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A coin that when flipped comes up heads with probability p is flipped until either heads or tails has occurred twice. Find the expected number of flips

Short Answer

Expert verified

The expected number of flipsE(X)is -2p2+p-2.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information

Given in the question that the coin was flipped comes up heads with probability pis flipped until either heads or tails has occurred twice.

02

Find the Value of p2

Consider Xis a number of tosses of the coin.

For X=0and p0=0as two heads or two tails are not possible.

For X=1and p1=0as two heads or two tails are not possible.

For X=2and p2=0as two heads or two tails are possible.

Therefore,

p2=HHor TT

=pp+(1-p)(1-p)

We get,

=p2+(1-p)2

03

Find the Value of p3

Since if head occurs then the probability is potherwise if tail occurs then the probability is (1-p)

For the X=3,probability of two heads or two tails is surely one.

But this has not occurred with X=2

It means that if X=1does not occur withX=3,

Outcome surely occurs

Thus, we find out changes outcome does not happen withX=2

That is,

p3=1-p2

=1-p2-(1-p)2

04

Distribution Table

The Distribution Table is shown as below:

Xipi00102p2+(1-p)231-p2-(1-p)2

05

Computation of E(X)

Find the value

E(X)=xp(x)

=(00)+(10)+2p2+(1-p)2+31-p2-(1-p)2

=0+0+2p2+2(1-p)2+3-3p2-3(1-p)2

Simplifying the equation

=-p2-(1-p)2+3

=-p2-1-p2+2p+3

We get,

=-2p2+p-2.

06

Final Answer

The expected number of flips E(X)is-2p2+p-2.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In some military courts, 9judges are appointed. However, both the prosecution and the defense attorneys are entitled to a peremptory challenge of any judge, in which case that judge is removed from the case and is not replaced. A defendant is declared guilty if the majority of judges cast votes of guilty, and he or she is declared innocent otherwise. Suppose that when the defendant is, in fact, guilty, each judge will (independently) vote guilty with probability .7,whereas when the defendant is, in fact, innocent, this probability drops to .3.

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