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Interpretation From long experience a landlord knows that the probability an apartment in a complex will not be rented is \(0.10 .\) There are 20 apartments in the complex, and the rental status of each apartment is independent of the status of the others. When a minimum of 16 apartment units are rented, the landlord can meet all monthly expenses. Which probability is more relevant to the landlord in terms of being able to meet expenses: the probability that there are exactly four unrented units or the probability that there are four or fewer unrented units? Explain.

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability of having 4 or fewer unrented units is more relevant, as it indicates meeting expenses.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Problem

We need to determine which probability is more relevant for the landlord's ability to meet monthly expenses. Specifically, we are comparing the probability of having exactly 4 unrented units with the probability of having 4 or fewer unrented units, given that at least 16 apartments need to be rented to cover expenses.
02

Set up the Binomial Distribution

The number of unrented apartments follows a binomial distribution with parameters: \( n = 20 \) apartments, and the probability of an apartment not being rented is \( p = 0.10 \). We want to calculate probabilities related to the number of unrented units, denoted by the random variable \( X \).
03

Calculate Probability of Exactly 4 Unrented Units

To find the probability of exactly 4 unrented apartments, use the binomial probability formula: \[P(X = 4) = \binom{20}{4} (0.10)^4 (0.90)^{16}\]Calculate this value to find \( P(X = 4) \).
04

Calculate Probability of 4 or Fewer Unrented Units

We need the cumulative probability of having 4 or fewer unrented units:\[P(X \leq 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)\]Calculate each term using the binomial probability formula and add them up to get \( P(X \leq 4) \).
05

Compare the Probabilities

Compare \( P(X = 4) \) with \( P(X \leq 4) \). The probability \( P(X \leq 4) \) indicates the chance of having 16 or more rented apartments, which is more relevant for the landlord's ability to meet monthly expenses, since any scenario with up to 4 unrented units enables the landlord to meet expenses.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Probability Calculation
Understanding probability calculations is essential when dealing with random events, like renting apartments. In this scenario, we are interested in the probability of apartments being unrented. Our focus is on two types of probability: *exact* and *cumulative*. 

The probability of a specific outcome, such as exactly 4 apartments remaining unrented, involves straightforward calculation using the binomial distribution. The formula is given by:
  • Binomial probability:
\[P(X = k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k}\]Here, *n* is the number of trials (20 apartments), *k* is the number of successes (unrented apartments), and *p* is the probability of a single success (0.10 for an apartment not rented).

This calculation helps us find how likely it is for exactly 4 apartments to remain unrented. It's done by substituting the appropriate values into the formula. It's a single, distinct probability value that applies only when there are precisely 4 unrented units.
Cumulative Probability
In scenarios involving multiple possible outcomes, cumulative probability provides a comprehensive perspective. It lets us understand the likelihood of a range of events occurring. This is especially valuable when determining the chance of different possible numbers of unrented apartments.

When calculating cumulative probability, we are considering all possible events up to a certain point. In this case, it's about finding the probability of having 4 or fewer unrented apartments:
  • Collective Probability Equation:
\[P(X \leq 4) = P(X = 0) + P(X = 1) + P(X = 2) + P(X = 3) + P(X = 4)\]

Each term represents a possible outcome with a distinct probability, and adding these probabilities gives us the cumulative probability!
  • Significance: For the landlord, this gives a better picture of any scenario that could ensure expenses are covered since 16 or more rented apartments will suffice.
This cumulative perspective aligns better with the goal of meeting expenses as it factors in every possible way to rent out 16 or more apartments.
Independence in Probability
In this context, independence in probability means that each apartment's rental status is not affected by others. Imagine flipping a coin: each flip doesn’t influence the next. It’s the same here!

The independence assumption is pivotal for applying the binomial distribution within this exercise. Because each apartment's rental status is independent, we use the probability of a single event (an apartment not rented) across multiple, separate trials (each apartment).

This ensures each calculation is isolated from results of other apartments, thus simplifying calculations and maintaining accuracy in predicting outcomes. So, when the landlord assesses rental probabilities, they're relying on this key assumption about independence.

Without such independence, results would skew since each event could then be intertwined, requiring more complex probability models. For the sake of simplicity and accuracy, independence here keeps calculations manageable!

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Statistical Literacy Consider two binomial distributions, with \(n\) trials each. The first distribution has a higher probability of success on each trial than the second. How does the expected value of the first distribution compare to that of the second?

Negative Binomial Distribution: Type A Blood Donors Blood type A occurs in about \(41 \%\) of the population (Reference: Laboratory and Diagnostic Tests by F. Fischbach). A clinic needs 3 pints of type A blood. A donor usually gives a pint of blood. Let \(n\) be a random variable representing the number of donors needed to provide 3 pints of type A blood. (a) Explain why a negative binomial distribution is appropriate for the random variable \(n\). Write out the formula for \(P(n)\) in the context of this application. Hint: See Problem 30 . (b) Compute \(P(n=3), P(n=4), P(n=5)\), and \(P(n=6)\). (c) What is the probability that the clinic will need from three to six donors to obtain the needed 3 pints of type A blood? (d) What is the probability that the clinic will need more than six donors to obtain 3 pints of type A blood? (e) What are the expected value \(\mu\) and standard deviation \(\sigma\) of the random variable \(n\) ? Interpret these values in the context of this application.

Quota Problem: Archaeology An archaeological excavation at Burnt Mesa Pueblo showed that about \(10 \%\) of the flaked stone objects were finished arrow points (Source: Bandelier Archaeological Excavation Project: Summer 1990 Excavations at Burnt Mesa Pueblo, edited by Kohler, Washington State University). How many flaked stone objects need to be found to be \(90 \%\) sure that at least one is a finished arrow point? Hint: Use a calculator and note that \(P(r \geq 1) \geq 0.90\) is equivalent to \(1-P(0) \geq 0.90\), or \(P(0) \geq 0.10 .\)

Statistical Literacy What does the expected value of a binomial distribution with \(n\) trials tell you?

Expected Value: Life Insurance Sara is a 60 -year-old Anglo female in reasonably good health. She wants to take out a \(\$ 50,000\) term (that is, straight death benefit) life insurance policy until she is \(65 .\) The policy will expire on her 65 th birthday. The probability of death in a given year is provided by the Vital Statistics Section of the Statistical Abstract of the United States (116th Edition). \begin{tabular}{l|ccccc} \hline\(x=\) age & 60 & 61 & 62 & 63 & 64 \\ \hline\(P\) (death at this age) & \(0.00756\) & \(0.00825\) & \(0.00896\) & \(0.00965\) & \(0.01035\) \\ \hline \end{tabular} Sara is applying to Big Rock Insurance Company for her term insurance policy. (a) What is the probability that Sara will die in her 60 th year? Using this probability and the \(\$ 50,000\) death benefit, what is the expected cost to Big Rock Insurance? (b) Repeat part (a) for years \(61,62,63\), and 64 . What would be the total expected cost to Big Rock Insurance over the years 60 through \(64 ?\) (c) Interpretation If Big Rock Insurance wants to make a profit of \(\$ 700\) above the expected total cost paid out for Sara's death, how much should it charge for the policy? (d) Interpretation If Big Rock Insurance Company charges \(\$ 5000\) for the policy, how much profit does the company expect to make?

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