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Chapter 5: Problem 21

The initial causes of serious accidents at nuclear power plants have not so far been flaws in the advanced-technology portion of the plants. Rather, the initial causes have been attributed to human error, as when a worker at the Browns Mills reactor in the United States dropped a candle and started a fire, or to flaws in the plumbing, exemplified in a recent incident in Japan. Such everyday events cannot be thought unlikely to occur over the long run. Which one of the following is most strongly supported by the statements above? (A) Now that nuclear power generation has become a part of everyday life, an ever-increasing yearly incidence of serious accidents at the plants can be expected. (B) If nuclear power plants continue in operation, a serious accident at such a plant is not improbable. (C) The likelihood of human error at the operating consoles of nuclear power generators cannot be lessened by thoughtful design of dials, switches, and displays. (D) The design of nuclear power plants attempts to compensate for possible failures of the materials used in their construction. (E) No serious accident will be caused in the future by some flaw in the advanced-technology portion of a nuclear power plant.

Short Answer

Expert verified
Option (B) is most supported: a serious accident is not improbable.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Information

The premise is that serious accidents at nuclear power plants have primarily been caused by human error or plumbing issues and not by the advanced technology itself. This suggests that regardless of technological advances, the potential for accidents remains due to more mundane factors.
02

Identify the Core Implication

The core implication is that while technology might be sophisticated, accidents are still possible due to human errors and less advanced system failures. Therefore, over time, accidents are not unlikely to occur.
03

Evaluate Each Option

Examine each answer choice to see if it aligns with the implication: (A) suggests accidents will increase, which isn't supported. (B) implies a serious accident is possible, which aligns with the premise. (C) states human error can't be reduced through design, which isn't discussed. (D) talks about compensating for material failures, not the discussed issue. (E) states no future accident will be tech-related, which isn't implied.
04

Select the Best-Supported Option

The best-supported option is (B) because it matches the conclusion that serious accidents are not improbable due to causes unrelated to technology.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Logical Reasoning
Logical reasoning involves the process of using structured thinking to come to conclusions based on given ideas or facts. In this context, it means examining information from the problem, identifying key points, and drawing sensible conclusions. When preparing for the LSAT, enhancing your skills in logical reasoning can significantly boost your performance.

This involves:
  • Breaking down complex information into manageable parts.
  • Analyzing relationships between different statements.
  • Making inferences based on the data provided.
Understanding logical reasoning requires practice in recognizing how different elements within a statement support one another, allowing you to predict outcomes and identify the most logical conclusions.
Cause and Effect
Understanding cause and effect is crucial, especially when determining the reasons behind specific outcomes, like accidents in nuclear plants. In this exercise, identifying causes such as human error and mechanical flaws helps to outline why certain events might occur.

To strengthen this skill, consider:
  • Identifying the initiating event, or the 'cause,' which leads to certain results.
  • Recognizing that causes can often be comprised of everyday mishaps rather than complex issues.
  • Determining how multifaceted interactions can lead to certain effects.
Grasping the fundamentals of cause and effect allows you to anticipate issues before they develop into larger problems, making this an essential skill for both test preparation and practical scenarios.
Premise and Conclusion Analysis
Premise and conclusion analysis is a technique used to distinguish between foundational claims and the judgments drawn from them. This is valuable in many LSAT-type questions, where separating these elements clarifies the argument.

The steps to analyze include:
  • Identifying the premise: The base facts or statements presented within the question.
  • Recognizing the conclusion that stems logically from these premises.
  • Assessing whether the conclusion is legitimate based on the premises.
A successful analysis will help you see whether the conclusion directly follows the given information or if there is an external assumption involved. In this exercise, understanding that human and plumbing errors lead to potential accidents, despite technological savvy, is key.
Answer Choice Evaluation
This involves closely assessing the potential correct options against the information given. Each choice must be carefully reviewed to see how well it aligns with the stated premises and conclusions.

When evaluating answer choices, consider:
  • Matching choices with the direct implication of the premise and conclusion.
  • Eliminating choices that introduce unsupported information.
  • Identifying subtleties within the language that may hint at incorrect assumptions.
For example, in this exercise, option (B) aligns with the conclusion of human and mechanical failings leading to potential accidents, unlike other options that drift from the provided logic. This type of evaluation helps build the skill of objectively analyzing and choosing the most supported answer.

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