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Consider a binomial experiment with \(n=6\) trials where the probability of success on a single trial is \(p=0.85\) (a) Find \(P(r \leq 1)\) (b) Interpretation If you conducted the experiment and got fewer than 2 successcs, would you be surpriscd? Why?

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) \( P(r \leq 1) \approx 0.0023 \). (b) It would be surprising since fewer than 2 successes is a rare event.

Step by step solution

01

Identify the Probability Distribution

The problem involves a binomial experiment with \( n = 6 \) trials and a probability of success \( p = 0.85 \) for each trial. We will use the binomial probability formula to calculate the probability of a given number of successes.
02

Write the Binomial Probability Formula

The probability of getting exactly \( r \) successes in a binomial experiment is given by the formula: \[ P(r) = \binom{n}{r} p^r (1-p)^{n-r} \]Where \( \binom{n}{r} \) is the binomial coefficient, calculated as \( \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} \).
03

Calculate \( P(r=0) \)

First, compute the probability of getting exactly 0 successes:\[ P(r=0) = \binom{6}{0} (0.85)^0 (0.15)^6 = 1 \cdot 1 \cdot (0.15)^6 \approx 0.000113 \]
04

Calculate \( P(r=1) \)

Now, compute the probability of getting exactly 1 success:\[ P(r=1) = \binom{6}{1} (0.85)^1 (0.15)^5 = 6 \cdot 0.85 \cdot (0.15)^5 \approx 0.002196 \]
05

Sum Probabilities for \( P(r \leq 1) \)

Sum the probabilities from Steps 3 and 4 to find the probability of getting 1 or fewer successes:\[ P(r \leq 1) = P(r=0) + P(r=1) = 0.000113 + 0.002196 \approx 0.002309 \]
06

Interpretation of Results

Since the probability \( P(r \leq 1) \approx 0.0023 \) is quite low, fewer than 2 successes in this experiment would be considered a rare event. Thus, it would be surprising to get fewer than 2 successes given that each trial has a high probability of success.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Probability Formula
The binomial probability formula is central to solving problems related to binomial experiments. This formula helps us calculate the probability of obtaining a certain number of successes in a fixed number of independent trials. Each trial must have only two possible outcomes, commonly referred to as 'success' and 'failure'. The formula is expressed as:\[ P(r) = \binom{n}{r} p^r (1-p)^{n-r} \] In this formula:
  • \( P(r) \) is the probability of getting exactly \( r \) successes.
  • \( n \) represents the total number of trials.
  • \( p \) is the probability of success for a single trial.
  • \( (1-p) \) is the probability of failure.
Using this formula, one can calculate the likelihood of various outcomes by adjusting the values of \( r \), \( n \), and \( p \) accordingly.
Binomial Coefficient
The binomial coefficient \( \binom{n}{r} \) plays a key role in the binomial probability formula. It represents the number of ways to choose \( r \) successes out of \( n \) trials. The coefficient can be found using the following formula:\[ \binom{n}{r} = \frac{n!}{r!(n-r)!} \] Here, the '!' symbol denotes a factorial, which means multiplying a series of descending natural numbers. For instance, \( 5! = 5 \times 4 \times 3 \times 2 \times 1 = 120 \).
  • \( n! \) is the factorial of the total number of trials.
  • \( r! \) is the factorial of the number of successes.
  • \( (n-r)! \) is the factorial of the number of failures.
The binomial coefficient essentially calculates the different ways we can arrange our successes and failures in the experiment, which is crucial for understanding the overall probability distribution.
Probability Distribution
The probability distribution in a binomial experiment details the probabilities of all possible outcomes. Since we are dealing with a binomial distribution, the focus is mainly on the possible number of successes in a set number of trials.In our specific problem, with six trials, the probability distribution would cover all possibilities from 0 to 6 successes. By calculating the probability for each number of successes, we can create a complete picture of likely outcomes.This distribution is critical as it allows us to see which results are most probable and which are rare. It highlights the usual and unusual results based on the given probability of success \( p \). Understanding this can help in interpreting results and determining whether a certain outcome is expected or surprising.
Probability of Success
In a binomial experiment, the probability of success \( p \) signifies the likelihood that a single trial will result in a success. For any given experiment, this probability remains constant for each trial. For our problem, the probability of success for each trial is given as \( p = 0.85 \). This high probability implies that each trial is likely to succeed more often than fail.Understanding the probability of success allows us to predict the expected outcome over a series of trials and assess how likely it is to encounter certain unusual events. In this case, with a high \( p \), obtaining a low number of successes is less likely, thus an occurrence of fewer than 2 successes is surprising. It showcases the rarity of achieving fewer successes when the initial likelihood of each trial succeeding is prominent.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

In a binomial experiment, is it possible for the probability of success to change from one trial to the next? Explain.

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