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Die A die is a cube with dots on each face. The faces have \(1,2,3,4,5\), or 6 dots. The table below is a computer simulation (from the software package Minitab) of the results of rolling a fair die 20 times. $$ \begin{aligned} &\text { DATA DISPLAY }\\\ &\begin{array}{c|cccccccccc} \text { ROW } & \text { C1 } & \text { C2 } & \text { C3 } & \text { C4 } & \text { C5 } & \text { C6 } & \text { C7 } & \text { C8 } & \text { C9 } & \text { C10 } \\ \hline 1 & 5 & 2 & 2 & 2 & 5 & 3 & 2 & 3 & 1 & 4 \\ 2 & 3 & 2 & 4 & 5 & 4 & 5 & 3 & 5 & 3 & 4 \end{array} \end{aligned} $$ (a) Assume that each number in the table corresponds to the number of dots on the upward face of the die. Is it appropriate that the same number appears more than once? Why? What is the outcome of the fourth roll? (b) If we simulate more rolls of the die, do you expect to get the same sequence of outcomes? Why or why not?

Short Answer

Expert verified
Yes, numbers can repeat; the fourth roll is 2. Future sets will differ due to randomness.

Step by step solution

01

Understanding Repeated Numbers

When a die is rolled, the outcome on top can range from 1 to 6, as it is a cube with six faces. Since the die roll is independent of prior rolls, each number from 1 to 6 has an equal chance of appearing on any roll. Therefore, it is entirely appropriate for the same number to appear more than once in the simulation results. This is evident in our simulation where, for example, the number '2' appears multiple times.
02

Identifying the Fourth Roll

To find the outcome of the fourth roll, simply locate the fourth column in the first row of the data display. The numbers corresponding to this row and column indicate the die result of the fourth roll. According to the table, the fourth roll yielded the number '2'.
03

Predicting Future Outcomes

Die rolls are random events, meaning each roll is independent of the others. Due to random variability and independence, even if we simulate more rolls, we should not expect to produce the exact same sequence of numbers. Although the frequency of each face may statistically balance over a large number of rolls, the sequence will almost always differ.

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Key Concepts

These are the key concepts you need to understand to accurately answer the question.

Random Variables
In probability theory, a random variable is a fundamental concept used to quantify the outcome of a random event. Imagine rolling a die. The result, represented by the number of dots on the upper face, is a random variable. Random variables can take on values from a defined set based on the underlying event's probability distribution. For a standard six-sided die, the random variable can take any value from
  • 1
  • 2
  • 3
  • 4
  • 5
  • 6
Each number has an equal probability of 1/6 assuming a fair die. Random variables come in two types: discrete and continuous. The values from rolling a die represent a discrete random variable because the outcomes are distinct and countable. Understanding random variables helps in analyzing and predicting probabilities in a controlled, measurable way.
Independent Events
Independent events are those occurrences where the result of one event does not influence the outcome of another. When rolling a die, each throw is independent of the previous one. This means that getting a '3' on the first roll does not affect the probability of rolling a '3' on the second. This independence clarifies why repeated sequences of the same number or different ones can occur randomly.
The phrase "random events" emphasizes the concept of unpredictability; randomness suggests that past outcomes do not determine future results. Therefore, in a series of die rolls, each result should be considered as starting from scratch. While on a broader scale, the distribution of results tends to be uniform, each roll remains an independent event. This independence is critical in statistical experiments and simulations, enabling us to analyze probability scenarios accurately.
Simulation
Simulation is a powerful tool in probability theory that emulates real-life processes through computer models. It can be particularly helpful for conducting experiments that would be difficult or impossible to perform in reality. Imagine the exercise of rolling a die 20 times to gather immediate data. Simulations can do this quickly, offering insights into potential outcomes and probability distribution without the need for physical setups.
In our die-rolling example, the simulation provides a sequence of numbers mimicking actual die results. The repetitive task underscores the unpredictability and variability of random processes, aligning perfectly with theoretical expectations. The simulation is guided by assumptions of randomness, ensuring that each virtual roll remains independent of the others, similar to real-life operations. By running simulations, we can observe patterns over numerous trials, helping to confirm theoretical predictions or highlight unexpected trends, making it an invaluable educational and research tool.

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Most popular questions from this chapter

Consider a completely randomized experiment in which a control group is given a placebo for congestion relief and a treatment group is given a new drug for congestion relief. Describe a double-blind procedure for this experiment and discuss some benefits of such a procedure.

Modern Managed Hospitals (MMH) is a national for-profit chain of hospitals. Management wants to survey patients discharged this past year to obtain patient satisfaction profiles. They wish to use a sample of such patients. Several sampling techniques are described below. Categorize each technique as simple random sample, stratified sample, systematic sample, cluster sample, or convenience sample. (a) Obtain a list of patients discharged from all MMH facilities. Divide the patients according to length of hospital stay \((2\) days or less, \(3-7\) days, \(8-14\) days, more than 14 days). Draw simple random samples from each group. (b) Obtain lists of patients discharged from all MMH facilities. Number these patients, and then use a random-number table to obtain the sample. (c) Randomly select some MMH facilitics from each of five geographic regions, and then include all the patients on the discharge lists of the selected hospitals. (d) At the beginning of the year, instruct each MMH facility to survey every 500th patient discharged. (e) Instruct each MMH facility to survey 10 discharged patients this week and send in the results.

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