Chapter 5: Problem 16
The annual rainfall (in inches) in a certain region is normally distributed with \(\mu=40\) and \(\sigma=4 .\) What is the probability that starting with this year, it will take more than 10 years before a year occurs having a rainfall of more than 50 inches? What assumptions are you making?
Short Answer
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The probability that it takes more than 10 years before a year occurs having a rainfall of more than 50 inches, given the annual rainfall is normally distributed with \(\mu = 40\) and \(\sigma = 4\), is approximately 93.86%. We assume that the annual rainfall follows a normal distribution and that the rainfall in each year is independent of the rainfall in previous years.
Step by step solution
01
Recall the Z-score formula
The Z-score, also known as the standard score, is a measure that describes the number of standard deviations an element is from the mean of a distribution. In this case, we are given that the annual rainfall follows a normal distribution with a mean \(\mu = 40\) and a standard deviation \(\sigma = 4\). We can calculate the Z-score of a value x using the following formula:
\(Z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\)
02
Find the Z-score corresponding to 50 inches of rainfall
We want to find the probability that it takes more than 10 years to have a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall. To do this, we need to find the Z-score corresponding to 50 inches of rainfall. We can use the formula from Step 1:
\(Z = \frac{50 - 40}{4} = 2.5\)
03
Find the probability of having a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall
Now, we need to find the probability that the annual rainfall is more than 50 inches in a given year. Since the Z-score we calculated in Step 2 is 2.5, we can look that up in a Z-table or use standard normal cumulative distribution function to find the probability.
Using the Z-table or the standard normal cumulative distribution function, we find that \(P(Z>2.5) \approx 0.0062\). This means there is a 0.62% chance that the annual rainfall will be more than 50 inches in a given year.
04
Find the probability of not having a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall
Now, we want to find the probability that it takes more than 10 years for a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall to occur. First, we find the probability of not having a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall in a given year. Since there is a 0.62% chance that the annual rainfall will be more than 50 inches, the probability of not having a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall is:
\(1 - 0.0062 = 0.9938\)
05
Find the probability of not having a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall for 10 consecutive years
We now have the probability of not having a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall in a given year (0.9938). To find the probability of this happening for 10 consecutive years, we simply multiply the probabilities together:
\(0.9938^{10} \approx 0.9386\)
So, there is approximately a 93.86% chance that it takes more than 10 years for a year with more than 50 inches of rainfall to occur.
As for the assumptions being made in this problem, we assume that the annual rainfall follows a normal distribution and that the rainfall in each year is independent of the rainfall in previous years.
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Normal distribution
The normal distribution, often called the Gaussian distribution, is a fundamental concept in the field of probability and statistics. It is known for its bell-shaped curve and is characterized by its mean (\(\mu\)) and standard deviation (\(\sigma\)). In a normal distribution, most data points cluster around the mean, resulting in the curve's peak at the center.
Key features of the normal distribution include:
Key features of the normal distribution include:
- Symmetry around the mean
- A mean that represents the location of the center of the distribution
- A standard deviation that indicates the spread or width of the distribution
- The area under the curve represents probabilities
Z-score
The Z-score is a standardized way of expressing how far away a specific data point is from the mean of a distribution, measured in terms of standard deviations.
We calculate the Z-score using the formula:\[Z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\]where \(x\) is the value of interest, \(\mu\) is the mean, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
It helps us understand how unusual or typical a data point is within a distribution. A Z-score:
We calculate the Z-score using the formula:\[Z = \frac{x - \mu}{\sigma}\]where \(x\) is the value of interest, \(\mu\) is the mean, and \(\sigma\) is the standard deviation.
It helps us understand how unusual or typical a data point is within a distribution. A Z-score:
- Greater than 0 indicates the data point is above the mean.
- Less than 0 indicates it is below the mean.
- Of 0 means it is exactly at the mean.
Standard deviation
The standard deviation is a measure that shows how much individual data points deviate from the mean of a dataset.
A smaller standard deviation indicates that the data points are closely clustered around the mean, while a larger standard deviation suggests that the data points are more spread out.
This metric is crucial because it provides insight into the variability or dispersion in a set of data:
A smaller standard deviation indicates that the data points are closely clustered around the mean, while a larger standard deviation suggests that the data points are more spread out.
This metric is crucial because it provides insight into the variability or dispersion in a set of data:
- It is represented by the symbol \(\sigma\).
- Calculating standard deviation involves squaring the difference between each data point and the mean, taking the average of those squared differences, and then taking the square root.
- It is commonly used to interpret the spread around the mean in a dataset.
- In the context of the normal distribution, approximately 68% of data lies within one standard deviation from the mean, 95% within two, and 99.7% within three standard deviations.
Cumulative distribution function
The cumulative distribution function, or CDF, is a tool used to determine the probability that a random variable takes on a value less than or equal to a specific amount. It accumulates the probabilities of a random variable, providing a complete description of its distribution.
In a normal distribution, the CDF can be used to quickly find probabilities for ranges of values.
The function is defined for a random variable \(X\) as:\[F(x) = P(X \leq x)\]where \(P(X \leq x)\) is the probability that the variable is less than or equal to \(x\).
Key points about CDFs include:
In a normal distribution, the CDF can be used to quickly find probabilities for ranges of values.
The function is defined for a random variable \(X\) as:\[F(x) = P(X \leq x)\]where \(P(X \leq x)\) is the probability that the variable is less than or equal to \(x\).
Key points about CDFs include:
- They start at 0 and increase to 1 as \(x\) increases.
- They are used to find the probability that a value falls within a particular range.
- The CDF of a normal distribution helps determine how extreme or common a value is relative to the rest of the dataset.