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If two fair dice are rolled, what is the conditional probability that the first one lands on 6 given that the sum of the dice is \(i ?\) Compute for all values of \(i\) between 2 and 12 .

Short Answer

Expert verified
The conditional probabilities for the first dice landing on 6 given the sum of the dice is \(i\) are: - For \(i \in \{2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}\), \(P(A | i) = 0\) - \(P(A | 7) = \frac{1}{6}\) - \(P(A | 8) = \frac{1}{5}\) - \(P(A | 9) = \frac{1}{4}\) - \(P(A | 10) = \frac{1}{3}\) - \(P(A | 11) = \frac{1}{2}\) - \(P(A | 12) = 1\)

Step by step solution

01

Identify Possible Outcomes

Before we dive into calculations, it's helpful to understand the possible outcomes in this problem. The two dice will result in 36 possible outcomes, as each die has six faces and 6 * 6 = 36.
02

Find P(A) and P(B)

First, we'll find the probability of event A, which is the first dice landing on 6. Since it's a fair dice, the probability is 1/6. Now we need to find the probability of event B, which is getting a total of \(i\). The possible sums of the two dice are between 2 and 12. The probability of each sum is given by the number of ways to achieve that sum divided by the total possible outcomes, which is 36.
03

Calculate P(A ∩ B)

Now we need to find the probability of A and B occurring together - that is, the first dice landing on 6 and the total sum being \(i\). This can only happen if the second dice has a value equal to \(i-6\). The outcomes where this is true will only be for \(i \in \{7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12\}\), since for all other values of \(i\), it is impossible for dice 1 to have a value of 6 and dice 2 to have a value of \(i-6\) (as dice can only have values between 1 and 6). So, we need to calculate the probability for those values only.
04

Calculate Conditional Probability

Now we have all the necessary information to calculate the conditional probability \(P(A|B)\). We can use the formula \(P(A|B) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}\) for the values of \(i\) where it's possible to obtain a sum of \(i\) with the first dice being 6. Let's compute the conditional probability for all values of \(i\): \(P(A | i) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(B)}\) For \(i \in \{2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}\), \(P(A | i) = 0\), since it is impossible to have the first dice land on 6 and have a sum of \(i\) for these values. For \(i \in \{7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12\}\), calculate \(P(A | i)\) as follows: \(P(A | 7) = \frac{\frac{1}{36}}{\frac{6}{36}} = \frac{1}{6}\) \(P(A | 8) = \frac{\frac{1}{36}}{\frac{5}{36}} = \frac{1}{5}\) \(P(A | 9) = \frac{\frac{1}{36}}{\frac{4}{36}} = \frac{1}{4}\) \(P(A | 10) = \frac{\frac{1}{36}}{\frac{3}{36}} = \frac{1}{3}\) \(P(A | 11) = \frac{\frac{1}{36}}{\frac{2}{36}} = \frac{1}{2}\) \(P(A | 12) = \frac{\frac{1}{36}}{\frac{1}{36}} = 1\) Finally, we have the following conditional probabilities for each value of \(i\): - For \(i \in \{2, 3, 4, 5, 6\}\), \(P(A | i) = 0\) - \(P(A | 7) = \frac{1}{6}\) - \(P(A | 8) = \frac{1}{5}\) - \(P(A | 9) = \frac{1}{4}\) - \(P(A | 10) = \frac{1}{3}\) - \(P(A | 11) = \frac{1}{2}\) - \(P(A | 12) = 1\)

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Theory
Probability theory is the branch of mathematics concerned with analysis of random phenomena. The central objects of probability theory are random variables, stochastic processes, and events: mathematical abstractions of non-deterministic events or measured quantities that may either happen or not happen.

When we roll a pair of dice, we're creating a simple random experiment with a set of possible outcomes. Probability theory helps us quantify the likelihood of each outcome. Even though we cannot predict the result of a single roll with certainty, probability theory provides a framework for forecasting the outcomes of many rolls statistically.

The concept of conditional probability, which is central to our exercise, falls under this realm. It is a measure of the probability of an event occurring, given that another event has already occurred. Understanding the principles of probability theory is essential for tackling problems involving uncertainty, such as the dice problem presented in our exercise.
Dice Probability
Dice games are a classic example of probability in action. With a fair six-sided die, each face has an equal chance of landing face up; hence, the probability of any one number appearing is 1 in 6, or roughly 16.67%. When two dice are rolled simultaneously, the number of possible outcomes is 36, as each die can land on any of the six faces independently of the other.

In our given problem, the aim is to find out the conditional probability of the first die showing a 6, provided the sum of the two dice is a particular value, i. Since dice are independent objects, the result of one does not affect the other. However, the condition imposed by the sum of the two dice introduces dependency, creating a scenario somewhat different from a simple dice roll.
Probability Formulas
The world of probability is governed by key formulas that provide the means to calculate likelihoods of various events. For example, the basic probability of an event A occurring is given by the formula: \( P(A) = \frac{{\text{{Number of favorable outcomes}}}}{{\text{{Total number of possible outcomes}}}} \).

In the context of conditional probability, such as the one stated in our dice problem, we use the following formula: \( P(A|B) = \frac{{P(A \cap B)}}{{P(B)}} \). This formula tells us the probability of event A occurring given that B has already occurred.

To employ these formulas, one must first identify the appropriate events and their probabilities. For our exercise, computing \( P(A \cap B) \) for different values of i, and then applying the formula, provides the conditional probabilities of the first die landing on 6 for those scenarios.
Dependent Events
In probability, events can be independent or dependent. Two events are independent if the occurrence of one does not affect the other. However, if the occurrence of one event does influence the likelihood of the other occurring, such events are referred to as dependent.

Our exercise provides a clear illustration of dependent events. While rolling two dice is generally considered to involve independent events, the condition specified (that the sum of the dice is equal to i) creates a dependency between them. For instance, knowing that the sum of the two dice is 7 informs us that if one die shows a 6, the other must show a 1; therefore, the events are no longer independent.

We calculate the conditional probability for dependent events differently than we do for independent events, as the outcome of the first influences the probability of the second. By understanding how to deal with dependent events when faced with conditions, students can solve more complex probability problems with confidence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

On rainy days, Joe is late to work with probability \(.3 ;\) on nonrainy days, he is late with probability.1. With probability.7, it will rain tomorrow. (a) Find the probability that Joe is early tomorrow. (b) Given that Joe was early, what is the conditional probability that it rained?

Urn \(A\) has 5 white and 7 black balls. Urn \(B\) has 3 white and 12 black balls. We flip a fair coin. If the outcome is heads, then a ball from urn \(A\) is selected, whereas if the outcome is tails, then a ball from urn \(B\) is selected. Suppose that a white ball is selected. What is the probability that the coin landed tails?

An urn contains 6 white and 9 black balls. If 4 balls are to be randomly selected without replacement, what is the probability that the first 2 selected are white and the last 2 black?

What is the probability that at least one of a pair of fair dice lands on \(6,\) given that the sum of the dice is \(i\) \(i=2,3, \ldots, 12 ?\)

\(A\) and \(B\) are involved in a duel. The rules of the duel are that they are to pick up their guns and shoot at each other simultaneously. If one or both are hit, then the duel is over. If both shots miss, then they repeat the process. Suppose that the results of the shots are independent and that each shot of \(A\) will hit \(B\) with probability \(p_{A},\) and each shot of \(B\) will hit \(A\) with probability \(p_{B}\). What is (a) the probability that \(A\) is not hit? (b) the probability that both duelists are hit? (c) the probability that the duel ends after the \(n\) th round of shots? (d) the conditional probability that the duel ends after the \(n\) th round of shots given that \(A\) is not hit? (e) the conditional probability that the duel ends after the nth round of shots given that both duelists are hit?

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