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Basic Computation: Geometric Distribution Given a binomial experiment with probability of success on a single trial \(p=0.40\), find the probability that the first success occurs on trial number \(n=3\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The probability is 0.144.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding the Geometric Distribution

The geometric distribution models the number of trials until the first success in a sequence of independent and identically distributed Bernoulli trials. In this case, we want to find the probability that the first success occurs precisely on the third trial.
02

Identifying the Variables

We know that the probability of success on each trial is given by \(p = 0.40\). We want the first success to occur on the third trial, so we set \(n = 3\). That means we need two failures followed by one success.
03

Formula for Geometric Distribution

The probability that the first success occurs on trial \(n\) is given by the formula: \( P(X = n) = (1-p)^{n-1} \cdot p \). This formula accounts for \(n-1\) failures and one success.
04

Substituting Values into the Formula

Substitute the known values \(p = 0.40\) and \(n = 3\) into the formula: \( P(X = 3) = (1-0.40)^{3-1} \cdot 0.40 = (0.60)^2 \cdot 0.40 \).
05

Calculating the Probability

Calculate the probability: \( (0.60)^2 = 0.36 \). Then, multiply this by \(0.40\): \( 0.36 \cdot 0.40 = 0.144 \).
06

Conclusion

The probability that the first success occurs on trial number 3 is \(0.144\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Experiment
A binomial experiment is a statistical experiment that involves a fixed number of independent trials, where each trial has two possible outcomes. These outcomes are often referred to as "success" and "failure." In a binomial experiment, the probability of success remains constant throughout all the trials.

This type of experiment can be thought of as observing a series of coin flips, where each flip either results in a head (success) or a tail (failure). What makes a binomial experiment distinct is its repeated nature with the same conditions for each trial.

Characteristics of a binomial experiment include:
  • A fixed number of trials
  • Each trial is independent, meaning the outcome of one trial does not affect the others
  • The probability of success remains unchanged on every trial
  • Each trial results in one of two outcomes - success or failure
Understanding these characteristics helps in analyzing the probability and outcomes of various trials, highlighting the need for proper configurations and predictions through mathematical models.
Probability of Success
The probability of success in a statistical trial refers to the likelihood of achieving the desired outcome in a single trial. This probability is expressed as a decimal or fraction and does not change across the trials in a typical binomial experiment.

For instance, if the probability of success in a trial is 0.40, this indicates that for any given trial, there is a 40% chance that the outcome will be a success. This probability is used extensively in calculating various probabilities within binomial experiments and distributions.

It is crucial to distinguish between probability of success and probability of failure:
  • Probability of success (6p) is denoted as the likelihood to achieve success
  • Probability of failure is typically noted as (61-p), representing the chance of failure instead
This stable and consistent probability sets the stage for predicting outcomes using formulas such as the geometric distribution in which different probabilities of specific events like the first success are determined.
Bernoulli Trials
Bernoulli trials are the simplest form of a random experiment, where each trial results in a binary outcome: either a "success" or a "failure." Named after the mathematician Jacob Bernoulli, these trials form the basis for studying binomial experiments and distributions.

Key aspects of Bernoulli trials include their simplistic nature and the challenge of predicting the outcome without any statistical correlation between them. They are independent, meaning the result of one trial does not influence another. Furthermore, each trial has the same probability of success, which makes it easy to model within statistical frameworks.

The significance of Bernoulli trials in understanding probability extends to:
  • Methods to calculate occurrences of success over a sequence of independent trials
  • Providing groundwork for more complex probability distributions like binomial and geometric
  • Allowing precise computations and predictions through well-established formulas
This understanding is crucial for grasping how events unfold over trials and how we can mathematically ensure accuracy and predictability in processes like finding the first success in a sequence.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Statistical Literacy For a binomial experiment, what probability distribution is used to find the probability that the first success will occur on a specified trial?

Statistical Literacy When using the Poisson distribution, which parameter of the distribution is used in probability computations? What is the symbol used for this parameter?

Basic Computation: Expected Value and Standard Deviation Consider a binomial experiment with \(n=20\) trials and \(p=0.40\). (a) Find the expected value and the standard deviation of the distribution. (b) Interpretation Would it be unusual to obtain fewer than 3 successes? Explain. Confirm your answer by looking at the binomial probability distribution table.

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial: Comparisons (a) For \(n=100, p=0.02\), and \(r=2\), compute \(P(r)\) using the formula for the binomial distribution and your calculator: $$ P(r)=C_{n, t} p^{r}(1-p)^{n-r} $$ (b) For \(n=100, p=0.02\), and \(r=2\), estimate \(P(r)\) using the Poisson approximation to the binomial. (c) Compare the results of parts (a) and (b). Does it appear that the Poisson distribution with \(\lambda=n p\) provides a good approximation for \(P(r=2) ?\) (d) Repeat parts (a) to (c) for \(r=3\).

Expected Value: Life Insurance Sara is a 60 -year-old Anglo female in reasonably good health. She wants to take out a \(\$ 50,000\) term (that is, straight death benefit) life insurance policy until she is \(65 .\) The policy will expire on her 65 th birthday. The probability of death in a given year is provided by the Vital Statistics Section of the Statistical Abstract of the United States (116th Edition). \begin{tabular}{l|ccccc} \hline\(x=\) age & 60 & 61 & 62 & 63 & 64 \\ \hline\(P\) (death at this age) & \(0.00756\) & \(0.00825\) & \(0.00896\) & \(0.00965\) & \(0.01035\) \\ \hline \end{tabular} Sara is applying to Big Rock Insurance Company for her term insurance policy. (a) What is the probability that Sara will die in her 60 th year? Using this probability and the \(\$ 50,000\) death benefit, what is the expected cost to Big Rock Insurance? (b) Repeat part (a) for years \(61,62,63\), and 64 . What would be the total expected cost to Big Rock Insurance over the years 60 through \(64 ?\) (c) Interpretation If Big Rock Insurance wants to make a profit of \(\$ 700\) above the expected total cost paid out for Sara's death, how much should it charge for the policy? (d) Interpretation If Big Rock Insurance Company charges \(\$ 5000\) for the policy, how much profit does the company expect to make?

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