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Expand Your Knowledge: Geometric Mean When data consist of percentages, ratios, compounded growth rates, or other rates of change, the geometric mean is a useful measure of central tendency. For \(n\) data values, Geometric mean \(=\sqrt[n]{\text { product of the } n \text { data values, }}\) assuming all data values are positive To find the average growth factor over 5 years of an investment in a mutual fund with growth rates of \(10 \%\) the first year, \(12 \%\) the second year, \(14.8 \%\) the third year, \(3.8 \%\) the fourth year, and \(6 \%\) the fifth year, take the geometric mean of \(1.10,1.12,1.148,1.038,\) and \(1.16 .\) Find the average growth factor of this investment.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The average growth factor is approximately 1.086, meaning the investment grew by about 8.6% per year.

Step by step solution

01

Understand the Problem

We need to find the average growth factor over a specified period using the geometric mean. The given annual growth rates for an investment are given as percentages, which have been converted into decimal growth factors.
02

Convert Growth Rates to Growth Factors

The given growth rates are: 10%, 12%, 14.8%, 3.8%, and 6%. These are converted to growth factors by adding 1 to each percentage expressed as a decimal: - 10% becomes 1.10 - 12% becomes 1.12 - 14.8% becomes 1.148 - 3.8% becomes 1.038 - 6% becomes 1.06 These are the growth factors for the corresponding years.
03

Write the Formula for Geometric Mean

The formula for the geometric mean of growth factors is: \[ GM = \sqrt[n]{x_1 \cdot x_2 \cdot x_3 \cdot x_4 \cdot x_5} \]where \(n\) is the number of years (in this case, 5) and \(x_1, x_2, x_3, x_4, x_5\) are the growth factors.
04

Calculate the Product of Growth Factors

Multiply the growth factors:\[ 1.10 \times 1.12 \times 1.148 \times 1.038 \times 1.06 = 1.51632 \]This is the product of all the growth factors.
05

Calculate the Geometric Mean

Substitute the product into the geometric mean formula:\[ GM = \sqrt[5]{1.51632} \approx 1.086 \]This result is the average growth factor over the 5-year period.
06

Interpret the Result

The geometric mean is approximately 1.086, which means the investment grew on average by 8.6% per year over the 5 years.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Central Tendency
Central tendency is a way to describe the middle or typical value in a set of data. It is fundamental in understanding data sets and was most likely the main focus of your math class when the teacher first mentioned terms like mean, median, and mode.
The geometric mean is a type of central tendency. Unlike the arithmetic mean, which simply adds numbers and divides by the total count, the geometric mean multiplies the numbers and then takes the nth root, where n is the total count of numbers. This makes it especially valuable when you're dealing with growth rates or percentages, which are multiplicative by nature.
Using the geometric mean offers a more accurate reflection of the central tendency of multiplicative rates. Here's a quick reminder on when to use each:
  • Use arithmetic mean for simple averages of data like test scores.
  • Use geometric mean for percentages, ratios, or growth rates.
Growth Rate
Growth rates tell us how quickly something is increasing or decreasing over time. In investment contexts, understanding growth rates can help you make informed decisions about where to put your money. Yet, sometimes a single yearly growth rate won't give you the full picture, especially if the rates change from year to year.
This is where the geometric mean helps. By considering multiple growth rates as a series of multipliers, it allows for a consistent and clear representation of how much an investment has truly grown over a period of time.
In the given exercise, the geometric mean smooths out the annual growth rates over a 5-year period into a single average rate. This tells you, "If my investment had grown at a constant rate each year, what would that rate have been?" It's a way to find clarity in potentially messy data.
Mathematical Formula
Understanding formulas is key to solving math problems. In this exercise, the formula for the geometric mean is crucial. It's written as: \[GM = \sqrt[n]{x_1 \cdot x_2 \cdot x_3 \cdot x_4 \cdot x_5}\]This formula tells us to multiply all the growth factors of the given years, and then take the fifth root of that product (because there are 5 growth factors).
Steps:
  • First, convert each percentage increase into a growth factor by turning the percentage into a decimal and adding 1.
  • Then, multiply all the resulting growth factors together.
  • Finally, take the nth root (e.g., the 5th root if there are 5 values) of the product.
This process creates a single number representing the consistent annual growth rate over the period.
Investment Analysis
Investment analysis involves evaluating financial metrics to make informed decisions. When you assess an investment, key considerations include the potential risks and returns.
Central to this process is understanding how your investment has performed historically. Calculating average growth using methods like the geometric mean can paint a clear picture of what might be expected in the future.
By using the geometric mean:
  • You're assessing the true growth of your investment over time.
  • It's particularly effective when dealing with volatile conditions or changing growth rates.
  • Since investments can fluctuate with different rates each year, the geometric mean normalizes these rates to give a steady view of the past performance.
Using this method allows investors to base decisions not just on past performance, but also in anticipation of future trends.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

The Hill of Tara in Ireland is a place of great archaeological importance. This region has been occupied by people for more than 4000 years. Geomagnetic surveys detect subsurface anomalies in the earth's magnetic field. These surveys have led to many significant archaeological discoveries. After collecting data, the next step is to begin a statistical study. The following data measure magnetic susceptibility (centimeter-gram-second \(\times 10^{-6}\) ) on two of the main grids of the Hill of Tara (Reference: Tara: An Archaeological Survey by Conor Newman, Royal Irish Academy, Dublin). Grid \(\mathbf{E}: x\) variable $$\begin{array}{ccccccc} 13.20 & 5.60 & 19.80 & 15.05 & 21.40 & 17.25 & 27.45 \\ 16.95 & 23.90 & 32.40 & 40.75 & 5.10 & 17.75 & 28.35 \end{array}$$ Grid H: \(y\) variable $$\begin{array}{lllllll} 11.85 & 15.25 & 21.30 & 17.30 & 27.50 & 10.35 & 14.90 \\ 48.70 & 25.40 & 25.95 & 57.60 & 34.35 & 38.80 & 41.00 \\ 31.25 & & & & & \end{array}$$ (a) Compute \(\Sigma x, \Sigma x^{2}, \Sigma y,\) and \(\Sigma y^{2}\). (b) Use the results of part (a) to compute the sample mean, variance, and standard deviation for \(x\) and for \(y\). (c) Compute a \(75 \%\) Chebyshev interval around the mean for \(x\) values and also for \(y\) values. Use the intervals to compare the magnetic susceptibility on the two grids. Higher numbers indicate higher magnetic susceptibility. However, extreme values, high or low, could mean an anomaly and possible archaeological treasure. (d) Compute the sample coefficient of variation for each grid. Use the \(C V\) s to compare the two grids. If \(s\) represents variability in the signal (magnetic susceptibility) and \(\bar{x}\) represents the expected level of the signal, then \(s / \bar{x}\) can be thought of as a measure of the variability per unit of expected signal. Remember, a considerable variability in the signal (above or below average) might indicate buried artifacts. Why, in this case, would a large \(C V\) be better, or at least more exciting? Explain.

When computing the standard deviation, does it matter whether the data are sample data or data comprising the entire population? Explain.

What percentage of the general U.S. population are high school dropouts? The Statistical Abstract of the United States, 120 th edition, gives the percentage of high school dropouts by state. For convenience, the data are sorted in increasing order. $$\begin{array}{rrrrrrrrr} 5 & 6 & 7 & 7 & 7 & 7 & 8 & 8 & 8 & 8 \\ 8 & 9 & 9 & 9 & 9 & 9 & 9 & 9 & 10 & 10 \\ 10 & 10 & 10 & 10 & 10 & 10 & 11 & 11 & 11 & 11 \\ 11 & 11 & 11 & 11 & 12 & 12 & 12 & 12 & 13 & 13 \\ 13 & 13 & 13 & 13 & 14 & 14 & 14 & 14 & 14 & 15 \end{array}$$ (a) Make a box-and-whisker plot and find the interquartile range. (b) Wyoming has a dropout rate of about \(7 \% .\) Into what quartile does this rate fall?

For mallard ducks and Canada geese, what percentage of nests are successful (at least one offspring survives)? Studies in Montana, Illinois, Wyoming, Utah, and California gave the following percentages of successful nests (Reference: The Wildlife Society Press, Washington, D.C.). \(x:\) Percentage success for mallard duck nests $$56 \quad 85 \quad 52 \quad 13 \quad 39$$ \(y:\) Percentage success for Canada goose nests $$24 \quad 53 \quad 60 \quad 69 \quad 18$$ (a) Use a calculator to verify that \(\Sigma x=245 ; \Sigma x^{2}=14,755 ; \Sigma y=224 ;\) and \(\Sigma y^{2}=12,070\). (b) Use the results of part (a) to compute the sample mean, variance, and standard deviation for \(x,\) the percent of successful mallard nests. (c) Use the results of part (a) to compute the sample mean, variance, and standard deviation for \(y,\) the percent of successful Canada goose nests. (d) Use the results of parts (b) and (c) to compute the coefficient of variation for successful mallard nests and Canada goose nests. Write a brief explanation of the meaning of these numbers. What do these results say about the nesting success rates for mallards compared to those of Canada geese? Would you say one group of data is more or less consistent than the other? Explain.

In this problem, we explore the effect on the standard deviation of multiplying each data value in a data set by the same constant. Consider the data set 5,9,10,11,15 (a) Use the defining formula, the computation formula, or a calculator to compute \(s\) (b) Multiply each data value by 5 to obtain the new data set 25,45,50,55 75. Compute \(s\) (c) Compare the results of parts (a) and (b). In general, how does the standard deviation change if each data value is multiplied by a constant \(c ?\) (d) You recorded the weekly distances you bicycled in miles and computed the standard deviation to be \(s=3.1\) miles. Your friend wants to know the standard deviation in kilometers. Do you need to redo all the calculations? Given 1 mile \(\approx 1.6\) kilometers, what is the standard deviation in kilometers?

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