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Ms. Fogg is planning an around-the-world trip on which she plans to spend \(\$ 10,000\). The utility from the trip is a function of how much she actually spends on it ( \(Y\) ), given by \\[ U(Y)=\ln Y \\] a. If there is a 25 percent probability that Ms. Fogg will lose \(\$ 1,000\) of her cash on the trip, what is the trip's expected utility? b. Suppose that Ms. Fogg can buy insurance against losing the \(\$ 1,000\) (say, by purchasing traveler's checks) at an "actuarially fair" premium of \(\$ 250 .\) Show that her expected utility is higher if she purchases this insurance than if she faces the chance of losing the \(\$ 1,000\) without insurance. c. What is the maximum amount that Ms. Fogg would be willing to pay to insure her \(\$ 1,000 ?\)

Short Answer

Expert verified
Answer: The expected utility of Ms. Fogg's trip without insurance is approximately 9.02. With an actuarially fair insurance premium of $250, her expected utility increases to approximately 9.08. Ms. Fogg would be willing to pay a maximum amount of approximately $317 to insure her $1,000.

Step by step solution

01

Define Spending Scenarios

There are two possible scenarios for Ms. Fogg's spending on this trip: 1. She loses $1,000 with a probability of 25%; 2. She does not lose any money with a probability of 75%. Thus, her total spending is: - Case 1: \(Y_1 = 10,000 - 1,000 = 9,000\) - Case 2: \(Y_2 = 10,000\).
02

Calculate the Utility for Each Scenario

Utilizing the given utility function, \(U(Y) = ln(Y)\), we find: - Utility of Scenario 1: \(U(Y_1) = \ln(9,000)\) - Utility of Scenario 2: \(U(Y_2) = \ln(10,000)\)
03

Calculate Expected Utility

Expected Utility = \(0.25 \times U(Y_1) + 0.75 \times U(Y_2)\) \(E[U] = 0.25 \times \ln(9,000) + 0.75 \times \ln(10,000)\) \(E[U] ≈ 9.02\) a. The trip's expected utility without insurance is approximately 9.02. b. Expected Utility with Insurance
04

Calculate Spending with Insurance Premium

Ms. Fogg spends \( \$250\) on insurance, which leaves her with a guaranteed spending of \(Y = 10,000 - 250 = 9,750\).
05

Calculate the Utility with Insurance

Using the utility function, \(U(Y) = ln(Y)\), we find: - Utility of Scenario with Insurance: \(U(Y_{insured}) = \ln(9,750)\) Since insurance eliminates the possibility of losing $1,000, and an actuarially fair premium is paid, by definition, the expected utility with insurance should be higher. \(U(Y_{insured}) ≈ 9.08\) b. Ms. Fogg's expected utility with insurance is approximately 9.08, which is higher than the expected utility without insurance. c. Maximum Amount for Insurance
06

Define the Utility Equality

Ms. Fogg would be willing to pay an amount 'x' for insurance if the utility with insurance is equal to the expected utility without insurance. \(U(Y - x) = E[U]\)
07

Solve for x

\(\ln(10,000 - x) = E[U] ≈ 9.02\) To solve for x, we take the exponent of both sides: \(10,000 - x = e^{9.02}\) Now, we solve for x: \(x = 10,000 - e^{9.02}\) \(x ≈ \$317\) c. Ms. Fogg would be willing to pay a maximum amount of approximately \(317 to insure her \)1,000.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Risk Aversion
Risk aversion is a concept that describes a preference for certainty over uncertainty when it comes to potential losses or gains. Individuals who are risk averse prefer to avoid taking risks if possible, especially when it involves the possibility of losing resources like money.
In the context of Ms. Fogg’s travel plans, her potential to lose $1,000 poses a risk. A risk-averse individual like Ms. Fogg would naturally want to mitigate this potential loss. By considering the purchase of traveler's checks or insurance, she demonstrates a behavior consistent with risk aversion. This way, she can ensure that her travel budget remains mostly untouched, despite the potential loss.

Understanding risk aversion is crucial as it influences decision-making. Individuals will assess scenarios based on their comfort with potential losses, often opting for strategies that secure their well-being, even if it means incurring a small loss (such as the insurance premium).
Utility Function
A utility function is a mathematical representation that allows individuals to rank their preferences based on the satisfaction or utility they derive from consuming goods and services. In Ms. Fogg’s case, her utility function is given by the natural logarithm of her spending, denoted as \( U(Y) = \ln Y \).
Utility functions help capture the level of satisfaction one gets from spending their money, in this case, on an around-the-world trip. The logarithmic function reflects diminishing marginal utility, meaning each additional dollar spent has less impact on satisfaction than the previous one. This relationship is typical in real-world scenarios, where initially, spending more provides significant happiness, but over time, the added satisfaction decreases.

For Ms. Fogg, the utility function is essential in determining how much utility she derives under various scenarios, such as losing money or not. It helps calculate her expected utility and how different choices, like buying insurance, affect her overall satisfaction from the trip.
Actuarially Fair Insurance
Actuarially fair insurance refers to a premium that exactly equals the expected value of a potential loss. It is a theoretically ideal insurance scenario where the cost of the premium reflects the probability of the risk occurring without any additional charges for profit by the insurer.
In Ms. Fogg’s situation, purchasing insurance with an actuarially fair premium means the cost of \(\\(250\) aligns with the expected loss from the \(25\%\) probability event where she could lose \(\\)1,000\). Therefore, \({\text{Premium}} = 0.25 \times 1,000 = \\(250\). This type of insurance is crucial for a risk-averse individual as it eliminates the uncertainty of a potential loss while being fairly priced.

Buying this insurance raises Ms. Fogg's expected utility because it transitions her spending from a probabilistic outcome to a certain one. Despite the expense of the insurance premium, the peace of mind and the insurance benefit increase her overall utility as it removes the financial risk of losing \(\\)1,000\) during her trip.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Investment in risky assets can be examined in the state-preference framework by assuming that \(W^{*}\) dollars invested in an asset with a certain return \(r\) will yield \(W^{*}(1+r)\) in both states of the world, whereas investment in a risky asset will yield \(W^{+}\left(1+r_{g}\right)\) in good times and \(W^{*}\left(1+r_{b}\right)\) in bad times (where \(r_{g}>r>r_{b}\) ). a. Graph the outcomes from the two investments. b. Show how a "mixed portfolio" containing both risk-free and risky assets could be illustrated in your graph. How would you show the fraction of wealth invested in the risky asset? c. Show how individuals' attitudes toward risk will determine the mix of risk- free and risky assets they will hold. In what case would a person hold no risky assets? d. If an individual's utility takes the constant relative risk aversion form (Equation 7.42 ), explain why this person will not change the fraction of risky assets held as his or her wealth increases. \(^{25}\)

An individual purchases a dozen eggs and must take them home. Although making trips home is costless, there is a 50 percent chance that all the eggs carried on any one trip will be broken during the trip. The individual considers two strategies: (1) take all 12 eggs in one trip; or (2) take two trips with 6 eggs in each trip. a. List the possible outcomes of each strategy and the probabilities of these outcomes. Show that, on average, 6 eggs will remain unbroken after the trip home under either strategy. b. Develop a graph to show the utility obtainable under each strategy. Which strategy will be preferable? c. Could utility be improved further by taking more than two trips? How would this possibility be affected if additional trips were costly?

In Equation 7.30 we showed that the amount an individual is willing to pay to avoid a fair gamble \((h)\) is given by \(p=0.5 E\left(h^{2}\right) r(W),\) where \(r(W)\) is the measure of absolute risk aversion at this person's initial level of wealth. In this problem we look at the size of this payment as a function of the size of the risk faced and this person's level of wealth. a. Consider a fair gamble ( \(v\) ) of winning or losing \(\$ 1 .\) For this gamble, what is \(E\left(v^{2}\right) ?\) b. Now consider varying the gamble in part (a) by multiplying each prize by a positive constant \(k\). Let \(h=k v\). What is the value of \(E\left(h^{2}\right) ?\) c. Suppose this person has a logarithmic utility function \(U(W)=\ln W\). What is a general expression for \(r(W) ?\) d. Compute the risk premium ( \(p\) ) for \(k=0.5,1\), and 2 and for \(W=10\) and \(100 .\) What do you conclude by comparing the six values?

Show that if an individual's utility-of-wealth function is convex then he or she will prefer fair gambles to income certainty and may even be willing to accept somewhat unfair gambles. Do you believe this sort of risk-taking behavior is common? What factors might tend to limit its occurrence?

Two pioneers of the field of behavioral economics, Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky (winners of the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 , conducted an experiment in which they presented different groups of subjects with one of the following two scenarios: Scenario 1: In addition to \(\$ 1,000\) up front, the subject must choose between two gambles. Gamble \(A\) offers an even chance of winning \(\$ 1,000\) or nothing. Gamble \(B\) provides \(\$ 500\) with certainty. Scenario 2: In addition to \(\$ 2,000\) given up front, the subject must choose between two gambles. Gamble \(C\) offers an even chance of losing \(\$ 1,000\) or nothing. Gamble \(D\) results in the loss of \(\$ 500\) with certainty. a. Suppose Standard Stan makes choices under uncertainty according to expected utility theory. If Stan is risk neutral, what choice would he make in each scenario? b. What choice would Stan make if he is risk averse? c. Kahneman and Tversky found 16 percent of subjects chose \(A\) in the first scenario and 68 percent chose \(C\) in the second scenario. Based on your preceding answers, explain why these findings are hard to reconcile with expected utility theory. d. Kahneman and Tversky proposed an alternative to expected utility theory, called prospect theory, to explain the experimental results. The theory is that people's current income level functions as an "anchor point" for them. They are risk averse over gains beyond this point but sensitive to small losses below this point. This sensitivity to small losses is the opposite of risk aversion: \(A\) risk-averse person suffers disproportionately more from a large than a small loss. (1) Prospect Pete makes choices under uncertainty according to prospect theory. What choices would he make in Kahneman and Tversky's experiment? Explain. (2) Draw a schematic diagram of a utility curve over money for Prospect Pete in the first scenario. Draw a utility curve for him in the second scenario. Can the same curve suffice for both scenarios, or must it shift? How do Pete's utility curves differ from the ones we are used to drawing for people like Standard \(\operatorname{Stan} ?\)

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