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Statistical Literacy Consider each distribution. Determine if it is a valid probability distribution or not, and explain your answer. (a) \begin{tabular}{l|ccc} \hline\(x\) & 0 & 1 & 2 \\ \hline\(P(x)\) & \(0.25\) & \(0.60\) & \(0.15\) \\ \hline \end{tabular} (b) \begin{tabular}{c|ccc} \hline \(\mathbf{x}\) & 0 & 1 & 2 \\ \hline\(P(x)\) & \(0.25\) & \(0.60\) & \(0.20\) \\ \hline \end{tabular}

Short Answer

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(a) is valid; (b) is not valid.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Probability Distribution

A probability distribution is a table or function that describes the likelihood of various outcomes. For a set to be a valid probability distribution, two conditions must be met: (1) Each probability value, \( P(x) \), should be between 0 and 1 inclusive, and (2) The sum of all probabilities should equal 1.
02

Evaluating Distribution (a)

For the distribution in (a), the probabilities are \( P(0) = 0.25 \), \( P(1) = 0.60 \), and \( P(2) = 0.15 \). Let's verify the sum of these probabilities: \[ 0.25 + 0.60 + 0.15 = 1.00 \] Since all probabilities are between 0 and 1, and their sum is 1, distribution (a) is a valid probability distribution.
03

Evaluating Distribution (b)

For the distribution in (b), the probabilities are \( P(0) = 0.25 \), \( P(1) = 0.60 \), and \( P(2) = 0.20 \). Let's verify the sum of these probabilities: \[ 0.25 + 0.60 + 0.20 = 1.05 \] Although each individual probability is between 0 and 1, the total sum is greater than 1. Therefore, distribution (b) is not a valid probability distribution.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

valid probability distribution
A probability distribution is said to be valid if it satisfies specific criteria that ensure the outcomes it describes are mathematically sound. Understanding this concept is crucial when dealing with probabilities because it ensures that calculations reflect real-world scenarios. To determine if a distribution is valid, it must meet two essential conditions:
  • All individual probability values, denoted as \( P(x) \), must fall within the range of 0 to 1, inclusive. This means every probability value must be a number on which we can realistically rely, indicating a possible outcome.
  • The sum of these probability values should equal exactly 1. This ensures the distribution accounts for all potential outcomes together, representing the total possibility of all events occurring.
When both of these conditions are satisfied, it guarantees that the distribution is a valid probability distribution. If either condition is not met, the distribution cannot be considered valid. For instance, if you have a probability that is greater than 1, it suggests that the probability represents more than a certain occurrence, which is mathematically impossible in probability terms.
sum of probabilities
The sum of the probabilities is one of the key elements that determine the validity of a probability distribution. The idea is that when you add up all possible probabilities of an event, they should equal 1.
This is basic because it reflects the certainty that one of the possible outcomes must happen. No matter how the events are likely to occur individually, together they account for all possible scenarios.
Imagine rolling a six-sided die. The probability of landing a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6 each time is \( \frac{1}{6} \). If you add them up:\[\frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} + \frac{1}{6} = 1\]This shows that every possible outcome is accounted for in the distribution.
When the sum of probabilities isn't equal to 1, it suggests either an overestimation or underestimation of the total probabilities, which results in a distribution that cannot occur in real-world scenarios. It is vital in probability theory to ensure that when all outcomes are considered, their collective probability should encompass all possible occurrences, encapsulating the truth that one of these events will transpire.
probability values
Probability values are the individual components that make up a probability distribution. Each of these values reflects the likelihood that a specific event will occur. For example, in a probability distribution describing a six-sided die roll, the probability of rolling a 3 can be expressed mathematically as \( P(3) \).
  • These values must be between 0 and 1. A probability value of 0 indicates that an event will never occur, while a value of 1 suggests certainty that the event will happen.
  • Probabilities cannot be negative or exceed 1, as these would not make sense in a realistic context. For instance, there cannot be a more than 100% chance of something happening.
Every probability value's alignment within these constraints ensures accurate depiction of real-world outcomes. In a defined set of outcomes, each probability value captures the realistic likelihood of each event, helping build a precise probability distribution. Correctly understanding these values leads to accurate forecast and decision-making processes based on potential events.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Critical Thinking Suppose we have a binomial experiment, and the probability of success on a single trial is \(0.02\). If there are 150 trials, is it appropriate to use the Poisson distribution to approximate the probability of three successes? Explain.

Basic Computation: Expected Value For a fundraiser, 1000 raffle tickets are sold and the winner is chosen at random. There is only one prize, \(\$ 500\) in cash. You buy one ticket. (a) What is the probability you will win the prize of \(\$ 500\) ? (b) Your expected earnings can be found by multiplying the value of the prize by the probability you will win the prize. What are your expected earnings? (c) Interpretation If a ticket costs \(\$ 2\), what is the difference between your "costs" and "expected earnings"? How much are you effectively contributing to the fundraiser?

Combination of Random Variables: Golf Norb and Gary are entered in a local golf tournament. Both have played the local course many times. Their scores are random variables with the following means and standard deviations. $$ \text { Norb, } x_{1}: \mu_{1}=115 ; \sigma_{1}=12 \quad \text { Gary, } x_{2}: \mu_{2}=100 ; \sigma_{2}=8 $$ In the tournament, Norb and Gary are not playing together, and we will assume their scores vary independently of each other. (a) The difference between their scores is \(W=x_{1}-x_{2} .\) Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the random variable \(W\). (b) The average of their scores is \(W=0.5 x_{1}+0.5 x_{2}\). Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the random variable \(W\). (c) The tournament rules have a special handicap system for each player. For Norb, the handicap formula is \(L=0.8 x_{1}-2 .\) Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the random variable \(L .\) (d) For Gary, the handicap formula is \(L=0.95 x_{2}-5 .\) Compute the mean, variance, and standard deviation for the random variable \(L .\)

Conditional Probability: Hail Damage In western Kansas, the summer density of hailstorms is estimated at about \(2.1\) storms per 5 square miles. In most cases, a hailstorm damages only a relatively small area in a square mile (Reference: Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture). A crop insurance company has insured a tract of 8 square miles of Kansas wheat land against hail damage. Let \(r\) be a random variable that represents the number of hailstorms this summer in the 8 -square-mile tract. (a) Explain why a Poisson probability distribution is appropriate for \(r\). What is \(\lambda\) for the 8 -square-mile tract of land? Round \(\lambda\) to the nearest tenth so that you can use Table 4 of Appendix II for Poisson probabilities. (b) If there already have been two hailstorms this summer, what is the probability that there will be a total of four or more hailstorms in this tract of land? Compute \(P(r \geq 4 \mid r \geq 2)\). (c) If there already have been three hailstorms this summer, what is the probability that there will be a total of fewer than six hailstorms? Compute \(P(r<6 \mid r \geq 3)\).

Rude Drivers: Tailgating Do you tailgate the car in front of you? About \(35 \%\) of all drivers will tailgate before passing, thinking they can make the car in front of them go faster (Source: Bernice Kanner, Are You Normal?, St. Martin's Press). Suppose that you are driving a considerable distance on a two-lane highway and are passed by 12 vehicles. (a) Let \(r\) be the number of vehicles that tailgate before passing. Make a histogram showing the probability distribution of \(r\) for \(r=0\) through \(r=12\). (b) Compute the expected number of vehicles out of 12 that will tailgate. (c) Compute the standard deviation of this distribution.

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