Chapter 29: Problem 3
A machine manufactures 300 micro-chips per hour. The probability an individual chip is faulty is \(0.01\). Calculate the probability that (a) two, (b) four (c) more than three faulty chips are manufactured in a particular hour. Use both the binomial and Poisson approximations and compare the resulting probabilities.
Short Answer
Step by step solution
Define Variables and Distribution
Binomial Probability Calculation for Part A
Binomial Probability Calculation for Part B
Binomial Probability Calculation for Part C
Poisson Approximation Setup
Poisson Probability Calculation for Part A
Poisson Probability Calculation for Part B
Poisson Probability Calculation for Part C
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Key Concepts
These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.
Binomial Distribution
- We denote the random variable as \(X\), which here represents the number of faulty chips.
- The formula used for binomial distribution probabilities is \( P(X = k) = C(n, k) \times p^k \times (1-p)^{n-k} \), where \(n\) is the number of trials, \(k\) is the number of successes we are interested in, and \(p\) is the probability of success on a single trial.
- In this example, \( n = 300 \) and \( p = 0.01 \). This helps us calculate the probabilities for obtaining exactly two or four faulty chips using the binomial distribution.
Poisson Approximation
- For the Poisson approximation, we use the parameter \( \lambda = np \). Here, \( \lambda = 300 \times 0.01 = 3 \).
- The Poisson distribution provides the probability of a given number of events happening in a fixed interval of time or space. The formula for the Poisson probability is \( P(X = k) = \frac{\lambda^k \times e^{-\lambda}}{k!} \), where \( k \) is the number of events we are interested in.
- This approximation simplifies calculations when \( n \) is large and \( p \) is small, allowing us to easily compute probabilities for exactly two or four faulty chips.
Cumulative Probability
- In this exercise, to find the probability of more than three faulty chips, we compute the cumulative probability for up to three faulty chips: \( P(X \leq 3) \).
- Using the cumulative probability, we compute \( P(X > 3) = 1 - P(X \leq 3) \).
- This method helps in scenarios where calculating individual probabilities for an event greater than a particular value is more complex and tedious.
Faulty Manufacturing Chips
- Manufacturing processes often include a small probability of defects, like \( p = 0.01 \) in this case.
- By calculating the probability distribution, companies can predict defects and set quality controls.
- Understanding these concepts helps manufacturers improve quality assurance and reduce the likelihood of defects in future productions.