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Three people work independently at deciphering a message in code. The probabilities that they will decipher it are \(\frac{1}{5}, \frac{1}{4}\) and \(\frac{1}{3} .\) What is the probability that the message will be deciphered?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability that the message will be deciphered is \( \frac{3}{5} \).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Problem

We are given the probabilities that each of the three people can decipher a message independently. These probabilities are \( \frac{1}{5} \), \( \frac{1}{4} \), and \( \frac{1}{3} \). We need to find the probability that at least one of them will decipher the message.
02

Calculating the Complement Probability

Since the people are working independently, the first step is to determine the probability that none of them will decipher the message. The probability that the first person does not decipher it is \( 1 - \frac{1}{5} = \frac{4}{5} \). Similarly, for the second person, it's \( 1 - \frac{1}{4} = \frac{3}{4} \), and for the third person, it's \( 1 - \frac{1}{3} = \frac{2}{3} \).
03

Calculating the Probability of No One Deciphering

To find the probability that none of the three will decipher the message, we multiply the probability of each individual not deciphering: \( \frac{4}{5} \times \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{2}{3} \).
04

Simplifying the Complement Probability

Multiply the fractions: \( \frac{4}{5} \times \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{2}{3} = \frac{4 \times 3 \times 2}{5 \times 4 \times 3} = \frac{24}{60} \). Simplify \( \frac{24}{60} \) to \( \frac{2}{5} \). This is the probability that no one deciphers the message.
05

Finding the Required Probability

The probability that at least one of them will decipher the message is the complement of the probability that no one deciphers it. Thus, it's \( 1 - \frac{2}{5} = \frac{3}{5} \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Complement Probability
In probability theory, the concept of complement probability is quite significant. When we say "complement probability," we are talking about the probability of an event not happening. Knowing this can help us find the probability of the event itself happening.
For example, imagine you are waiting for a delivery. If the chance of it not arriving today is 30%, then the chance of it arriving is the complement: 100% minus the probability it won't arrive.
In mathematical terms, if the probability of an event A happening is represented as P(A), then the complement probability is 1 - P(A). This helps us easily calculate the likelihood of the event occurring. For instance, in the original exercise, if the probability that no one deciphers the message is found to be \(\frac{2}{5}\), the probability that at least one person does decipher it is its complement, \(1 - \frac{2}{5} = \frac{3}{5}\).
Complements are a delightful shortcut in probability, often turning complex calculations into simpler ones.
Independent Events
Independent events are a central concept in probability. Events are said to be independent when the occurrence of one does not affect the occurrence of another. A simplistic analogy could be flipping two different coins. Whatever result you get on the first coin, it doesn’t change the probability of heads or tails on the second flip.
In the context of the original problem, each person working on deciphering the message does so independently, meaning each person's success or failure doesn’t change the probability for the others. This is crucial as it allows us to multiply probabilities directly to find combined outcomes.
To apply this to the original exercise: the probability of each person not deciphering the message is obtained independently, and through the independence of these events, the joint probability is calculated as \(\frac{4}{5} \times \frac{3}{4} \times \frac{2}{3}\).
So, independence simplifies probability questions about multiple events dramatically, ensuring the calculations are straightforward.
Fraction Multiplication
Understanding fraction multiplication is essential when tackling probability problems, especially when dealing with independent events. To multiply fractions, multiply the numerators (top numbers) and the denominators (bottom numbers). Then simplify the fraction by dividing both the numerator and the denominator by their greatest common divisor if needed.
Let's break it down with an example related to the exercise: To find the probability that none of the three people decipher the message, we multiply their respective probabilities of not deciphering it: \(\frac{4}{5}, \frac{3}{4}, \frac{2}{3}\).
Here's the multiplication step-by-step:
  • First, multiply the numerators: \(4 \times 3 \times 2 = 24\).
  • Then, multiply the denominators: \(5 \times 4 \times 3 = 60\).
  • This gives us the fraction \(\frac{24}{60}\).
  • Lastly, simplify by dividing both by 12, resulting in \(\frac{2}{5}\).
By mastering fraction multiplication, one can handle a wide range of probability calculations easily.

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