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Rules of Probability Given \(P\left(A^{c}\right)=0.8, P(B)=0.3\), \(P(B \mid A)=0.2:\) (a) Compute \(P(A\) and \(B)\). (b) Compute \(P(A\) or \(B)\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
(a) \( P(A \cap B) = 0.04 \); (b) \( P(A \cup B) = 0.46 \).

Step by step solution

01

Find P(A)

We know that \( P(A^c) = 0.8 \). The rule of complements tells us that \( P(A) = 1 - P(A^c) \). Therefore, \( P(A) = 1 - 0.8 = 0.2 \).
02

Use Conditional Probability to Find P(A and B)

Given \( P(B|A) = 0.2 \), we use the definition of conditional probability: \( P(B | A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} \). Rearrange to find \( P(A \cap B) = P(B | A) \cdot P(A) = 0.2 \times 0.2 = 0.04 \).
03

Apply the Rule of Addition for Probabilities

We want to find \( P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \). Substitute the known values: \( P(A \cup B) = 0.2 + 0.3 - 0.04 = 0.46 \).

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Conditional Probability
Conditional probability helps us determine the likelihood of an event occurring, given that another event has already occurred. It's like predicting the probability under certain conditions. For example, if you want to find out how likely it is to get wet while walking in the rain without an umbrella, knowing it's already raining is crucial. In our case, we were given that the probability of event B happening, provided event A has occurred, is 0.2.

This is notated as \( P(B|A) \). This notation means "the probability of B given A". The formula for conditional probability is:
\[ P(B | A) = \frac{P(A \cap B)}{P(A)} \].

The expression \( P(A \cap B) \) represents the probability that both events A and B occur at the same time. To find this, we rearrange the formula to \( P(A \cap B) = P(B | A) \cdot P(A) \). By plugging in the given values, we calculated \( P(A \cap B) = 0.04 \). This probability indicates the likelihood that events A and B occur simultaneously.
Rule of Complements
When considering probabilities, the rule of complements is a helpful tool. It involves determining the probability of an event's complement, which is everything that could happen except the event itself. If you know the probability of not rolling a 6 with a fair die, the complement helps you find the probability of actually rolling a 6. The formula for the complement is:
\[ P(A^c) = 1 - P(A) \].

In simpler terms, this states that the probability of an event not happening plus the probability of it happening will always equal 1. In our problem, we knew \( P(A^c) = 0.8 \), meaning there's an 80% chance event A does not occur. By using the rule of complements, we find \( P(A) = 0.2 \), signifying that the probability of event A occurring is 20%.
Addition Rule for Probability
The addition rule assists in finding the probability of either of two events occurring. This rule is particularly useful when events overlap, like finding the likelihood of picking a red or a blue marble from a jar, where some marbles might be red and blue. The formula to calculate this is:
\[ P(A \cup B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(A \cap B) \].

Here, \( P(A \cup B) \) represents the probability of either A or B or both happening. The term \( P(A \cap B) \), representing the probability of both events happening, is subtracted to avoid counting the overlap twice. For our problem, using the known probabilities \( P(A) = 0.2 \), \( P(B) = 0.3 \), and \( P(A \cap B) = 0.04 \), we calculated that \( P(A \cup B) = 0.46 \). This result tells us there is a 46% chance that either event A or event B, or both, will occur.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

(a) Explain why \(-0.41\) cannot be the probability of some event. (b) Explain why \(1.21\) cannot be the probability of some event. (c) Explain why \(120 \%\) cannot be the probability of some event. (d) Can the number \(0.56\) be the probability of an event? Explain.

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