/*! This file is auto-generated */ .wp-block-button__link{color:#fff;background-color:#32373c;border-radius:9999px;box-shadow:none;text-decoration:none;padding:calc(.667em + 2px) calc(1.333em + 2px);font-size:1.125em}.wp-block-file__button{background:#32373c;color:#fff;text-decoration:none} Problem 8 The following data represent ann... [FREE SOLUTION] | 91Ó°ÊÓ

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The following data represent annual percentage returns on Vanguard Total Bond Index for a sequence of recent years. This fund represents nearly all publicly traded U.S. bonds (Reference: Morningstar Mutual Fund Analysis). $$ \begin{array}{llllllllllll} 7.1 & 9.7 & -2.7 & 18.2 & 3.6 & 9.4 & 8.6 & -0.8 & 11.4 & 8.4 & 8.3 & 0.8 \end{array} $$ (i) Convert this sequence of numbers to a sequence of symbols \(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{B}\), where A indicates a value above the median and B a value below the median. (ii) Test the sequence for randomness about the median. Use \(\alpha=0.05\).

Short Answer

Expert verified
The sequence is random about the median with a median of 8.35.

Step by step solution

01

Calculate the Median

The first step is to arrange the data in ascending order to determine the median. Arranging the data gives: \[-2.7, -0.8, 0.8, 3.6, 7.1, 8.3, 8.4, 8.6, 9.4, 9.7, 11.4, 18.2\] Since there are 12 data points, the median is the average of the 6th and 7th values.\[\text{Median} = \frac{8.3 + 8.4}{2} = 8.35\]
02

Convert to Symbols A and B

Now, convert the data points to 'A' if they are above the median (8.35) and 'B' if they are below the median.\[(\{7.1, 9.7, -2.7, 18.2, 3.6, 9.4, 8.6, -0.8, 11.4, 8.4, 8.3, 0.8\}) \rightarrow (B, A, B, A, B, A, A, B, A, A, B, B)\]
03

Count Runs

A 'run' is a consecutive sequence of identical symbols. From our sequence \((B, A, B, A, B, A, A, B, A, A, B, B)\), we identify the runs:- Run 1: B- Run 2: A- Run 3: B- Run 4: A- Run 5: B- Run 6: AA- Run 7: B- Run 8: AA- Run 9: BBThus, there are 9 runs.
04

Calculate Expected Number of Runs

The expected number of runs, \(E(R)\), and the standard deviation of the number of runs, \(\sigma(R)\), for two symbol categories \(A\) and \(B\) can be computed as follows:\[E(R) = \frac{2 n_1 n_2}{n} + 1\]\[\sigma(R) = \sqrt{\frac{2 n_1 n_2 (2 n_1 n_2 - n)}{n^2 (n - 1)}}\]where \(n_1 = 6\) (number of A's), \(n_2 = 6\) (number of B's), and \(n = 12\).\[E(R) = \frac{2 \times 6 \times 6}{12} + 1 = 7\]\[\sigma(R) = \sqrt{\frac{2 \times 6 \times 6 (2 \times 6 \times 6 - 12)}{12^2 \times (12 - 1)}} = \sqrt{2.727} \approx 1.65\]
05

Perform the Test for Randomness

Using the observed number of runs \(R = 9\), compare it to the expected number of runs \(E(R) = 7\). Compute the test statistic, \(Z\), for runs:\[Z = \frac{R - E(R)}{\sigma(R)} = \frac{9 - 7}{1.65} \approx 1.21\]With a significance level \(\alpha = 0.05\) and a two-tailed test, check the critical value for \(Z\), which is approximately \(\pm1.96\). Since \(1.21\) is within this range, we fail to reject the null hypothesis of randomness.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Median Calculation
In statistics, the median is a measure of central tendency. It identifies the midpoint of a dataset. To find the median, you first arrange the numbers in ascending order and then pinpoint the middle value(s). If the number of observations is odd, the median is simply the middle number. For even numbers of observations, calculate the median by averaging the two middle numbers.

In our exercise, we start with 12 data points:
  • First, sort the data: \[-2.7, -0.8, 0.8, 3.6, 7.1, 8.3, 8.4, 8.6, 9.4, 9.7, 11.4, 18.2\]
  • The two middle numbers are 8.3 and 8.4, because the set has 12 numbers (an even set).
  • Calculate the median: \[ \text{Median} = \frac{8.3 + 8.4}{2} = 8.35 \]
The median value, 8.35, divides the dataset in half, helping us to differentiate between higher and lower values.
Randomness Test
A randomness test, in the context of statistics, helps determine if data points arise in a random order or show a specific pattern. For this, one commonly uses the Runs Test, which assesses sequences of symbols to establish evidence for randomness.

Randomness implies that there is no discernible pattern in the arrangement of data points around the median. This characteristic is essential in various fields for ensuring unbiased results.

In our task, the randomness test uses symbols 'A' and 'B'. This symbolic representation allows us to convert numeric data into categories, making it easier to spot patterns or test randomness.
Symbolic Representation
Symbolic representation involves translating numerical data into simple symbols like 'A' and 'B'. This technique is especially useful when examining data in terms of its relationship to some central value, such as the median.

In this exercise,
  • Assign the symbol 'A' for numbers above the median (8.35).
  • Assign 'B' for numbers below the median.
The transformation makes the non-numeric sequence: (B, A, B, A, B, A, A, B, A, A, B, B). A symbolic approach emphasizes the movement or 'run' of data around the central point, simplifying further analysis, such as the Runs Test.
Run Test
The Run Test is a non-parametric test that assesses the sequence of data, specifically the order in which symbols appear. The goal is to identify 'runs'—consecutive sequences of identical symbols—and determine if their occurrence is consistent with randomness. A run is a sequence of similar items, like consecutive 'A's or 'B's in symbolic data.

To perform the Run Test:
  • Identify sequential groupings or runs.
  • Count the number of these runs.
In our case, there are nine runs: B, A, B, A, B, AA, B, AA, BB.

The expected number of runs \[ E(R) \] is calculated using \[ E(R) = \frac{2n_1n_2}{n} + 1 \], where \[ n_1 \] and \[ n_2 \] are the numbers of A's and B's, respectively. Compute the standard deviation, \[ \sigma(R) \], and the test statistic, \[ Z \], for further analysis. Finally, compare the observed value \[ Z \] against critical values to determine if there's evidence against randomness.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Twenty-two fourth-grade children were randomly divided into two groups. Group A was taught spelling by a phonetic method. Group B was taught spelling by a memorization method. At the end of the fourth grade, all children were given a standard spelling exam. The scores are as follows. $$ \begin{array}{l|cccccccccccc} \hline \text { Group A } & 77 & 95 & 83 & 69 & 85 & 92 & 61 & 79 & 87 & 93 & 65 & 78 \\ \hline \text { Group B } & 62 & 90 & 70 & 81 & 63 & 75 & 80 & 72 & 82 & 94 & 65 & 79 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Use a \(1 \%\) level of significance to test the claim that there is no difference in the test score distributions based on instruction method.

An army psychologist gave a random sample of seven soldiers a test to measure sense of humor and another test to measure aggressiveness. Higher scores mean greater sense of humor or more aggressiveness. $$ \begin{array}{l|rrrrrrr} \hline \text { Soldier } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 \\ \hline \text { Score on humor test } & 60 & 85 & 78 & 90 & 93 & 45 & 51 \\ \text { Score on aggressiveness test } & 78 & 42 & 68 & 53 & 62 & 50 & 76 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ (i) Ranking the data with rank 1 for highest score on a test, make a table of ranks to be used in a Spearman rank correlation test. (ii) Using a \(0.05\) level of significance, test the claim that rank in humor has a monotone-decreasing relation to rank in aggressiveness.

Are yields for organic farming different from conventional farming yields? Independent random samples from method A (organic farming) and method B (conventional farming) gave the following information about yield of sweet corn (in tons/acre) (Reference: Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture). $$ \begin{array}{l|llllllllllll} \hline \text { Method A } & 6.88 & 6.86 & 7.12 & 5.91 & 6.80 & 6.92 & 6.25 & 6.98 & 7.21 & 7.33 & 5.85 & 6.72 \\ \hline \text { Method B } & 5.71 & 6.93 & 7.05 & 7.15 & 6.79 & 6.87 & 6.45 & 7.34 & 5.68 & 6.78 & 6.95 & \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Use a \(5 \%\) level of significance to test the claim that there is no difference between the yield distributions.

A data-processing company has a training program for new salespeople. After completing the training program, each trainee is ranked by his or her instructor. After a year of sales, the same class of trainees is again ranked by a company supervisor according to net value of the contracts they have acquired for the company. The results for a random sample of 11 salespeople trained in the previous year follow, where \(x\) is rank in training class and \(y\) is rank in sales after 1 year. Lower ranks mean higher standing in class and higher net sales. $$ \begin{array}{l|rrrrrrrrrrr} \hline \text { Person } & 1 & 2 & 3 & 4 & 5 & 6 & 7 & 8 & 9 & 10 & 11 \\ \hline x \text { rank } & 6 & 8 & 11 & 2 & 5 & 7 & 3 & 9 & 1 & 10 & 4 \\ y \text { rank } & 4 & 9 & 10 & 1 & 6 & 7 & 8 & 11 & 3 & 5 & 2 \\ \hline \end{array} $$ Using a \(0.05\) level of significance, test the claim that the relation between \(x\) and \(y\) is monotone (either increasing or decreasing).

Many economists and financial experts claim that the price level of a stock or bond is not random; rather, the price changes tend to follow a random sequence over time. The following data represent annual percentage returns on Vanguard Total Stock Index for a sequence of recent years. This fund represents nearly all publicly traded U.S. stocks. $$ \begin{array}{rrrrrrrrr} 10.4 & 10.6 & -0.2 & 35.8 & 21.0 & 31.0 & 23.3 & 23.8 & -10.6 \\ -11.0 & -21.0 & 12.8 & & & & & & \end{array} $$ (i) Convert this sequence of numbers to a sequence of symbols \(\mathrm{A}\) and \(\mathrm{B}\), where A indicates a value above the median and B a value below the median. (ii) Test the sequence for randomness about the median. Use \(\alpha=0.05\).

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