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A random sample of 328 medical doctors showed that 171 have a solo practice (Source: Practice Patterns of General Internal Medicine, American Medical Association). (a) Let \(p\) represent the proportion of all medical doctors who have a solo practice. Find a point estimate for \(p\). (b) Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(p\). Give a bricf explanation of the meaning of the interval. (c) As a news writer, how would you report the survey results regarding the percentage of medical doctors in solo practice? What is the margin of error based on a \(95 \%\) confidence interval?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) Point estimate: 0.521 (b) Confidence interval: [0.4671, 0.5749] (c) Report: 46.71% to 57.49% with 5.39% margin of error.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Point Estimate

To find the point estimate for the proportion of medical doctors in solo practice, we use the formula for the sample proportion: \( \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \). Here, \( x = 171 \) is the number of doctors with a solo practice and \( n = 328 \) is the total sample size.
02

Calculating the Point Estimate

Substitute the values into the formula: \( \hat{p} = \frac{171}{328} \approx 0.521 \). Thus, the point estimate of the proportion \( p \) is approximately 0.521.
03

Understanding Confidence Interval

A confidence interval gives a range of values within which we can be reasonably certain the true population parameter (\( p \)) lies. We will use the formula for a confidence interval for a proportion: \( \hat{p} \pm z \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}} \).
04

Calculating Confidence Interval

For a 95% confidence interval, the z-score is approximately 1.96. Calculate the standard error: \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.521 \times (1-0.521)}{328}} \approx 0.0275 \). The interval is then \( 0.521 \pm 1.96 \times 0.0275 \).
05

Finding the Confidence Interval Limits

Calculate the margin of error: \( 1.96 \times 0.0275 \approx 0.0539 \). Thus, the confidence interval is \( 0.521 \pm 0.0539 \), resulting in \([0.4671, 0.5749]\).
06

Explaining the Confidence Interval

The 95% confidence interval means we are 95% confident that the true proportion of all medical doctors who have a solo practice lies between 46.71% and 57.49%.
07

Reporting the Survey Results

As a news writer, report that according to a recent survey, between 46.71% and 57.49% of medical doctors are in solo practice, with a margin of error of approximately 5.39%.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Point Estimate
In statistics, a point estimate is a concrete number that approximates a particular population parameter based on sample data. It is calculated by taking a statistic from the sample, such as the mean or proportion, to estimate the corresponding population parameter. For our exercise, we were estimating the proportion of medical doctors who work in solo practice.

To find this, we use the formula for the sample proportion: \[ \hat{p} = \frac{x}{n} \]where:
  • \( x \) is the number of doctors with solo practice (171 in this case), and
  • \( n \) is the total number doctors in the sample (328 doctors).
Substituting the given values:\[ \hat{p} = \frac{171}{328} \approx 0.521 \]
Thus, a point estimate for the proportion \( p \) is approximately 0.521. This means that we estimate around 52.1% of doctors have a solo practice based on our sample data.
Confidence Interval
A confidence interval provides a range of values that estimates where the true population parameter lies with a specific level of certainty. It offers a more comprehensive insight compared to point estimates by incorporating uncertainty.

To build a confidence interval for a proportion, we use:\[\hat{p} \pm z \times \sqrt{\frac{\hat{p}(1-\hat{p})}{n}}\]Here, we follow these steps:
  • Determine the sample proportion \( \hat{p} \) which is 0.521.
  • Use z-score for desired confidence level (1.96 for 95%).
  • Calculate the standard error \( SE = \sqrt{\frac{0.521 \times (1-0.521)}{328}} \approx 0.0275 \).
The margin of error is then: \[1.96 \times 0.0275 \approx 0.0539\]The confidence interval is \([0.521 - 0.0539, 0.521 + 0.0539] = [0.4671, 0.5749]\).
This means we are 95% confident that the true proportion of solo practicing doctors is between 46.71% and 57.49%.
Margin of Error
The margin of error quantifies the range of uncertainty around the sample estimate, expressing how far the sample results might differ from the true population parameter. It is the plus-minus figure used when describing the range of a confidence interval.

In our exercise, we calculated:- Margin of error: \( 1.96 \times 0.0275 = 0.0539 \) or about 5.39%.This margin tells us how much higher or lower the true proportion might be compared to our point estimate of 52.1%.
Thus, when reporting results, we can be confident that the proportion isn't further away from the interval we calculated due to the sample variability captured by this margin.
Proportion
The proportion in statistics refers to a type of ratio that describes a part of a whole. In context, it tells us what fraction of the total population has a certain characteristic.

For this exercise, the characteristic of interest is doctors working in solo practice. We use the sample data to calculate the proportion. From our 328 doctors, 171 have a solo practice, so:\[\hat{p} = \frac{171}{328} \approx 0.521 \]This proportion of 0.521 or 52.1% is significant as it allows us to extrapolate and infer certain behaviors or characteristics of the larger population of all medical doctors using the given sample. It serves as the baseline from which we build further statistical analyses like confidence intervals and hypothesis tests.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Diagnostic Tests: Total Calcium Over the past several months, an adult patient has been treated for tetany (severe muscle spasms). This condition is associated with an average total calcium level below 6 mg/dl (Reference: Manual of Laboratory and Diagnostic Tests by F. Fischbach). Recently, the patient's total calcium tests gave the following readings (in mg/dl). $$ \begin{array}{ccccccc} 9.3 & 8.8 & 10.1 & 8.9 & 9.4 & 9.8 & 10.0 \\ 9.9 & 11.2 & 12.1 & & & & \end{array} $$ (a) Use a calculator to verify that \(\bar{x}=9.95\) and \(s \approx 1.02\) (b) Find a \(99.9 \%\) confidence interval for the population mean of total calcium in this patient's blood. (c) Interpretation Based on your results in part (b), does it seem that this patient still has a calcium deficiency? Explain.

Lorraine computed a confidence interval for \(\mu\) based on a sample of size \(41 .\) Since she did not know \(\sigma,\) she used \(s\) in her calculations. Lorraine used the normal distribution for the confidence interval instead of a Student's \(t\) distribution. Was her interval longer or shorter than one obtained by using an appropriate Student's \(t\) distribution? Explain.

The U.S. Geological Survey compiled historical data about Old Faithful Geyser (Yellowstone National Park) from 1870 to \(1987 .\) Some of these data are published in the book The Story of Old Faithful, by G. D. Marler (Yellowstone Association Press). Let \(x_{1}\) be a random variable that represents the time interval (in minutes) between Old Faithful's eruptions for the years 1948 to \(1952 .\) Based on 9340 observations, the sample mean interval was \(\bar{x}_{1}=63.3\) minutes. Let \(x_{2}\) be a random variable that represents the time interval in minutes between Old Faithful's eruptions for the years 1983 to \(1987 .\) Based on 25,111 observations, the sample mean time interval was \(\bar{x}_{2}=72.1\) minutes. Historical data suggest that \(\sigma_{1}=9.17\) minutes and \(\sigma_{2}=12.67\) minutes. Let \(\mu_{1}\) be the population mean of \(x_{1}\) and let \(\mu_{2}\) be the population mean of \(x_{2}\) (a) Which distribution, normal or Student's \(t,\) do we use to approximate the \(\bar{x}_{1}-\bar{x}_{2}\) distribution? Explain. (b) Compute a \(99 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu_{1}-\mu_{2}\) (c) Comment on the meaning of the confidence interval in the context of this problem. Does the interval consist of positive numbers only? negative numbers only? a mix of positive and negative numbers? Does it appear (at the \(99 \%\) confidence level) that a change in the interval length between eruptions has occurred? Many geologic experts believe that the distribution of eruption times of Old Faithful changed after the major earthquake that occurred in 1959

Basic Computation: Confidence Interval A random sample of size 81 has sample mean 20 and sample standard deviation 3 (a) Check Requirements Is it appropriate to use a Student's \(t\) distribution to compute a confidence interval for the population mean \(\mu ?\) Explain. (b) Find a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) (c) Interpretation Explain the meaning of the confidence interval you computed.

A random sample is drawn from a population with \(\sigma=12 .\) The sample mean is 30 (a) Compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) based on a sample of size 49 What is the value of the margin of error? (b) Compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) based on a sample of size \(100 .\) What is the value of the margin of error? (c) Compute a \(95 \%\) confidence interval for \(\mu\) based on a sample of size \(225 .\) What is the value of the margin of error? (d) Compare the margins of error for parts (a) through (c). As the sample size increases, does the margin of error decrease? (e) Critical Thinking Compare the lengths of the confidence intervals for parts (a) through (c). As the sample size increases, does the length of a \(90 \%\) confidence interval decrease?

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