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A certain marksman never misses his target, which consists of a disc of unit radius with centre \(O .\) The probability that any given shot will hit the target within a distance \(t\) of \(O\) is \(t^{2}\), for \(0 \leq t \leq 1\). The marksman fires \(n\) independendent shots at the target, and the random variable \(Y\) is the radius of the smallest circle with centre \(O\) that encloses all the shots. Determine the PDF for \(Y\) and hence find the expected area of the circle. The shot that is furthest from \(O\) is now rejected and the corresponding circle determined for the remaining \(n-1\) shots. Show that its expected area is $$ \frac{n-1}{n+1} \pi $$

Short Answer

Expert verified
The PDF for Y is f_Y(y) = 2n y^(2n-1). The expected area is πn/(n+1). After rejecting the furthest shot, the expected area is π(n-1)/(n+1).

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the probability distribution

The probability that any given shot will hit the target within a distance t of O is given by the function t^2 for 0 ≤ t ≤ 1. This represents the CDF (Cumulative Distribution Function) of the distance from the center O.
02

Derive the PDF of the distance from O

To find the PDF (Probability Density Function) corresponding to the CDF F(t) = t^2, differentiate it with respect to t. The PDF is f(t) = d(t^2)/dt = 2t, for 0 ≤ t ≤ 1.
03

Define the random variable Y

Y is the radius of the smallest circle that encloses all the shots. Therefore, Y is the maximum radius of the n shots. We denote Y as the maximum of n i.i.d random variables each having the PDF f(t) = 2t.
04

Derive the CDF of Y

The CDF of Y, denoted as F_Y(y), is the probability that all n shots are within a distance y of O. This can be written as F_Y(y) = P(Y ≤ y) = [F(y)]^n = (y^2)^n = y^(2n), for 0 ≤ y ≤ 1.
05

Derive the PDF of Y

Differentiate the CDF F_Y(y) with respect to y to obtain the PDF f_Y(y). Therefore, f_Y(y) = d(y^(2n))/dy = 2n y^(2n-1), for 0 ≤ y ≤ 1.
06

Find the expected area of the circle

The expected area of the circle is given by E[πY^2]. First, find E[Y^2] using the PDF f_Y(y). E[Y^2] = ∫[0 to 1] (2n y^(2n-1) * y^2) dy = 2n ∫[0 to 1] y^(2n+1) dy. Evaluating the integral, we get E[Y^2] = 2n / (2n+2) = n/(n+1). Thus, the expected area = πE[Y^2] = (πn) / (n+1).
07

Expected area after discarding the farthest shot

After discarding the furthest shot, we consider the maximum of the remaining n-1 shots. Using similar reasoning, if we denote this radius as Z, then the PDF for Z can be derived similarly and is f_Z(z) = 2(n-1) z^(2(n-1)-1). Following the same steps as before, E[Z^2] = (n-1) / (n+1). Therefore, the expected area is π(n-1)/(n+1).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Cumulative Distribution Function
To grasp the concept of the Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), let's start with what it represents. The CDF is a function that describes the probability that a random variable will take a value less than or equal to a certain value. In our exercise, the CDF for the marksman's shot within a distance \(t\) from the center \(O\) is given as \(t^2\) for \(0 \leq t \leq 1\). This means the probability that a shot falls within a radius \(t\) of the target's center is \(t^2\).
To find the Probability Density Function (PDF) from the CDF, we differentiate the CDF with respect to \(t\). Hence, if \(F(t) = t^2\), then the PDF \(f(t) = \frac{d}{dt} (t^2) = 2t\) for \(0 \leq t \leq 1\). The PDF tells us the likelihood of the random variable taking on a specific value.
Independent and Identically Distributed Random Variables
In our problem, the marksman fires \(n\) independent shots, meaning each shot is independent of the others. The shots are also identically distributed because the same PDF \(f(t) = 2t\) dictates their distribution.
Mathematically, when random variables are independent and identically distributed (i.i.d), their joint behavior can be analyzed using properties of a single variable repeated multiple times. For instance, we denote \(Y\) as the radius of the smallest circle that encloses all shots. Given that \(Y\) is the maximum radius among \(n\) i.i.d variables, this allows us to leverage properties like convolution to find the distributions of derived quantities like \(Y\).
Expected Value
The expected value or mean of a random variable provides insight into its central tendency. In this exercise, we seek the expected area of the circle that encloses all shots. This area is \(E[\u03C0Y^2]\).
First, we find \(E[Y^2]\) using the PDF of \(Y\), which we derived to be \(f_Y(y) = 2n y^{2n-1}\) for \(0 \leq y \leq 1\). By integrating \(y^2\) with the PDF, we get:E[Y^2] = \int_{0}^{1} 2n y^{2n-1} * y^2 dy = 2n \int_{0}^{1} y^{2n+1} dy.
Evaluating this integral gives us \(E[Y^2] = \frac{2n}{2n+2} = \frac{n}{n+1}\). Thus, the expected area is \(E[\u03C0Y^2] = \frac{\u03C0 n}{n+1}\).
Integration in Probability
Integration plays a critical role in probability and statistics. It helps calculate quantities like cumulative distribution functions, probability density functions, and expected values. In our context, integrating a PDF over a certain interval gives the probability of the random variable falling within that interval.
In our problem, to find \(E[Y^2]\), we integrate the functional form \(2n y^{2n+1}\) from \(0\) to \(1\). This integration yields the expected value of \(Y^2\), crucial for determining the expected area of the circle. It's important to understand how to set up and solve these integrals, ensuring proper limits and integrating the correct expressions relevant to the problem.
Statistical Methods in Physics
Statistical methods are invaluable in physics for predicting and understanding phenomena involving random variables. In the marksman's exercise, we're dealing with random distances of shots, where probability theory helps us predict areas and lengths.
We use concepts like CDF, PDF, and expected value—cornerstones of statistical methods. By knowing the distribution of shots, we predict the expected radius and area of enclosing circles. Slicing through complex systems, these methods provide precise expectations and help in making reasoned predictions in physics and beyond.
This approach underscores the need for integrating statistical methods rigorously in problem-solving, especially in stochastic processes found in physical systems.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

A point \(P\) is chosen at random on the circle \(x^{2}+y^{2}=1\). The random variable \(X\) denotes the distance of \(P\) from \((1,0)\). Find the mean and variance of \(X\) and the probability that \(X\) is greater than its mean.

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