25}{50} } = \sqrt{0.005} \approx 0.0707 \].
03

Interpret the Standard Deviation

The standard deviation \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \approx 0.0707 \) indicates the expected variability in the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) from the true population proportion \( p = 0.5 \) across different samples of size 50.
04

Find the Z-Score for \( \hat{p} = 0.55 \)

To find the probability that the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is larger than 0.55, calculate the z-score using the formula:\[ z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} \].Substituting the values: \( \hat{p} = 0.55 \), \( p = 0.5 \), and \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} \approx 0.0707 \), we get:\[ z = \frac{0.55 - 0.5}{0.0707} \approx \frac{0.05}{0.0707} \approx 0.707 \].
05

Determine the Probability from the Z-Score

Using a standard normal distribution table, or a calculator with statistical functions, find the probability that the z-score is greater than 0.707. This corresponds to \( P(Z > 0.707) = 1 - P(Z \leq 0.707) \). From the z-table, \( P(Z \leq 0.707) \approx 0.7602 \), so \( P(Z > 0.707) \approx 1 - 0.7602 = 0.2398 \).
06

Final Answer

The probability that the sample proportion is larger than 0.55 is approximately 0.2398, meaning there is about a 23.98% chance of observing such a sample proportion.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Sample Proportion
When you're working with surveys or experiments, often your goal is to understand a characteristic of a population. However, examining an entire population is usually impractical, if not impossible. This is where the concept of the **sample proportion** comes into play. The sample proportion, denoted as \( \hat{p} \), is a ratio that gives you an estimate of the population proportion based on the sample collected.

For example, in the given exercise, the researcher collects a sample of 50, and the sample proportion may vary due to random sampling. The sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) tells us what fraction of the individuals in the sample exhibit the characteristic of interest, calculated as \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \), where \( x \) is the number of successes observed in the sample, and \( n \) is the sample size.
  • In practice, the value of \( \hat{p} \) helps researchers infer what they might expect to see in the entire population.
  • It is the foundational basis for constructing confidence intervals and conducting hypothesis tests concerning population proportions.
Standard Deviation
The **standard deviation** of a sampling distribution of a sample proportion is key to understanding the spread or variability in the sample proportions across different samples of the same size. It's a measure that quantifies how much the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) is expected to deviate from the true population proportion \( p \).

For the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \), the standard deviation is calculated using the formula \( \sigma_{\hat{p}} = \sqrt{\frac{p(1-p)}{n}} \). In our exercise, with a population proportion \( p = 0.5 \) and a sample size \( n = 50 \), the standard deviation was found to be approximately 0.0707.
  • This means if you were to take many samples of 50 individuals from the same population, the sample proportions would typically vary by about 0.0707 from the true population proportion.
  • This concept is critical because a smaller standard deviation indicates that the sample proportion is a more reliable estimate of the population proportion.
Z-Score
The **z-score** is a statistical measure used to describe the position of a raw score in terms of its distance from the mean, measured in standard deviations. It's particularly useful for understanding probabilities related to sample proportions.

To find the likelihood that the sample proportion is greater than a certain value, the z-score is calculated using the formula: \( z = \frac{\hat{p} - p}{\sigma_{\hat{p}}} \). In the exercise, we calculated the z-score when the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) was 0.55, which resulted in a z-score of approximately 0.707.
  • The z-score tells us how many standard deviations \( \hat{p} \) is from the mean \( p \).
  • Understanding this helps in assessing whether a sample proportion is significantly different from the population proportion or if it could occur by random chance in a normal distribution.
Population Proportion
The **population proportion** is the true proportion of the entire population that exhibits a particular trait or characteristic. It is often denoted by \( p \), and unlike the sample proportion, it remains constant across different samples.

In research, determining or estimating this parameter is crucial for making inferences about the population as a whole. For the exercise, it is given that the population proportion \( p \) is 0.5. This value indicates that in reality, half of the population displays the characteristic of interest.
  • While the population proportion provides the actual or theoretical specification for the population, sample statistics like the sample proportion offer estimates needed for practical analysis.
  • Understanding the distinction between these two types of proportions is essential for accurate data interpretation and inference.

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