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Suppose that a fair die is rolled 100times. Let Xibe the value obtained on the ith roll. Compute an approximation forP1100Xia1001<a<6.

Short Answer

Expert verified

P1100Xia100100ln(a)-100l10l

where l=ElnXiandl2=VarlnXi.

Step by step solution

01

Given Information.

a fair die is rolled 100times. Xibe the value obtained on the,ith roll.

02

Explanation.

Assume that a fair die is rolled100times and letXirepresent the value obtained on the ith roll. Then, the random variables X1,X2,,X100are independent identically distributed, with mean

=i=EXi=16(1+2+3+4+5+6)=72

and variance

2=i2=VarXi=1612+22+32+42+52+62-2=3512

Therefore, the random variables lnX1,lnX2,,lnX100are independent identically distributed, with mean

l=ElnXi=16(ln(1)+ln(2)+ln(3)+ln(4)+ln(5)+ln(6))1.1

and variance

localid="1649860717881" l2=VarlnXi=16ln(1)2+ln(2)2+ln(3)2+ln(4)2+ln(5)2+ln(6)2-l20.37

Further, let1<a<6. We have:

P1100Xia100=Pln1100Xilna100=P1100lnXi100ln(a)=P1100lnXi-100ll100100ln(a)-100ll100

The central limit theorem

100ln(a)-100l10l

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If E[X]=75E[Y]=75Var(X)=10

Var(Y)=12Cov(X,Y)=-3

give an upper bound to

(a) P{|X-Y|>15};

(b) P{X>Y+15};

(c)P{Y>X+15};

Let X1,X2,be a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables with distributionF, having a finite mean and variance. Whereas the central limit theorem states that the distribution ofi=1nXiapproaches a normal distribution as ngoes to infinity, it gives us no information about how largenneed to be before the normal becomes a good approximation. Whereas in most applications, the approximation yields good results whenevern20, and oftentimes for much smaller values ofn, how large a value of nis needed depends on the distribution ofXi. Give an example of distribution Fsuch that the distributioni=1100Xiis not close to a normal distribution.

Hint: Think Poisson.

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