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In the summer of 1936 a polling service telephoned 10,000 United States voters and asked how they planned to vote in the coming presidential election. The survey sample included a variety of respondents - rural and urban, male and female, from every state. The poll predicted that Alfred Landon would soundly defeat Franklin Roosevelt. Nevertheless, Roosevelt won in a landslide. Which one of the following, if true, best explains why the poll's prediction was inaccurate? (A) The interviewers did not reveal their own political affiliation to the respondents. (B) Only people who would be qualified to vote by election time were interviewed, so the survey sample was not representative of the overall United States population. (C) The survey sample was representative only of people who could afford telephones at a time when phone ownership was less common than it is today. (D) No effort was made to determine the respondents' political affiliations. (E) Because the poll asked only for respondents' candidate preference, it collected no information concerning their reasons for favoring Landon or Roosevelt.

Step by step solution

01

Analyze the Polling Method

The polling service used a telephone survey of 10,000 voters in 1936. At this time, not all households had telephones, meaning that the sample might not have been representative of the entire voting population.

02

Consider Response Options

Evaluate the potential reasons provided in the options that could explain the inaccuracy: - (A) Interviewers' political affiliation likely did not affect respondents' answers. - (B) Interviewing only qualified voters seems relevant, but it does not directly explain the sample's unrepresentativeness. - (C) The sample possibly only included individuals who could afford telephones, excluding a large part of the population without phones. - (D) Not determining political affiliations provides limited information on possible biases. - (E) Lack of reasoning behind preferences doesn't affect representativeness directly.

03

Identify the Best Explanation

Option (C) is the best explanation because it addresses the key issue of sample representativeness. In 1936, telephone ownership was not widespread; therefore, the sample might have disproportionately represented wealthier individuals who could afford telephones, missing lower-income voters who favored Roosevelt.

04

Conclude the Reason for Inaccuracy

The most likely reason the poll's prediction was incorrect is that the sample was not representative of the overall population due to the selection bias of only including those who had telephones.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Telephone Survey

Telephone surveys were a revolutionary means of polling back in 1936 due to their ability to quickly reach a large number of people. However, they did have limitations. In 1936, the United States was still facing the aftermath of the Great Depression, and not everyone had access to a telephone. This meant that telephone surveys might not account for opinions from every demographic.

The key points about telephone surveys include:

• They can reach many respondents quickly, saving time and resources compared to other methods.
• They require people to have access to a telephone, which was a significant limitation in 1936.
• They potentially exclude segments of the population without phones, often representing differing economic backgrounds.

Understanding these aspects is crucial, as they can directly affect the accuracy and representativeness of the survey results.

Sample Representativeness

Sample representativeness is crucial in ensuring that survey results reflect the wider population. In the 1936 presidential election, the polling service aimed to predict election results by conducting a telephone survey.

Unfortunately, their approach led to a sample that was not fully representative of the United States electorate. At a time when not every household had a telephone, likely only wealthier individuals with phone access were surveyed.

A representative sample should:

• Accurately reflect the demographics of the overall population it aims to predict or study.
• Include diverse perspectives—across socioeconomic backgrounds, geographic locations, and ethnicities.
• Be large enough to capture the full range of opinions and trends within a population.

The lack of representativeness in this particular polling was one of the critical reasons for the inaccurate prediction.

1936 Presidential Election

The 1936 Presidential Election saw Franklin D. Roosevelt running for reelection against Alfred Landon. Roosevelt, the incumbent President, was a key figure during the Great Depression, with policies centered around economic recovery and relief.

Despite the prediction by the telephone survey, Roosevelt won the election by an overwhelming margin. This was a clear example of how polling methods and sample selection contribute to obtaining inaccurate predictions. The survey predicted a victory for Landon, primarily due to selection bias in their method.

Considerations of the 1936 election include:

• Roosevelt's "New Deal" policies appealed to many, particularly those in lower-income brackets, but these individuals might not have been represented in the telephone poll.
• The historical and social context of the time was crucial, as individuals without telephones might have had very different political inclinations and priorities.

The wrong prediction underscored the importance of considering how social and economic factors influence voter behavior and polling accuracy.

Selection Bias

Selection bias occurs when the sample chosen for a study is not representative, leading to skewed results. In the 1936 telephone survey, selection bias was a central issue due to only choosing respondents with access to a telephone.

During this era, phones were not common among lower-income households, meaning the survey likely missed the opinions of a large segment of Roosevelt supporters.

Key elements of selection bias include:

• The exclusion of parts of the population that do not have the means to participate in the poll—such as lack of telephone ownership in 1936.
• The overrepresentation of more affluent individuals who might have different voting patterns and preferences than the general population.
• The potential oversight of inherent differences in political, economic, or social beliefs among those not included in the sample.

Understanding and addressing selection bias is vital in designing any survey to ensure that it accurately reflects the entire population's views.