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Education: Illiteracy USA Today reported that about \(20 \%\) of all people in the United States are illiterate. Suppose you interview seven people at random off a city street. (a) Make a histogram showing the probability distribution of the number of illiterate people out of the seven people in the sample. (b) Find the mean and standard deviation of this probability distribution. Find the expected number of people in this sample who are illiterate. (c) Quota Problem How many people would you need to interview to be \(98 \%\) sure that at least seven of these people can read and write (are not illiterate)?

Short Answer

Expert verified
The expected number of illiterate people is 1.4, with a standard deviation of 1.06. Approximately 40 people should be interviewed to be 98% certain that at least 7 of them can read and write.

Step by step solution

01

Define the Binomial Distribution

This scenario involves a binomial distribution because we have a fixed number of trials (7 people), two possible outcomes (illiterate or not), and a constant probability of success (a person being illiterate is \(20\%\), or 0.2). The number of trials \(n = 7\) and the probability of success \(p = 0.2\).
02

Calculate Probabilities for Histogram

To create the probability distribution, calculate the probability of each possible number of illiterate people (from 0 to 7). The probability that exactly \(k\) people are illiterate is given by the binomial probability formula: \( P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \). Calculate these probabilities for \(k=0, 1, ..., 7\).
03

Create the Histogram

With the probabilities computed in the prior step, plot a histogram with the number of illiterate people on the x-axis (0 through 7) and the probability on the y-axis. Each bar height corresponds to the probability calculated in the previous step.
04

Calculate the Mean of the Distribution

The mean \(\mu\) of a binomial distribution is calculated using the formula \( \mu = np \). Here, \(n = 7\) and \(p = 0.2\), so \(\mu = 7 \times 0.2 = 1.4\).
05

Calculate the Standard Deviation of the Distribution

The standard deviation \(\sigma\) of a binomial distribution is given by \( \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \). Using \(n = 7\), \(p = 0.2\), the standard deviation is \(\sigma = \sqrt{7 \times 0.2 \times 0.8} \approx 1.06\).
06

Calculate Sample Size for Quota Problem

We need at least 7 people to be literate (not illiterate). The probability of being literate is \(0.8\). We set \(P(X \geq 7) \geq 0.98\) for \(X\), the number of literate people. Using the complement rule and binomial approximations, solve for the smallest \(n\) that meets this criterion, often referred to binomial tables or software for precision. This usually translates to checking \(P(X \leq n-7) \leq 0.02\).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Binomial Distribution
In statistics, a binomial distribution is a discrete probability distribution that models the number of successes in a fixed number of trials. Each trial has two possible outcomes: success or failure. In our original problem, success might be defined as a person being illiterate when interviewed on the street.

For the exercise, the parameters of the binomial distribution are:
  • Number of trials (n): The total number of interviews, which is 7.
  • Probability of success (p): The probability of any given person being illiterate, noted as 0.2.
To understand this distribution, it's crucial to calculate the probability for each possible number of successes (0 to 7 illiterate people) using the formula: \[ P(X=k) = \binom{n}{k} p^k (1-p)^{n-k} \]This formula helps answer how likely we are to find a certain number of illiterate people out of the group interviewed.
Probability Distribution
A probability distribution essentially provides a picture of how probabilities are assigned to different possible outcomes. In our context, this means finding how the probability of having 0, 1, 2, ..., up to 7 illiterate people in a sample of 7 is spread out.

By using the binomial distribution formula, we calculated these probabilities for each potential outcome. Once calculated, these probabilities are typically visualized in a histogram with the number of successes on the x-axis and the probability on the y-axis.
What makes this systematic representation powerful is its ability to anticipate outcomes over many trials. It shows us, for example, if getting 3 illiterate people would be as common or rare as getting 6.

In this way, the probability distribution helps in making informed decisions or predictions based on calculated, reliable data.
Standard Deviation
In statistics, the standard deviation quantifies the amount of variation or dispersion in a set of data values. For a binomial distribution like the one in our initial exercise, it tells us how spread out the data is from the mean.

The standard deviation for a binomial distribution can be found using the formula:\[ \sigma = \sqrt{np(1-p)} \]where \( n \) is the number of trials and \( p \) is the probability of success. In this scenario, with \( n = 7 \) and \( p = 0.2 \), the standard deviation comes out to approximately 1.06.

This means that individual data points (in terms of the count of illiterate people found in each sample of 7) will, on average, differ from the mean by about 1.06. It gives you an intuitive sense of how much you'd expect the number of illiterate people found in repeated samples to vary.
Mean
The mean, or expected value, in a probability distribution provides a measure of the center of the distribution. For a binomial distribution, it gives you a direct sense of the average or typical outcome you might expect from your trials.

The formula for finding the mean of a binomial distribution is:\[ \mu = np \]For our problem, with the number of trials \( n = 7 \) and the probability of success \( p = 0.2 \), the mean is calculated as:\[ \mu = 7 \times 0.2 = 1.4 \]

This result suggests that, on average, you can expect to find about 1.4 illiterate people in a random sample of 7 people. Even though you can't have a fraction of a person in practice, understanding the mean helps shape expectations and aids in identifying the typical behavior of your collected data.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Poisson Approximation to the Binomial: Comparisons (a) For \(n=100, p=0.02\), and \(r=2\), compute \(P(r)\) using the formula for the binomial distribution and your calculator: $$ P(r)=C_{n, t} p^{r}(1-p)^{n-r} $$ (b) For \(n=100, p=0.02\), and \(r=2\), estimate \(P(r)\) using the Poisson approximation to the binomial. (c) Compare the results of parts (a) and (b). Does it appear that the Poisson distribution with \(\lambda=n p\) provides a good approximation for \(P(r=2) ?\) (d) Repeat parts (a) to (c) for \(r=3\).

Basic Computation: Binomial Distribution Consider a binomial experiment with \(n=6\) trials where the probability of success on a single trial is \(p=0.85\). (a) Find \(P(r \leq 1)\). (b) Interpretation If you conducted the experiment and got fewer than 2 successes, would you be surprised? Why?

Expand Your Knowledge: Conditional Probability In the western United States, there are many dry land wheat farms that depend on winter snow and spring rain to produce good crops. About \(65 \%\) of the years, there is enough moisture to produce a good wheat crop, depending on the region (Reference: Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture). (a) Let \(r\) be a random variable that represents the number of good wheat crops in \(n=8\) years. Suppose the Zimmer farm has reason to believe that at least 4 out of 8 years will be good. However, they need at least 6 good years out of 8 to survive financially. Compute the probability that the Zimmers will get at least 6 good years out of 8, given what they believe is true; that is, compute \(P(6 \leq r \mid 4 \leq r) .\) See part (d) for a hint. (b) Let \(r\) be a random variable that represents the number of good wheat crops in \(n=10\) years. Suppose the Montoya farm has reason to believe that at least 6 out of 10 years will be good. However, they need at least 8 good years out of 10 to survive financially. Compute the probability that the Montoyas will get at least 8 good years out of 10 , given what they believe is true; that is, compute \(P(8 \leq r \mid 6 \leq r)\). (c) List at least three other areas besides agriculture to which you think conditional binomial probabilities can be applied. (d) Hint for solution: Review item 6 , conditional probability, in the summary of basic probability rules at the end of Section \(4.2\). Note that $$ P(A \mid B)=\frac{P(\text { Aand } B)}{P(B)} $$ and show that in part (a), $$ P(6 \leq r \mid 4 \leq r)=\frac{P((6 \leq r) \text { and }(4 \leq r))}{P(4 \leq r)}=\frac{P(6 \leq r)}{P(4 \leq r)} $$

Statistical Literacy Which of the following are continuous variables, and which are discrete? (a) Number of traffic fatalities per year in the state of Florida (b) Distance a golf ball travels after being hit with a driver (c) Time required to drive from home to college on any given day (d) Number of ships in Pearl Harbor on any given day (e) Your weight before breakfast each morning

Statistical Literacy Which of the following are continuous variables, and which are discrete? (a) Speed of an airplane (b) Age of a college professor chosen at random (c) Number of books in the college bookstore (d) Weight of a football player chosen at random (e) Number of lightning strikes in Rocky Mountain National Park on a given day

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